Chicago Bulls at LA Clippers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Feb 17, 10:30 PM ETIntuit Dome · at Clippers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bulls and Clippers
CHI	This season	LAC
1-5	Record	1-5
3-3	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAC 122–112 · win probability LAC 77%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 234.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAC has more of the edges

CHI 1, LAC 3 · 2026-27 so far

LACBig

Three-pointers

CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%; LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%. Threes are 47.9% and 42.3% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: CHI plays 109.8 a game (1st fastest), LAC 101.7 (23rd). Faster games mean more points

LACSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0; LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9

LACSmall

Home court

LAC at home. This season: LAC 1-1 at home, CHI 1-3 away

Context

Schedule so far

CHI has played the 14th-hardest schedule, LAC the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CHISmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHI 29.2%, LAC 26.5%. Defensive: CHI 69.8%, LAC 70.9%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4; LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHI 38.3, LAC 28.0. Allowed: CHI 33.5, LAC 24.7

Even

LAC offense vs CHI defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHI 16.2%, LAC 20.4%. Forced: CHI 14.7%, LAC 17.0%

Even

CHI offense vs LAC defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHI 100%, LAC 100%. Transfers in: CHI 0, LAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-2	—
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: CHI away; LAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 25	vs ATL	W126–123WU
Feb 27	vs BKN	L115–123LO
Mar 1	@ DET	L110–126LO

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 25	vs UTAH	W115–103WU
Feb 28	vs POR	L97–116LU
Mar 2	@ POR	L97–116LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CHI 4–6 LACLAC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CHI 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 13, 2025-26	CHI 108 @ LAC 119	LAC -13.5	CHI W
Jan 20, 2025-26	LAC 110 @ CHI 138	CHI -2.5	CHI W
Feb 26, 2024-25	LAC 122 @ CHI 117	CHI +9.5	CHI W
Jan 20, 2024-25	CHI 112 @ LAC 99	LAC -5.5	CHI W
Mar 14, 2023-24	LAC 126 @ CHI 111	CHI +6.5	LAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Clippers has the better starters

Position by position: Bulls 1, Clippers 2, even 2

BullsBetterClippers

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

CHIBig

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

Even

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

LACSmall

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

LACBig

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

Even

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

BullsBetterClippers

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Even

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

Even

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

CHIBig

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

LACBig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

LACBig

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHI betterLAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHI113.5 #16

LAC106.5 #28

Points per possession

CHI1.04 #26

LAC1.04 #27

Pace (possessions)

CHI109.8 #1

LAC101.7 #23

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHI48.2 #30

LAC52.9 #18

3-point %

CHI28.1 #30

LAC38.6 #5

3-point attempt rate

CHI47.9 #4

LAC42.3 #17

Free throw rate

CHI38.3 #1

LAC28.0 #17

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHI16.2 #20

LAC20.4 #30

Offensive rebound rate

CHI29.2 #9

LAC26.5 #21

Assists per game

CHI24.3 #25

LAC24.3 #26

Defense

Points allowed

CHI129.3 #30

LAC113.8 #15

Points allowed per possession

CHI1.17 #27

LAC1.13 #22

Opponent effective FG%

CHI56.0 #26

LAC56.9 #28

Opponent 3-point %

CHI39.3 #28

LAC38.2 #26

Turnovers forced

CHI14.7 #21

LAC17.0 #8

Defensive rebound rate

CHI69.8 #24

LAC70.9 #20

Steals per game

CHI8.7 #17

LAC11.3 #3

Blocks per game

CHI5.0 #12

LAC4.2 #22

CHI		LAC
Scoring
113.5 #16	Points per game	106.5 #28
1.04 #26	Points per possession	1.04 #27
109.8 #1	Pace (possessions)	101.7 #23
Shooting
48.2 #30	Effective FG%	52.9 #18
28.1 #30	3-point %	38.6 #5
47.9 #4	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #17
38.3 #1	Free throw rate	28.0 #17
Possessions
16.2 #20	Turnover rate	20.4 #30
29.2 #9	Offensive rebound rate	26.5 #21
24.3 #25	Assists per game	24.3 #26
Defense
129.3 #30	Points allowed	113.8 #15
1.17 #27	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #22
56.0 #26	Opponent effective FG%	56.9 #28
39.3 #28	Opponent 3-point %	38.2 #26
14.7 #21	Turnovers forced	17.0 #8
69.8 #24	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #20
8.7 #17	Steals per game	11.3 #3
5.0 #12	Blocks per game	4.2 #22

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Bulls @ Clippers

What could decide it: LAC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bulls

Clippers

Clippers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bulls

Clippers