Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Feb 17, 9:00 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets · Conference game

#26UTAHJazz

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Jazz and Nuggets
UTAH	This season	DEN
1-5	Record	3-2
1-5	ATS	2-3
2-4	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 124–113 · win probability DEN 78%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 235.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

UTAH 1, DEN 6 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

DEN offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

UTAH has played the 4th-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: UTAH 31.6, DEN 31.3. Allowed: UTAH 33.8, DEN 21.5

DENBig

Three-pointers

UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 41.7% and 40.9% of their shots

DENBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UTAH 17.0%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: UTAH 13.3%, DEN 15.9%

DENSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

UTAHSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UTAH 25.7%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: UTAH 77.1%, DEN 70.5%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: UTAH plays 104.0 a game (12th fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, UTAH 0-1 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

Even

UTAH offense vs DEN defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UTAH 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: UTAH 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	0-1	—
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	—

Venue/role: UTAH away; DEN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 25	@ LAC	L103–115LU
Feb 27	vs WSH	L110–133LO
Mar 1	@ NO	W120–119LO

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 26	vs LAL	L125–127LO
Feb 28	@ SA	W128–118WO
Mar 1	vs BKN	W107–103LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

UTAH 7–13 DENDEN leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 10 meetings · UTAH 11-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 1, 2025-26	DEN 130 @ UTAH 117	UTAH +17.5	UTAH W
Mar 27, 2025-26	UTAH 129 @ DEN 135	DEN -19.5	UTAH W
Mar 2, 2025-26	DEN 128 @ UTAH 125	UTAH +11.5	UTAH W
Dec 22, 2025-26	UTAH 112 @ DEN 135	DEN -12.5	DEN W
Mar 28, 2024-25	UTAH 93 @ DEN 129	DEN -19.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Jazz 0, Nuggets 4, even 1

JazzBetterNuggets

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

DENSmall

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

DENBig

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

DENBig

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

Even

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

DENBig

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

JazzBetterNuggets

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

Even

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

DENBig

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

DENBig

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

UTAHBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUTAH betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UTAH108.7 #24

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

UTAH1.05 #25

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

UTAH104.0 #12

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

UTAH51.0 #24

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

UTAH32.6 #23

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

UTAH41.7 #21

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

UTAH31.6 #10

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

UTAH17.0 #25

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

UTAH25.7 #22

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

UTAH26.2 #19

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

UTAH118.8 #25

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

UTAH1.14 #25

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

UTAH53.9 #18

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

UTAH37.6 #25

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

UTAH13.3 #28

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

UTAH77.1 #4

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

UTAH6.2 #29

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

UTAH6.5 #5

DEN4.4 #18

UTAH		DEN
Scoring
108.7 #24	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.05 #25	Points per possession	1.13 #9
104.0 #12	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
51.0 #24	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
32.6 #23	3-point %	37.4 #7
41.7 #21	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
31.6 #10	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
17.0 #25	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
25.7 #22	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
26.2 #19	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
118.8 #25	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.14 #25	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
53.9 #18	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
37.6 #25	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
13.3 #28	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
77.1 #4	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
6.2 #29	Steals per game	10.2 #5
6.5 #5	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Jazz @ Nuggets

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Jazz

Nuggets

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Jazz

Nuggets