Kaseya Center · at Heat
LineNo line yet
Total—
 SA | This season | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 2-4 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 3-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects SA 120–114 · win probability SA 68%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 233.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: SA has more of the edges
SA 4, MIA 2 · 2026-27 so far
SABigSA offense vs MIA defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings
SABigRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SA 27.2%, MIA 24.5%. Defensive: SA 75.8%, MIA 72.3%
SASmallShooting
Effective FG%: SA 53.3 and allows 52.1; MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8
MIASmallMIA offense vs SA defense
Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
MIASmallHome court
MIA at home. This season: MIA 1-3 at home, SA 2-0 away
SASmallThree-pointers
SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%; MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%. Threes are 39.0% and 41.7% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
SA has played the 15th-hardest schedule, MIA the 11th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SA 13.1%, MIA 14.1%. Forced: SA 15.7%, MIA 15.4%
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: SA plays 104.3 a game (11th fastest), MIA 106.2 (5th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: SA 24.5, MIA 27.3. Allowed: SA 21.7, MIA 23.2
Even
Recent form
Last 5: SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0; MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SA 100%, MIA 100%. Transfers in: SA 0, MIA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelSA -6.5
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model233.8
Model edge—
Projected score
SA 120.2 · MIA 113.7
Win probability
SA 68%
1st half
Spread
SA -3.8
Total
116.9
Projected score
SA 60.4 · MIA 56.5
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% |
| MIAlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% | 3-3 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
SA 3–7 MIAMIA leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · SA has won the last 2 meetings · SA 5-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2025-26 | SA 136 @ MIA 111 | MIA +3.5 | SA W |
| Oct 30, 2025-26 | MIA 101 @ SA 107 | SA -5.5 | SA W |
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | MIA 105 @ SA 103 | SA +2.5 | SA W |
| Jan 19, 2024-25 | SA 107 @ MIA 128 | MIA -2.5 | MIA W |
| Feb 7, 2023-24 | SA 104 @ MIA 116 | MIA -6.5 | MIA W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Spurs
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
OKC
OKCL 104-116
−10.5
23
vs
HOU
HOUL 110-114
−8.5
24
@
DAL
DALW 122-106
+1.5
27
vs
SAC
SACW 130-103
+7.5
28
@
UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−7.5
31
vs
MIN
MINW 121-111
−2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsOKC
OKCL 104-116
−9.5
23
vsHOU
HOUL 110-114
−0.5
24
@DAL
DALW 122-106
−1.5
27
vsSAC
SACW 130-103
+0.5
28
@UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−4.5
31
vsMIN
MINW 121-111
+1.5
over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Heat
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vsMIN
MINL 106-131
−26.5
23
vs
DET
DETL 111-128
−14.5
24
@
CHA
CHAL 110-115
−9.5
26
vsDAL
DALL 109-113
−11.5
28
@
ATL
ATLW 129-117
+14.5
30
vs
IND
INDW 145-125
+11.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsMIN
MINL 106-131
−3.5
23
vsDET
DETL 111-128
+3.5
24
@CHA
CHAL 110-115
−2.5
26
vsDAL
DALL 109-113
−18.5
28
@ATL
ATLW 129-117
+2.5
30
vsIND
INDW 145-125
+33.5
over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Spurs has the better starters
Position by position: Spurs 3, Heat 0, even 2
SpursBetterHeat
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast
Score 98
←SABig
G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast
Score 48
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 53
←SASmall
G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 20
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast
Score 84
=Even
F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast
Score 89
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast
Score 69
=Even
F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 62
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast
Score 98
←SASmall
C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast
Score 66
SpursBetterHeat
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
←SABig
MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
→MIASmall
MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
←SABig
Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
→MIABig
Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
←SABig
Bench-1.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSA betterMIA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
SpursGuards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
HeatGuards
D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min
Forwards
G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min
Centers
B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min
Out
T. HardawayDay-To-Day
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
SA117.3 #12MIA118.3 #9Points per possession
SA1.12 #10MIA1.11 #14Pace (possessions)
SA104.3 #11MIA106.2 #5Shooting
Effective FG%
SA53.3 #16MIA54.6 #123-point %
SA34.9 #17MIA34.1 #193-point attempt rate
SA39.0 #24MIA41.7 #20Free throw rate
SA24.5 #24MIA27.3 #19Possessions
Turnover rate
SA13.1 #2MIA14.1 #5Offensive rebound rate
SA27.2 #16MIA24.5 #24Assists per game
SA27.5 #9MIA28.8 #3Defense
Points allowed
SA110.2 #12MIA121.5 #26Points allowed per possession
SA1.06 #6MIA1.15 #26Opponent effective FG%
SA52.1 #11MIA56.8 #27Opponent 3-point %
SA37.3 #23MIA40.6 #29Turnovers forced
SA15.7 #14MIA15.4 #18Defensive rebound rate
SA75.8 #7MIA72.3 #17Steals per game
SA9.2 #10MIA8.3 #19Blocks per game
SA7.0 #1MIA5.0 #13| SA | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 117.3 #12 | Points per game | 118.3 #9 |
| 1.12 #10 | Points per possession | 1.11 #14 |
| 104.3 #11 | Pace (possessions) | 106.2 #5 |
| Shooting | ||
| 53.3 #16 | Effective FG% | 54.6 #12 |
| 34.9 #17 | 3-point % | 34.1 #19 |
| 39.0 #24 | 3-point attempt rate | 41.7 #20 |
| 24.5 #24 | Free throw rate | 27.3 #19 |
| Possessions | ||
| 13.1 #2 | Turnover rate | 14.1 #5 |
| 27.2 #16 | Offensive rebound rate | 24.5 #24 |
| 27.5 #9 | Assists per game | 28.8 #3 |
| Defense | ||
| 110.2 #12 | Points allowed | 121.5 #26 |
| 1.06 #6 | Points allowed per possession | 1.15 #26 |
| 52.1 #11 | Opponent effective FG% | 56.8 #27 |
| 37.3 #23 | Opponent 3-point % | 40.6 #29 |
| 15.7 #14 | Turnovers forced | 15.4 #18 |
| 75.8 #7 | Defensive rebound rate | 72.3 #17 |
| 9.2 #10 | Steals per game | 8.3 #19 |
| 7.0 #1 | Blocks per game | 5.0 #13 |
Spurs
4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Timberwolves121–111
- W@ Jazz117–111
- Wvs Kings130–103
- W@ Mavericks122–106
- Lvs Rockets110–114
A week or more of rest.
Heat
2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Pacers145–125
- W@ Hawks129–117
- Lvs Mavericks109–113
- L@ Hornets110–115
- Lvs Pistons111–128
A week or more of rest.