Toronto Raptors at Charlotte Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Feb 17, 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · at Hornets · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Raptors and Hornets
TOR	This season	CHA
3-3	Record	3-4
3-3	ATS	3-4
3-3	O/U	1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 110–106 · win probability TOR 61%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 216.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

TOR 2, CHA 2 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOR 13.5%, CHA 18.8%. Forced: TOR 20.8%, CHA 14.5%

TORBig

CHA offense vs TOR defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: TOR plays 105.5 a game (8th fastest), CHA 98.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points

CHASmall

TOR offense vs CHA defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

CHASmall

Home court

CHA at home. This season: CHA 2-2 at home, TOR 1-2 away

Even

Three-pointers

TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%; CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 38.1% and 50.8% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4; CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOR 32.6%, CHA 31.6%. Defensive: TOR 73.4%, CHA 76.6%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOR 27.7, CHA 18.9. Allowed: TOR 41.5, CHA 28.4

Context

Schedule so far

TOR has played the 21st-hardest schedule, CHA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8; CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOR 100%, CHA 100%. Transfers in: TOR 0, CHA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: TOR away; CHA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 26	vs ATL	W118–100WU
Feb 28	@ IND	W122–104WU
Mar 2	@ MIA	W128–114WO

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 25	@ ORL	L90–121LU
Feb 26	@ HOU	L101–105WU
Feb 28	vs SAC	W134–90WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

TOR 13–5 CHATOR leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · TOR 10-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 7, 2025-26	TOR 97 @ CHA 96	CHA +2.5	CHA W
Dec 5, 2025-26	CHA 111 @ TOR 86	TOR -6.5	CHA W
Nov 29, 2025-26	TOR 111 @ CHA 118	CHA +6.5	CHA W
Nov 17, 2025-26	CHA 108 @ TOR 110	TOR -7.5	CHA W
Apr 9, 2024-25	CHA 96 @ TOR 126	TOR -11.5	TOR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Raptors has the better starters

Position by position: Raptors 2, Hornets 0, even 3

RaptorsBetterHornets

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

Even

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

Even

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

Even

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

TORSmall

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

TORBig

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

RaptorsBetterHornets

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

CHASmall

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

TORBig

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

TORBig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

TORBig

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTOR betterCHA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOR118.2 #10

CHA98.3 #30

Points per possession

TOR1.11 #13

CHA0.99 #30

Pace (possessions)

TOR105.5 #8

CHA98.3 #30

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOR51.0 #22

CHA48.4 #29

3-point %

TOR32.0 #24

CHA29.6 #28

3-point attempt rate

TOR38.1 #25

CHA50.8 #2

Free throw rate

TOR27.7 #18

CHA18.9 #30

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOR13.5 #3

CHA18.8 #29

Offensive rebound rate

TOR32.6 #2

CHA31.6 #4

Assists per game

TOR29.2 #2

CHA21.6 #30

Defense

Points allowed

TOR110.3 #13

CHA106.4 #4

Points allowed per possession

TOR1.05 #5

CHA1.09 #15

Opponent effective FG%

TOR53.4 #16

CHA53.1 #15

Opponent 3-point %

TOR36.7 #21

CHA37.5 #24

Turnovers forced

TOR20.8 #1

CHA14.5 #23

Defensive rebound rate

TOR73.4 #13

CHA76.6 #5

Steals per game

TOR12.7 #2

CHA7.1 #25

Blocks per game

TOR4.3 #19

CHA5.0 #15

TOR		CHA
Scoring
118.2 #10	Points per game	98.3 #30
1.11 #13	Points per possession	0.99 #30
105.5 #8	Pace (possessions)	98.3 #30
Shooting
51.0 #22	Effective FG%	48.4 #29
32.0 #24	3-point %	29.6 #28
38.1 #25	3-point attempt rate	50.8 #2
27.7 #18	Free throw rate	18.9 #30
Possessions
13.5 #3	Turnover rate	18.8 #29
32.6 #2	Offensive rebound rate	31.6 #4
29.2 #2	Assists per game	21.6 #30
Defense
110.3 #13	Points allowed	106.4 #4
1.05 #5	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #15
53.4 #16	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #15
36.7 #21	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #24
20.8 #1	Turnovers forced	14.5 #23
73.4 #13	Defensive rebound rate	76.6 #5
12.7 #2	Steals per game	7.1 #25
4.3 #19	Blocks per game	5.0 #15

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Raptors @ Hornets

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Raptors

Hornets

Raptors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Raptors

Hornets