Boston Celtics at Oklahoma City Thunder: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Feb 17, 9:30 PM ETPaycom Center · at Thunder

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Celtics and Thunder
BOS	This season	OKC
5-1	Record	4-2
3-3	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 110–108 · win probability BOS 54%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 217.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

BOS 3, OKC 3 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

BOS has played the 25th-hardest schedule, OKC the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less

OKCBig

BOS offense vs OKC defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

BOSBig

OKC offense vs BOS defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

BOSBig

Three-pointers

BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%; OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 45.9% and 35.8% of their shots

BOSSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3; OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0

OKCSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BOS 28.3%, OKC 28.5%. Defensive: BOS 68.4%, OKC 71.4%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: BOS plays 103.0 a game (16th fastest), OKC 101.1 (27th). Faster games mean more points

OKCSmall

Home court

OKC at home. This season: OKC 3-0 at home, BOS 1-1 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BOS 14.9%, OKC 14.5%. Forced: BOS 17.8%, OKC 15.8%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0; OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: BOS 32.3, OKC 21.8. Allowed: BOS 31.7, OKC 23.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BOS 100%, OKC 100%. Transfers in: BOS 0, OKC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	—
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: BOS away; OKC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 18	@ MEM	W117–112LU
Feb 26	vs CLE	W109–98WU
Feb 28	@ MIN	L92–102LU

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 25	@ NY	W111–100WU
Feb 27	@ DET	W114–110LO
Mar 2	vs MIN	W116–103WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

BOS 5–5 OKCSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · BOS 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 25, 2025-26	OKC 109 @ BOS 119	BOS +2.5	BOS W
Mar 12, 2025-26	BOS 102 @ OKC 104	OKC -8.5	BOS W
Mar 12, 2024-25	OKC 118 @ BOS 112	BOS -2.5	OKC W
Jan 5, 2024-25	BOS 92 @ OKC 105	OKC -0.5	OKC W
Apr 3, 2023-24	OKC 100 @ BOS 135	BOS -12.5	BOS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Celtics 2, Thunder 2, even 1

CelticsBetterThunder

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

Even

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

OKCSmall

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

BOSBig

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

BOSSmall

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

OKCSmall

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

CelticsBetterThunder

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

OKCBig

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

BOSBig

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBOS betterOKC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BOS118.7 #8

OKC106.5 #29

Points per possession

BOS1.15 #6

OKC1.05 #23

Pace (possessions)

BOS103.0 #16

OKC101.1 #27

Shooting

Effective FG%

BOS55.0 #10

OKC49.5 #28

3-point %

BOS35.5 #10

OKC30.9 #26

3-point attempt rate

BOS45.9 #7

OKC35.8 #29

Free throw rate

BOS32.3 #7

OKC21.8 #28

Possessions

Turnover rate

BOS14.9 #11

OKC14.5 #7

Offensive rebound rate

BOS28.3 #12

OKC28.5 #10

Assists per game

BOS28.0 #6

OKC21.7 #29

Defense

Points allowed

BOS109.2 #9

OKC107.0 #5

Points allowed per possession

BOS1.06 #9

OKC1.06 #7

Opponent effective FG%

BOS51.3 #7

OKC51.0 #6

Opponent 3-point %

BOS33.8 #12

OKC35.3 #17

Turnovers forced

BOS17.8 #3

OKC15.8 #13

Defensive rebound rate

BOS68.4 #27

OKC71.4 #18

Steals per game

BOS9.2 #9

OKC8.3 #20

Blocks per game

BOS4.0 #25

OKC6.3 #7

BOS		OKC
Scoring
118.7 #8	Points per game	106.5 #29
1.15 #6	Points per possession	1.05 #23
103.0 #16	Pace (possessions)	101.1 #27
Shooting
55.0 #10	Effective FG%	49.5 #28
35.5 #10	3-point %	30.9 #26
45.9 #7	3-point attempt rate	35.8 #29
32.3 #7	Free throw rate	21.8 #28
Possessions
14.9 #11	Turnover rate	14.5 #7
28.3 #12	Offensive rebound rate	28.5 #10
28.0 #6	Assists per game	21.7 #29
Defense
109.2 #9	Points allowed	107.0 #5
1.06 #9	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #7
51.3 #7	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #6
33.8 #12	Opponent 3-point %	35.3 #17
17.8 #3	Turnovers forced	15.8 #13
68.4 #27	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #18
9.2 #9	Steals per game	8.3 #20
4.0 #25	Blocks per game	6.3 #7

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Celtics @ Thunder

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Celtics

Thunder

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Celtics

Thunder