Chicago Bulls at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Feb 11, 9:00 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bulls and Nuggets
CHI	This season	DEN
1-5	Record	3-2
3-3	ATS	2-3
2-4	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 127–114 · win probability DEN 83%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 241.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

CHI 1, DEN 6 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

DEN offense vs CHI defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

Three-pointers

CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 47.9% and 40.9% of their shots

DENBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: CHI plays 109.8 a game (1st fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

DENSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHI 38.3, DEN 31.3. Allowed: CHI 33.5, DEN 21.5

CHISmall

CHI offense vs DEN defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

DENSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHI 16.2%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: CHI 14.7%, DEN 15.9%

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, CHI 1-3 away

Context

Schedule so far

CHI has played the 14th-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHI 29.2%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: CHI 69.8%, DEN 70.5%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHI 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: CHI 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-2	—
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	—

Venue/role: CHI away; DEN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 14	@ POR	L112–121LU
Feb 16	@ LAL	L130–142LO
Feb 17	@ LAC	L108–119WU

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 12	@ LAL	L125–127LO
Feb 14	@ HOU	W129–93WU
Feb 17	vs UTAH	W130–117LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CHI 6–4 DENCHI leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CHI 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 7, 2025-26	DEN 136 @ CHI 120	CHI +9.5	DEN W
Nov 17, 2025-26	CHI 130 @ DEN 127	DEN -12.5	CHI W
Mar 24, 2024-25	CHI 129 @ DEN 119	DEN -2.5	CHI W
Jan 27, 2024-25	DEN 121 @ CHI 129	CHI +9.5	CHI W
Dec 12, 2023-24	DEN 114 @ CHI 106	CHI +6.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Bulls 1, Nuggets 4, even 0

BullsBetterNuggets

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

CHISmall

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

DENBig

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

DENBig

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

DENBig

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

DENBig

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

BullsBetterNuggets

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

CHISmall

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

DENBig

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

DENSmall

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

DENSmall

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHI betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHI113.5 #16

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

CHI1.04 #26

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

CHI109.8 #1

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHI48.2 #30

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

CHI28.1 #30

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

CHI47.9 #4

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

CHI38.3 #1

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHI16.2 #20

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

CHI29.2 #9

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

CHI24.3 #25

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

CHI129.3 #30

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

CHI1.17 #27

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

CHI56.0 #26

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

CHI39.3 #28

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

CHI14.7 #21

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

CHI69.8 #24

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

CHI8.7 #17

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

CHI5.0 #12

DEN4.4 #18

CHI		DEN
Scoring
113.5 #16	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.04 #26	Points per possession	1.13 #9
109.8 #1	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
48.2 #30	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
28.1 #30	3-point %	37.4 #7
47.9 #4	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
38.3 #1	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
16.2 #20	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
29.2 #9	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
24.3 #25	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
129.3 #30	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.17 #27	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
56.0 #26	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
39.3 #28	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
14.7 #21	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
69.8 #24	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
8.7 #17	Steals per game	10.2 #5
5.0 #12	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Bulls @ Nuggets

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bulls

Nuggets

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bulls

Nuggets