Indiana Pacers at Sacramento Kings: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Feb 17, 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · at Kings

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pacers and Kings
IND	This season	SAC
2-5	Record	0-6
3-4	ATS	1-5
3-4	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects IND 119–116 · win probability IND 58%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 235.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: IND has more of the edges

IND 4, SAC 1 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

IND has played the 29th-hardest schedule, SAC the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less

INDBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: IND 53.9 and allows 53.9; SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4

INDSmall

Three-pointers

IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%; SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%. Threes are 43.1% and 38.0% of their shots

INDSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: IND 14.8%, SAC 15.9%. Forced: IND 14.9%, SAC 14.6%

INDSmall

IND offense vs SAC defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: IND plays 103.1 a game (15th fastest), SAC 106.0 (6th). Faster games mean more points

SACSmall

Home court

SAC at home. This season: SAC 0-2 at home, IND 2-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8; SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8

Even

SAC offense vs IND defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: IND 31.2, SAC 26.4. Allowed: IND 32.1, SAC 31.2

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: IND 23.1%, SAC 22.9%. Defensive: IND 72.7%, SAC 73.7%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: IND 100%, SAC 100%. Transfers in: IND 0, SAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	—

Venue/role: IND away; SAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 18	@ POR	L119–127WO
Feb 26	@ MIN	L104–124LU
Feb 28	vs TOR	L104–122LU

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 25	@ CLE	L126–132WO
Feb 27	@ MEM	L105–136LO
Feb 28	@ CHA	L90–134LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

IND 6–4 SACIND leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · IND 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 10, 2025-26	IND 109 @ SAC 114	SAC -3.5	SAC W
Dec 8, 2025-26	SAC 105 @ IND 116	IND -3.5	IND W
Mar 31, 2024-25	SAC 109 @ IND 111	IND -3.5	SAC W
Dec 22, 2024-25	IND 122 @ SAC 95	SAC -3.5	IND W
Feb 2, 2023-24	SAC 133 @ IND 122	IND +3.5	SAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pacers has the better starters

Position by position: Pacers 3, Kings 0, even 2

PacersBetterKings

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

INDBig

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

Even

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

INDSmall

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

INDBig

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

Even

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

PacersBetterKings

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

INDSmall

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

Even

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

INDBig

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

INDBig

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

SACBig

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestIND betterSAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

IND112.9 #18

SAC109.3 #22

Points per possession

IND1.10 #17

SAC1.03 #28

Pace (possessions)

IND103.1 #15

SAC106.0 #6

Shooting

Effective FG%

IND53.9 #14

SAC51.0 #23

3-point %

IND34.1 #18

SAC30.4 #27

3-point attempt rate

IND43.1 #15

SAC38.0 #27

Free throw rate

IND31.2 #12

SAC26.4 #20

Possessions

Turnover rate

IND14.8 #10

SAC15.9 #19

Offensive rebound rate

IND23.1 #27

SAC22.9 #28

Assists per game

IND28.0 #7

SAC24.5 #23

Defense

Points allowed

IND116.7 #23

SAC128.3 #29

Points allowed per possession

IND1.13 #23

SAC1.21 #29

Opponent effective FG%

IND53.9 #19

SAC60.4 #30

Opponent 3-point %

IND35.9 #20

SAC39.2 #27

Turnovers forced

IND14.9 #19

SAC14.6 #22

Defensive rebound rate

IND72.7 #16

SAC73.7 #12

Steals per game

IND6.9 #27

SAC8.0 #21

Blocks per game

IND4.0 #26

SAC2.3 #30

IND		SAC
Scoring
112.9 #18	Points per game	109.3 #22
1.10 #17	Points per possession	1.03 #28
103.1 #15	Pace (possessions)	106.0 #6
Shooting
53.9 #14	Effective FG%	51.0 #23
34.1 #18	3-point %	30.4 #27
43.1 #15	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #27
31.2 #12	Free throw rate	26.4 #20
Possessions
14.8 #10	Turnover rate	15.9 #19
23.1 #27	Offensive rebound rate	22.9 #28
28.0 #7	Assists per game	24.5 #23
Defense
116.7 #23	Points allowed	128.3 #29
1.13 #23	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #29
53.9 #19	Opponent effective FG%	60.4 #30
35.9 #20	Opponent 3-point %	39.2 #27
14.9 #19	Turnovers forced	14.6 #22
72.7 #16	Defensive rebound rate	73.7 #12
6.9 #27	Steals per game	8.0 #21
4.0 #26	Blocks per game	2.3 #30

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Pacers @ Kings

What could decide it: IND has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pacers

Kings

Pacers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pacers

Kings