Washington Wizards at Milwaukee Bucks: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Feb 25, 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · at Bucks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wizards and Bucks
WSH	This season	MIL
3-3	Record	1-5
3-3	ATS	2-4
1-5	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WSH 117–116 · win probability WSH 53%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

WSH 3, MIL 2 · 2026-27 so far

MILBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WSH 20.9%, MIL 29.7%. Defensive: WSH 68.0%, MIL 74.2%

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: WSH 34.2, MIL 23.9. Allowed: WSH 21.8, MIL 29.7

WSHBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1; MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: WSH plays 102.3 a game (20th fastest), MIL 106.2 (4th). Faster games mean more points

WSHSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WSH 14.6%, MIL 15.8%. Forced: WSH 13.3%, MIL 12.2%

MILSmall

Home court

MIL at home. This season: MIL 1-3 at home, WSH 1-2 away

Even

MIL offense vs WSH defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

WSH has played the 26th-hardest schedule, MIL the 23rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

WSH offense vs MIL defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%; MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 37.6% and 45.9% of their shots

Even

Recent form

Last 5: WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4; MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WSH 100%, MIL 100%. Transfers in: WSH 0, MIL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	—
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: WSH away; MIL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 27	@ UTAH	W133–110WO
Mar 1	@ PHX	L93–112LU
Mar 2	@ SAC	W116–112WO

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 28	@ NY	L98–127LO
Mar 2	vs DET	L111–137LO
Mar 3	vs UTAH	L96–128LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

WSH 7–11 MILMIL leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · WSH has won the last 4 meetings · WSH 11-6-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 21, 2026-27	MIL 116 @ WSH 128	WSH -4.5	WSH W
Jan 29, 2025-26	MIL 99 @ WSH 109	WSH +1.5	WSH W
Dec 31, 2025-26	WSH 114 @ MIL 113	MIL -10.5	WSH W
Dec 1, 2025-26	MIL 126 @ WSH 129	WSH +10.5	WSH W
Oct 22, 2025-26	WSH 120 @ MIL 133	MIL -8.5	MIL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Wizards has the better starters

Position by position: Wizards 2, Bucks 0, even 3

WizardsBetterBucks

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

WSHSmall

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

Even

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

WSHBig

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

Even

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

No call

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

WizardsBetterBucks

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Even

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

Even

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

WSHBig

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

WSHBig

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

MILBig

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWSH betterMIL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WSH110.5 #20

MIL113.0 #17

Points per possession

WSH1.08 #19

MIL1.07 #20

Pace (possessions)

WSH102.3 #20

MIL106.2 #4

Shooting

Effective FG%

WSH52.1 #20

MIL52.0 #21

3-point %

WSH29.3 #29

MIL33.9 #21

3-point attempt rate

WSH37.6 #28

MIL45.9 #8

Free throw rate

WSH34.2 #5

MIL23.9 #25

Possessions

Turnover rate

WSH14.6 #8

MIL15.8 #18

Offensive rebound rate

WSH20.9 #29

MIL29.7 #8

Assists per game

WSH24.5 #24

MIL26.0 #20

Defense

Points allowed

WSH109.7 #11

MIL126.2 #28

Points allowed per possession

WSH1.07 #11

MIL1.18 #28

Opponent effective FG%

WSH48.1 #1

MIL55.4 #24

Opponent 3-point %

WSH28.7 #1

MIL34.9 #14

Turnovers forced

WSH13.3 #27

MIL12.2 #30

Defensive rebound rate

WSH68.0 #28

MIL74.2 #10

Steals per game

WSH7.2 #24

MIL5.7 #30

Blocks per game

WSH5.3 #9

MIL4.0 #27

WSH		MIL
Scoring
110.5 #20	Points per game	113.0 #17
1.08 #19	Points per possession	1.07 #20
102.3 #20	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #4
Shooting
52.1 #20	Effective FG%	52.0 #21
29.3 #29	3-point %	33.9 #21
37.6 #28	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #8
34.2 #5	Free throw rate	23.9 #25
Possessions
14.6 #8	Turnover rate	15.8 #18
20.9 #29	Offensive rebound rate	29.7 #8
24.5 #24	Assists per game	26.0 #20
Defense
109.7 #11	Points allowed	126.2 #28
1.07 #11	Points allowed per possession	1.18 #28
48.1 #1	Opponent effective FG%	55.4 #24
28.7 #1	Opponent 3-point %	34.9 #14
13.3 #27	Turnovers forced	12.2 #30
68.0 #28	Defensive rebound rate	74.2 #10
7.2 #24	Steals per game	5.7 #30
5.3 #9	Blocks per game	4.0 #27

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Wizards @ Bucks

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Wizards

Bucks

Wizards has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wizards

Bucks