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NBA · Mon, Feb 15

76ers @ Mavericks

American Airlines Center · at Mavericks
#16PHI76ers
@
#17DALMavericks
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
PHIThis seasonDAL
6-1Record4-2
4-3ATS4-2
2-5O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAL 114–111 · win probability DAL 58%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 224.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges

PHI 3, DAL 6 · 2026-27 so far
PHIBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: PHI 12.3%, DAL 16.8%. Forced: PHI 17.0%, DAL 14.5%
Context
Schedule so far
PHI has played the 20th-hardest schedule, DAL the 2nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
DALBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8; DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3
DALSmall
Three-pointers
PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%; DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%. Threes are 39.5% and 42.1% of their shots
DALSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: PHI 19.9%, DAL 27.8%. Defensive: PHI 70.8%, DAL 69.4%
DALSmall
Recent form
Last 5: PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6; DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6
DALSmall
PHI offense vs DAL defense
Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
PHISmall
DAL offense vs PHI defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings
DALSmall
Home court
DAL at home. This season: DAL 2-1 at home, PHI 3-0 away
PHISmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: PHI 28.7, DAL 21.4. Allowed: PHI 28.5, DAL 27.2
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: PHI plays 102.4 a game (19th fastest), DAL 102.8 (18th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: PHI 100%, DAL 100%. Transfers in: PHI 0, DAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDAL -2.7
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model224.8
Model edge—
Projected score
PHI 111 · DAL 113.8
Win probability
DAL 58%
1st half
Spread
DAL -1.4
Total
112.7
Projected score
PHI 55.7 · DAL 57.1
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: 76ers 3, Mavericks 1, even 1
76ersBetterMavericks
G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67
PHIBig
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast Score 9
G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35
DALBig
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78
G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96
PHIBig
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast Score 49
F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54
Even
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 65
F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90
PHIBig
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 46
76ersBetterMavericks
PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7
DALSmall
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0
PHISmall
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players
PHIBig
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players
DALSmall
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
Bench-19.8 · 5 players
DALBig
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPHI betterDAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
76ers
Guards
T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min
Forwards
L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min
Centers
A. Bona14 minT. FallNew
Out
J. EmbiidDay-To-Day
Mavericks
Guards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PHIDAL
Scoring
108.7 #23Points per game114.3 #14
1.06 #22Points per possession1.12 #11
102.4 #19Pace (possessions)102.8 #18
Shooting
50.8 #25Effective FG%56.9 #2
34.0 #203-point %35.1 #14
39.5 #233-point attempt rate42.1 #18
28.7 #16Free throw rate21.4 #29
Possessions
12.3 #1Turnover rate16.8 #23
19.9 #30Offensive rebound rate27.8 #13
25.1 #22Assists per game27.0 #12
Defense
104.9 #2Points allowed111.8 #14
1.03 #3Points allowed per possession1.08 #13
49.8 #4Opponent effective FG%51.3 #9
32.1 #9Opponent 3-point %29.7 #2
17.0 #9Turnovers forced14.5 #24
70.8 #21Defensive rebound rate69.4 #25
9.6 #7Steals per game8.8 #16
5.0 #14Blocks per game6.8 #2
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Hornets109–104
  • Wvs Knicks98–93
  • W@ Pacers114–109
  • Lvs Pistons93–106
  • Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Mavericks

4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Rockets116–111
  • Wvs Thunder120–96
  • W@ Heat113–109
  • Lvs Spurs106–122
  • W@ Pacers121–105

A week or more of rest.