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NBA · Thu, Feb 18

Spurs @ Timberwolves

Target Center · at Timberwolves · Conference game
#3SASpurs
@
#2MINTimberwolves
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SAThis seasonMIN
4-2Record4-3
2-4ATS6-1
2-4O/U4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 115–113 · win probability MIN 56%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 227.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

SA 2, MIN 6 · 2026-27 so far
MINBig
Three-pointers
SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%; MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 39.0% and 42.8% of their shots
MINSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: SA 53.3 and allows 52.1; MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5
Context
Schedule so far
SA has played the 15th-hardest schedule, MIN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SA 13.1%, MIN 15.1%. Forced: SA 15.7%, MIN 15.6%
MINSmall
Recent form
Last 5: SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0; MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4
SASmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: SA 24.5, MIN 26.1. Allowed: SA 21.7, MIN 28.9
MINSmall
Home court
MIN at home. This season: MIN 2-1 at home, SA 2-0 away
MINSmall
MIN offense vs SA defense
Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
MINSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SA 27.2%, MIN 30.0%. Defensive: SA 75.8%, MIN 75.4%
Even
SA offense vs MIN defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: SA plays 104.3 a game (11th fastest), MIN 105.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SA 100%, MIN 100%. Transfers in: SA 0, MIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelMIN -2.0
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model227.7
Model edge—
Projected score
SA 112.8 · MIN 114.8
Win probability
MIN 56%
1st half
Spread
MIN -1.0
Total
114.0
Projected score
SA 56.5 · MIN 57.5
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Spurs 1, Timberwolves 2, even 2
SpursBetterTimberwolves
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast Score 98
SABig
G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 53
MINBig
G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast Score 84
Even
F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 69
MINSmall
F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast Score 98
Even
C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98
SpursBetterTimberwolves
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
Even
MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
Even
MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
SABig
Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
MINBig
Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
SABig
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSA betterMIN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Spurs
Guards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
Timberwolves
Guards
A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min
Forwards
J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min
Centers
R. Gobert30 min
Out
A. EdwardsOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SAMIN
Scoring
117.3 #12Points per game120.0 #6
1.12 #10Points per possession1.13 #8
104.3 #11Pace (possessions)105.4 #9
Shooting
53.3 #16Effective FG%55.8 #6
34.9 #173-point %37.6 #6
39.0 #243-point attempt rate42.8 #16
24.5 #24Free throw rate26.1 #21
Possessions
13.1 #2Turnover rate15.1 #12
27.2 #16Offensive rebound rate30.0 #7
27.5 #9Assists per game27.3 #11
Defense
110.2 #12Points allowed108.7 #8
1.06 #6Points allowed per possession1.04 #4
52.1 #11Opponent effective FG%50.5 #5
37.3 #23Opponent 3-point %31.2 #6
15.7 #14Turnovers forced15.6 #17
75.8 #7Defensive rebound rate75.4 #8
9.2 #10Steals per game9.0 #13
7.0 #1Blocks per game4.3 #20
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Spurs

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Timberwolves121–111
  • W@ Jazz117–111
  • Wvs Kings130–103
  • W@ Mavericks122–106
  • Lvs Rockets110–114

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ Spurs111–121
  • Wvs Clippers127–101
  • Lvs Warriors114–119
  • L@ Cavaliers125–127
  • Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.