Phoenix Suns at Washington Wizards: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Feb 15, 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · at Wizards

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Suns and Wizards
PHX	This season	WSH
1-3	Record	3-3
0-4	ATS	3-3
3-1	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHX 115–115 · win probability PHX 51%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

PHX 4, WSH 5 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

PHX has played the 3rd-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHX 22.8, WSH 34.2. Allowed: PHX 31.1, WSH 21.8

WSHBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1

PHXSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHX 28.3%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: PHX 65.1%, WSH 68.0%

WSHSmall

Three-pointers

PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 45.1% and 37.6% of their shots

PHXSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHX 15.2%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: PHX 17.1%, WSH 13.3%

WSHSmall

Recent form

Last 4: PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4

WSHSmall

Home court

WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, PHX 0-2 away

PHXSmall

WSH offense vs PHX defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

PHXSmall

PHX offense vs WSH defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: PHX plays 101.3 a game (26th fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHX 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: PHX 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: PHX away; WSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 17	@ PHI	L103–109LU
Feb 25	@ NO	W118–116LO
Feb 27	vs NO	W118–116LO

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 17	vs MIA	L117–140LO
Feb 25	@ MIL	W128–116WO
Feb 27	@ UTAH	W133–110WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

PHX 8–2 WSHPHX leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · PHX has won the last 6 meetings · PHX 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 11, 2025-26	WSH 93 @ PHX 112	PHX -15.5	PHX W
Dec 29, 2025-26	PHX 115 @ WSH 101	WSH +10.5	PHX W
Jan 25, 2024-25	WSH 109 @ PHX 119	PHX -14.5	WSH W
Jan 16, 2024-25	PHX 130 @ WSH 123	WSH +11.5	WSH W
Feb 4, 2023-24	PHX 140 @ WSH 112	WSH +11.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Suns has the better starters

Position by position: Suns 2, Wizards 1, even 2

SunsBetterWizards

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

PHXBig

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

Even

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

WSHBig

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

PHXSmall

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

No call

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

SunsBetterWizards

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Even

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

Even

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

PHXBig

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

WSHBig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

PHXBig

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHX betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHX112.0 #19

WSH110.5 #20

Points per possession

PHX1.12 #12

WSH1.08 #19

Pace (possessions)

PHX101.3 #26

WSH102.3 #20

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHX54.4 #13

WSH52.1 #20

3-point %

PHX35.0 #16

WSH29.3 #29

3-point attempt rate

PHX45.1 #10

WSH37.6 #28

Free throw rate

PHX22.8 #27

WSH34.2 #5

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHX15.2 #15

WSH14.6 #8

Offensive rebound rate

PHX28.3 #11

WSH20.9 #29

Assists per game

PHX27.5 #8

WSH24.5 #24

Defense

Points allowed

PHX124.5 #27

WSH109.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

PHX1.21 #30

WSH1.07 #11

Opponent effective FG%

PHX58.7 #29

WSH48.1 #1

Opponent 3-point %

PHX43.9 #30

WSH28.7 #1

Turnovers forced

PHX17.1 #7

WSH13.3 #27

Defensive rebound rate

PHX65.1 #30

WSH68.0 #28

Steals per game

PHX9.0 #15

WSH7.2 #24

Blocks per game

PHX5.3 #10

WSH5.3 #9

PHX		WSH
Scoring
112.0 #19	Points per game	110.5 #20
1.12 #12	Points per possession	1.08 #19
101.3 #26	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #20
Shooting
54.4 #13	Effective FG%	52.1 #20
35.0 #16	3-point %	29.3 #29
45.1 #10	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #28
22.8 #27	Free throw rate	34.2 #5
Possessions
15.2 #15	Turnover rate	14.6 #8
28.3 #11	Offensive rebound rate	20.9 #29
27.5 #8	Assists per game	24.5 #24
Defense
124.5 #27	Points allowed	109.7 #11
1.21 #30	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #11
58.7 #29	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #1
43.9 #30	Opponent 3-point %	28.7 #1
17.1 #7	Turnovers forced	13.3 #27
65.1 #30	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #28
9.0 #15	Steals per game	7.2 #24
5.3 #10	Blocks per game	5.3 #9

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Suns @ Wizards

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Suns

Wizards

Suns has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Suns

Wizards