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NBA · Wed, Feb 10

Pelicans @ Hawks

State Farm Arena · at Hawks
#22NOPelicans
@
#14ATLHawks
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NOThis seasonATL
2-4Record3-4
4-2ATS3-4
4-2O/U4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ATL 121–115 · win probability ATL 66%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 236.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 224-242 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

NO 4, ATL 3 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
NO has played the 28th-hardest schedule, ATL the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less
ATLBig
ATL offense vs NO defense
Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings
ATLBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NO 17.4%, ATL 13.8%. Forced: NO 16.3%, ATL 18.3%
NOBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: NO 35.3, ATL 23.4. Allowed: NO 30.6, ATL 32.1
NOBig
Recent form
Last 5: NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8; ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6
NOSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: NO 55.1 and allows 54.2; ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5
NOSmall
NO offense vs ATL defense
Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings
ATLSmall
Home court
ATL at home. This season: ATL 1-2 at home, NO 0-2 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NO 24.3%, ATL 27.1%. Defensive: NO 76.4%, ATL 70.9%
Context
Tempo
About 107 possessions: NO plays 108.0 a game (2nd fastest), ATL 105.6 (7th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%; ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 32.8% and 44.7% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NO 100%, ATL 100%. Transfers in: NO 0, ATL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelATL -5.6
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model236.3
Model edge—
Projected score
NO 115.3 · ATL 120.9
Win probability
ATL 66%
1st half
Spread
ATL -3.0
Total
118.0
Projected score
NO 57.5 · ATL 60.5
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Pelicans 1, Hawks 1, even 3
PelicansBetterHawks
G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19
ATLBig
G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67
F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81
Even
G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87
F T. Murphy14.3 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 60
Even
G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59
F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75
Even
G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78
C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52
NOSmall
F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30
PelicansBetterHawks
NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1
NOSmall
ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6
NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7
ATLBig
ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5
Backcourt-3.3 · 1 player
ATLBig
Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt+19.9 · 4 players
NOBig
Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player
Bench-16.0 · 5 players
ATLBig
Bench-4.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNO betterATL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Pelicans
Guards
J. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min
Forwards
Z. Williamson32 minT. Murphy32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min
Centers
D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min
Out
D. MurrayDay-To-DayJ. PooleOutY. MissiOut
Hawks
Guards
N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min
Forwards
O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min
Out
J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
NOATL
Scoring
119.7Points per game116.3
1.10Points per possession1.10
108.0Pace (possessions)105.6
Shooting
55.1Effective FG%52.6
31.23-point %32.8
32.83-point attempt rate44.7
35.3Free throw rate23.4
Possessions
17.4Turnover rate13.8
24.3Offensive rebound rate27.1
25.5Assists per game30.7
Defense
117.8Points allowed115.4
1.09Points allowed per possession1.10
54.2Opponent effective FG%54.5
30.5Opponent 3-point %31.9
16.3Turnovers forced18.3
76.4Defensive rebound rate70.9
13.7Steals per game9.4
4.8Blocks per game3.7
NOATL
Scoring
119.7 #7Points per game116.3 #13
1.10 #15Points per possession1.10 #16
108.0 #2Pace (possessions)105.6 #7
Shooting
55.1 #9Effective FG%52.6 #19
31.2 #253-point %32.8 #22
32.8 #303-point attempt rate44.7 #11
35.3 #4Free throw rate23.4 #26
Possessions
17.4 #26Turnover rate13.8 #4
24.3 #25Offensive rebound rate27.1 #18
25.5 #21Assists per game30.7 #1
Defense
117.8 #24Points allowed115.4 #19
1.09 #16Points allowed per possession1.10 #17
54.2 #21Opponent effective FG%54.5 #22
30.5 #5Opponent 3-point %31.9 #7
16.3 #10Turnovers forced18.3 #2
76.4 #6Defensive rebound rate70.9 #19
13.7 #1Steals per game9.4 #8
4.8 #16Blocks per game3.7 #29
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Hawks121–99
  • Wvs Kings132–120
  • Lvs Nuggets91–104
  • L@ Nuggets135–141
  • L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ Pelicans99–121
  • Wvs Cavaliers114–111
  • Lvs Heat117–129
  • L@ Rockets110–120
  • Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.