Minnesota Timberwolves at Charlotte Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Feb 15, 12:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · at Hornets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Timberwolves and Hornets
MIN	This season	CHA
4-3	Record	3-4
6-1	ATS	3-4
4-3	O/U	1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 114–105 · win probability MIN 73%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

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model 218.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

MIN 5, CHA 1 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

CHA offense vs MIN defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

MINBig

Three-pointers

MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%; CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 42.8% and 50.8% of their shots

MINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5; CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1

Context

Schedule so far

MIN has played the 7th-hardest schedule, CHA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

MINBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIN 15.1%, CHA 18.8%. Forced: MIN 15.6%, CHA 14.5%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: MIN plays 105.4 a game (9th fastest), CHA 98.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points

MINSmall

Recent form

Last 5: MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4; CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4

CHASmall

Home court

CHA at home. This season: CHA 2-2 at home, MIN 2-2 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIN 26.1, CHA 18.9. Allowed: MIN 28.9, CHA 28.4

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIN 30.0%, CHA 31.6%. Defensive: MIN 75.4%, CHA 76.6%

Even

MIN offense vs CHA defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIN 100%, CHA 100%. Transfers in: MIN 0, CHA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	4-0	—
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: MIN away; CHA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 18	vs SA	L111–121WO
Feb 26	vs IND	W124–104WU
Feb 28	vs BOS	W102–92WU

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 17	vs TOR	L96–97WU
Feb 25	@ ORL	L90–121LU
Feb 26	@ HOU	L101–105WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MIN 5–5 CHASeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIN 4-5-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 5, 2025-26	CHA 122 @ MIN 108	MIN +4.5	CHA W
Nov 1, 2025-26	MIN 122 @ CHA 105	CHA +4.5	MIN W
Mar 5, 2024-25	MIN 125 @ CHA 110	CHA +9.5	MIN W
Nov 4, 2024-25	CHA 93 @ MIN 114	MIN -11.5	MIN W
Jan 22, 2023-24	CHA 128 @ MIN 125	MIN -13.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Timberwolves 5, Hornets 0, even 0

TimberwolvesBetterHornets

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

MINSmall

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

MINSmall

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

MINSmall

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

MINSmall

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

MINBig

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

TimberwolvesBetterHornets

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

Even

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

MINBig

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

MINBig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

MINBig

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIN betterCHA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIN120.0 #6

CHA98.3 #30

Points per possession

MIN1.13 #8

CHA0.99 #30

Pace (possessions)

MIN105.4 #9

CHA98.3 #30

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIN55.8 #6

CHA48.4 #29

3-point %

MIN37.6 #6

CHA29.6 #28

3-point attempt rate

MIN42.8 #16

CHA50.8 #2

Free throw rate

MIN26.1 #21

CHA18.9 #30

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIN15.1 #12

CHA18.8 #29

Offensive rebound rate

MIN30.0 #7

CHA31.6 #4

Assists per game

MIN27.3 #11

CHA21.6 #30

Defense

Points allowed

MIN108.7 #8

CHA106.4 #4

Points allowed per possession

MIN1.04 #4

CHA1.09 #15

Opponent effective FG%

MIN50.5 #5

CHA53.1 #15

Opponent 3-point %

MIN31.2 #6

CHA37.5 #24

Turnovers forced

MIN15.6 #17

CHA14.5 #23

Defensive rebound rate

MIN75.4 #8

CHA76.6 #5

Steals per game

MIN9.0 #13

CHA7.1 #25

Blocks per game

MIN4.3 #20

CHA5.0 #15

MIN		CHA
Scoring
120.0 #6	Points per game	98.3 #30
1.13 #8	Points per possession	0.99 #30
105.4 #9	Pace (possessions)	98.3 #30
Shooting
55.8 #6	Effective FG%	48.4 #29
37.6 #6	3-point %	29.6 #28
42.8 #16	3-point attempt rate	50.8 #2
26.1 #21	Free throw rate	18.9 #30
Possessions
15.1 #12	Turnover rate	18.8 #29
30.0 #7	Offensive rebound rate	31.6 #4
27.3 #11	Assists per game	21.6 #30
Defense
108.7 #8	Points allowed	106.4 #4
1.04 #4	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #15
50.5 #5	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #15
31.2 #6	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #24
15.6 #17	Turnovers forced	14.5 #23
75.4 #8	Defensive rebound rate	76.6 #5
9.0 #13	Steals per game	7.1 #25
4.3 #20	Blocks per game	5.0 #15

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves @ Hornets

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Timberwolves

Hornets

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Timberwolves

Hornets