Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Feb 28, 1:00 PM ETMoody Center · at Spurs · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nuggets and Spurs
DEN	This season	SA
3-2	Record	4-2
2-3	ATS	2-4
3-2	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SA 120–111 · win probability SA 73%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SA has more of the edges

DEN 2, SA 4 · 2026-27 so far

SABig

SA offense vs DEN defense

Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%; SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%. Threes are 40.9% and 39.0% of their shots

SASmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 16.4%, SA 13.1%. Forced: DEN 15.9%, SA 15.7%

DENSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 31.3, SA 24.5. Allowed: DEN 21.5, SA 21.7

SASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 27.5%, SA 27.2%. Defensive: DEN 70.5%, SA 75.8%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: DEN plays 102.1 a game (21st fastest), SA 104.3 (11th). Faster games mean more points

SASmall

Home court

SA at home. This season: SA 2-2 at home, DEN 2-1 away

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 18th-hardest schedule, SA the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2; SA 53.3 and allows 52.1

Even

DEN offense vs SA defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2; SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, SA 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, SA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	2-1	—
SA LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: DEN away; SA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
SA UUOUO	2-4	33%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
SAlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 1	vs BKN	W107–103LO
Mar 3	vs SA	W128–118WO
Mar 7	vs MIN	L98–110

Spurs

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 3	@ DEN	L118–128LO
Mar 5	@ HOU	L110–114LU
Mar 7	vs NY	L90–94LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

DEN 11–7 SADEN leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 3 meetings · DEN 8-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 12, 2025-26	DEN 128 @ SA 118	SA -9.5	DEN W
Apr 4, 2025-26	SA 134 @ DEN 136	DEN +1.5	DEN W
Mar 12, 2025-26	DEN 136 @ SA 131	SA -3.5	DEN W
Nov 28, 2025-26	SA 139 @ DEN 136	DEN -7.5	SA W
Apr 2, 2024-25	SA 113 @ DEN 106	DEN -2.5	SA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Spurs

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsOKC	L 104-116	+1.5	L −10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 23	vsHOU	L 110-114	-4.5	L −8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@DAL	W 122-106	-14.5	W +1.5	229.5	U 228
Oct 27	vsSAC	W 130-103	-19.5	W +7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 28	@UTAH	W 117-111	-13.5	L −7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsMIN	W 121-111	-12.5	L −2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−10.5

HOU

L 110-114

−8.5

DAL

W 122-106

+1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+7.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−7.5

MIN

W 121-111

−2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−9.5

HOU

L 110-114

−0.5

DAL

W 122-106

−1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+0.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−4.5

MIN

W 121-111

+1.5

over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Nuggets 1, Spurs 1, even 3

NuggetsBetterSpurs

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

SABig

G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast Score 98

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

Even

G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 53

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

Even

G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast Score 84

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

DENSmall

G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 69

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

Even

F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast Score 98

NuggetsBetterSpurs

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Even

SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

SABig

SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

SABig

Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

SABig

Bench+19.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterSA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

Spurs

Guards

D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min

Forwards

V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min

Centers

L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN114.0 #15

SA117.3 #12

Points per possession

DEN1.13 #9

SA1.12 #10

Pace (possessions)

DEN102.1 #21

SA104.3 #11

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN54.7 #11

SA53.3 #16

3-point %

DEN37.4 #7

SA34.9 #17

3-point attempt rate

DEN40.9 #22

SA39.0 #24

Free throw rate

DEN31.3 #11

SA24.5 #24

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN16.4 #21

SA13.1 #2

Offensive rebound rate

DEN27.5 #15

SA27.2 #16

Assists per game

DEN26.8 #14

SA27.5 #9

Defense

Points allowed

DEN115.2 #18

SA110.2 #12

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.12 #20

SA1.06 #6

Opponent effective FG%

DEN54.2 #20

SA52.1 #11

Opponent 3-point %

DEN35.0 #15

SA37.3 #23

Turnovers forced

DEN15.9 #11

SA15.7 #14

Defensive rebound rate

DEN70.5 #22

SA75.8 #7

Steals per game

DEN10.2 #5

SA9.2 #10

Blocks per game

DEN4.4 #18

SA7.0 #1

DEN		SA
Scoring
114.0 #15	Points per game	117.3 #12
1.13 #9	Points per possession	1.12 #10
102.1 #21	Pace (possessions)	104.3 #11
Shooting
54.7 #11	Effective FG%	53.3 #16
37.4 #7	3-point %	34.9 #17
40.9 #22	3-point attempt rate	39.0 #24
31.3 #11	Free throw rate	24.5 #24
Possessions
16.4 #21	Turnover rate	13.1 #2
27.5 #15	Offensive rebound rate	27.2 #16
26.8 #14	Assists per game	27.5 #9
Defense
115.2 #18	Points allowed	110.2 #12
1.12 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #6
54.2 #20	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #11
35.0 #15	Opponent 3-point %	37.3 #23
15.9 #11	Turnovers forced	15.7 #14
70.5 #22	Defensive rebound rate	75.8 #7
10.2 #5	Steals per game	9.2 #10
4.4 #18	Blocks per game	7.0 #1

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Spurs

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Timberwolves121–111
W@ Jazz117–111
Wvs Kings130–103
W@ Mavericks122–106
Lvs Rockets110–114

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets @ Spurs

What could decide it: SA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Spurs

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

Spurs