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NBA · Thu, Feb 18

Pacers @ Trail Blazers

Moda Center · at Trail Blazers
#25INDPacers
@
#9PORTrail Blazers
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
INDThis seasonPOR
2-5Record4-1
3-4ATS3-2
3-4O/U2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects POR 121–108 · win probability POR 82%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 229.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

IND 0, POR 7 · 2026-27 so far
PORBig
POR offense vs IND defense
Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings
PORBig
IND offense vs POR defense
Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
PORBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: IND 23.1%, POR 27.6%. Defensive: IND 72.7%, POR 77.3%
PORBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: IND 31.2, POR 35.9. Allowed: IND 32.1, POR 27.8
PORBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: IND 53.9 and allows 53.9; POR 56.2 and allows 51.3
PORSmall
Three-pointers
IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%; POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 43.1% and 51.5% of their shots
PORSmall
Home court
POR at home. This season: POR 1-1 at home, IND 2-2 away
Even
Recent form
Last 5: IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8; POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4
Context
Schedule so far
IND has played the 29th-hardest schedule, POR the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: IND plays 103.1 a game (15th fastest), POR 103.5 (14th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: IND 14.8%, POR 14.6%. Forced: IND 14.9%, POR 14.8%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: IND 100%, POR 100%. Transfers in: IND 0, POR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelPOR -13.0
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model229.9
Model edge—
Projected score
IND 108.4 · POR 121.4
Win probability
POR 82%
1st half
Spread
POR -7.2
Total
115.1
Projected score
IND 53.9 · POR 61.1
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Trail Blazers has the better starters

Position by position: Pacers 1, Trail Blazers 3, even 1
PacersBetterTrail Blazers
G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70
PORSmall
G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89
G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32
Even
G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34
G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65
PORSmall
F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82
F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74
INDSmall
F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44
C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10
PORBig
C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74
PacersBetterTrail Blazers
IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3
PORBig
POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8
IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8
PORBig
POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4
Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players
PORSmall
Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players
PORBig
Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players
Bench-26.3 · 5 players
PORBig
Bench+15.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestIND betterPOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Pacers
Guards
A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min
Forwards
P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min
Centers
J. Huff17 min
Out
I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut
Trail Blazers
Guards
D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min
Forwards
D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min
Centers
D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min
Out
J. MorantOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
INDPOR
Scoring
112.9 #18Points per game120.6 #4
1.10 #17Points per possession1.16 #5
103.1 #15Pace (possessions)103.5 #14
Shooting
53.9 #14Effective FG%56.2 #4
34.1 #183-point %35.3 #12
43.1 #153-point attempt rate51.5 #1
31.2 #12Free throw rate35.9 #3
Possessions
14.8 #10Turnover rate14.6 #9
23.1 #27Offensive rebound rate27.6 #14
28.0 #7Assists per game26.2 #17
Defense
116.7 #23Points allowed109.2 #10
1.13 #23Points allowed per possession1.06 #10
53.9 #19Opponent effective FG%51.3 #8
35.9 #20Opponent 3-point %32.1 #8
14.9 #19Turnovers forced14.8 #20
72.7 #16Defensive rebound rate77.3 #3
6.9 #27Steals per game8.6 #18
4.0 #26Blocks per game4.2 #21
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Lvs Nets90–98
  • L@ Heat125–145
  • Lvs 76ers109–114
  • L@ Bucks102–110
  • W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Jazz112–90
  • Lvs Grizzlies103–124
  • W@ Lakers136–129
  • W@ Kings128–120
  • Wvs Suns124–83

A week or more of rest.