Phoenix Suns at Philadelphia 76ers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Feb 17, 7:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · at 76ers

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Suns and 76ers
PHX	This season	PHI
1-3	Record	6-1
0-4	ATS	4-3
3-1	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHI 114–109 · win probability PHI 64%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 223.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

PHX 1, PHI 7 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

PHX has played the 3rd-hardest schedule, PHI the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PHISmall

PHX offense vs PHI defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

PHISmall

Three-pointers

PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%; PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 45.1% and 39.5% of their shots

PHISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHX 22.8, PHI 28.7. Allowed: PHX 31.1, PHI 28.5

PHISmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7; PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8

PHISmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHX 15.2%, PHI 12.3%. Forced: PHX 17.1%, PHI 17.0%

PHISmall

Recent form

Last 4: PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5; PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6

PHXSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHX 28.3%, PHI 19.9%. Defensive: PHX 65.1%, PHI 70.8%

PHISmall

Home court

PHI at home. This season: PHI 3-1 at home, PHX 0-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: PHX plays 101.3 a game (26th fastest), PHI 102.4 (19th). Faster games mean more points

Even

PHI offense vs PHX defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHX 100%, PHI 100%. Transfers in: PHX 0, PHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: PHX away; PHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 25	@ NO	W118–116LO
Feb 27	vs NO	W118–116LO
Mar 1	vs WSH	W112–93WU

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 25	@ BKN	W104–97LU
Feb 27	@ NY	W98–93WU
Mar 1	@ CLE	W114–106WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

PHX 7–3 PHIPHX leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · PHX 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 7, 2025-26	PHI 109 @ PHX 103	PHX -2.5	PHI W
Jan 20, 2025-26	PHX 116 @ PHI 110	PHI +2.5	PHX W
Jan 6, 2024-25	PHX 109 @ PHI 99	PHI +1.5	PHX W
Nov 4, 2024-25	PHI 116 @ PHX 118	PHX -7.5	PHI W
Mar 20, 2023-24	PHI 102 @ PHX 115	PHX -9.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: Suns 1, 76ers 3, even 1

SunsBetter76ers

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

PHXSmall

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

PHISmall

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

PHIBig

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

Even

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

PHIBig

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

SunsBetter76ers

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

PHISmall

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

Even

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

PHIBig

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

PHIBig

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

PHXBig

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHX betterPHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHX112.0 #19

PHI108.7 #23

Points per possession

PHX1.12 #12

PHI1.06 #22

Pace (possessions)

PHX101.3 #26

PHI102.4 #19

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHX54.4 #13

PHI50.8 #25

3-point %

PHX35.0 #16

PHI34.0 #20

3-point attempt rate

PHX45.1 #10

PHI39.5 #23

Free throw rate

PHX22.8 #27

PHI28.7 #16

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHX15.2 #15

PHI12.3 #1

Offensive rebound rate

PHX28.3 #11

PHI19.9 #30

Assists per game

PHX27.5 #8

PHI25.1 #22

Defense

Points allowed

PHX124.5 #27

PHI104.9 #2

Points allowed per possession

PHX1.21 #30

PHI1.03 #3

Opponent effective FG%

PHX58.7 #29

PHI49.8 #4

Opponent 3-point %

PHX43.9 #30

PHI32.1 #9

Turnovers forced

PHX17.1 #7

PHI17.0 #9

Defensive rebound rate

PHX65.1 #30

PHI70.8 #21

Steals per game

PHX9.0 #15

PHI9.6 #7

Blocks per game

PHX5.3 #10

PHI5.0 #14

PHX		PHI
Scoring
112.0 #19	Points per game	108.7 #23
1.12 #12	Points per possession	1.06 #22
101.3 #26	Pace (possessions)	102.4 #19
Shooting
54.4 #13	Effective FG%	50.8 #25
35.0 #16	3-point %	34.0 #20
45.1 #10	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #23
22.8 #27	Free throw rate	28.7 #16
Possessions
15.2 #15	Turnover rate	12.3 #1
28.3 #11	Offensive rebound rate	19.9 #30
27.5 #8	Assists per game	25.1 #22
Defense
124.5 #27	Points allowed	104.9 #2
1.21 #30	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #3
58.7 #29	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #4
43.9 #30	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #9
17.1 #7	Turnovers forced	17.0 #9
65.1 #30	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #21
9.0 #15	Steals per game	9.6 #7
5.3 #10	Blocks per game	5.0 #14

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Suns @ 76ers

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Suns

76ers

76ers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Suns

76ers