Sacramento Kings at Atlanta Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Feb 14, 1:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · at Hawks

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kings and Hawks
SAC	This season	ATL
0-6	Record	3-4
1-5	ATS	3-4
5-1	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ATL 125–111 · win probability ATL 85%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 235.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

SAC 1, ATL 6 · 2026-27 so far

ATLBig

ATL offense vs SAC defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

ATLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SAC 15.9%, ATL 13.8%. Forced: SAC 14.6%, ATL 18.3%

ATLBig

Three-pointers

SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%; ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 38.0% and 44.7% of their shots

ATLBig

SAC offense vs ATL defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

ATLSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4; ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5

SACSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: SAC 26.4, ATL 23.4. Allowed: SAC 31.2, ATL 32.1

ATLSmall

Home court

ATL at home. This season: ATL 1-2 at home, SAC 0-4 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SAC 22.9%, ATL 27.1%. Defensive: SAC 73.7%, ATL 70.9%

Context

Schedule so far

SAC has played the 8th-hardest schedule, ATL the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: SAC plays 106.0 a game (6th fastest), ATL 105.6 (7th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8; ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SAC 100%, ATL 100%. Transfers in: SAC 0, ATL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-4	—
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: SAC away; ATL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 17	vs IND	W114–109WU
Feb 25	@ CLE	L126–132WO
Feb 27	@ MEM	L105–136LO

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 16	vs TOR	L100–118LU
Feb 17	@ BKN	W141–107WO
Feb 25	@ CHI	L123–126LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

SAC 3–7 ATLATL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · ATL has won the last 3 meetings · SAC 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 28, 2025-26	SAC 113 @ ATL 123	ATL -13.5	SAC W
Nov 12, 2025-26	ATL 133 @ SAC 100	SAC +4.5	ATL W
Nov 18, 2024-25	ATL 109 @ SAC 108	SAC -4.5	ATL W
Nov 1, 2024-25	SAC 123 @ ATL 115	ATL +6.5	SAC W
Jan 22, 2023-24	ATL 107 @ SAC 122	SAC -8.5	SAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hawks has the better starters

Position by position: Kings 0, Hawks 5, even 0

KingsBetterHawks

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

ATLBig

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

ATLBig

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

ATLSmall

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

ATLBig

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

ATLSmall

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

KingsBetterHawks

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

ATLSmall

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

ATLBig

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

ATLBig

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

ATLBig

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

ATLBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSAC betterATL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SAC109.3 #22

ATL116.3 #13

Points per possession

SAC1.03 #28

ATL1.10 #16

Pace (possessions)

SAC106.0 #6

ATL105.6 #7

Shooting

Effective FG%

SAC51.0 #23

ATL52.6 #19

3-point %

SAC30.4 #27

ATL32.8 #22

3-point attempt rate

SAC38.0 #27

ATL44.7 #11

Free throw rate

SAC26.4 #20

ATL23.4 #26

Possessions

Turnover rate

SAC15.9 #19

ATL13.8 #4

Offensive rebound rate

SAC22.9 #28

ATL27.1 #18

Assists per game

SAC24.5 #23

ATL30.7 #1

Defense

Points allowed

SAC128.3 #29

ATL115.4 #19

Points allowed per possession

SAC1.21 #29

ATL1.10 #17

Opponent effective FG%

SAC60.4 #30

ATL54.5 #22

Opponent 3-point %

SAC39.2 #27

ATL31.9 #7

Turnovers forced

SAC14.6 #22

ATL18.3 #2

Defensive rebound rate

SAC73.7 #12

ATL70.9 #19

Steals per game

SAC8.0 #21

ATL9.4 #8

Blocks per game

SAC2.3 #30

ATL3.7 #29

SAC		ATL
Scoring
109.3 #22	Points per game	116.3 #13
1.03 #28	Points per possession	1.10 #16
106.0 #6	Pace (possessions)	105.6 #7
Shooting
51.0 #23	Effective FG%	52.6 #19
30.4 #27	3-point %	32.8 #22
38.0 #27	3-point attempt rate	44.7 #11
26.4 #20	Free throw rate	23.4 #26
Possessions
15.9 #19	Turnover rate	13.8 #4
22.9 #28	Offensive rebound rate	27.1 #18
24.5 #23	Assists per game	30.7 #1
Defense
128.3 #29	Points allowed	115.4 #19
1.21 #29	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #17
60.4 #30	Opponent effective FG%	54.5 #22
39.2 #27	Opponent 3-point %	31.9 #7
14.6 #22	Turnovers forced	18.3 #2
73.7 #12	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #19
8.0 #21	Steals per game	9.4 #8
2.3 #30	Blocks per game	3.7 #29

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Kings @ Hawks

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Kings

Hawks

Hawks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kings

Hawks