Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Feb 14, 2:00 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nuggets and Rockets
DEN	This season	HOU
3-2	Record	6-1
2-3	ATS	6-1
3-2	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 119–111 · win probability HOU 72%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 229.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

DEN 0, HOU 7 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

HOU offense vs DEN defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 27.5%, HOU 32.4%. Defensive: DEN 70.5%, HOU 73.2%

HOUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2; HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1

HOUSmall

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%; HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%. Threes are 40.9% and 38.1% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 18th-hardest schedule, HOU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less

HOUSmall

Recent form

Last 5: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2; HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0

HOUSmall

Home court

HOU at home. This season: HOU 3-0 at home, DEN 2-1 away

HOUSmall

DEN offense vs HOU defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 31.3, HOU 31.9. Allowed: DEN 21.5, HOU 24.7

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: DEN plays 102.1 a game (21st fastest), HOU 101.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 16.4%, HOU 15.1%. Forced: DEN 15.9%, HOU 15.7%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, HOU 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, HOU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	2-1	—
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-0	—

Venue/role: DEN away; HOU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 17	vs UTAH	W130–117LU
Feb 26	vs LAL	L125–127LO
Feb 28	@ SA	W128–118WO

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 16	@ LAC	L102–105LU
Feb 18	@ LAL	L78–98LU
Feb 26	vs CHA	W105–101LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

DEN 12–6 HOUDEN leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · DEN 10-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 11, 2025-26	HOU 93 @ DEN 129	DEN -6.5	DEN W
Dec 20, 2025-26	HOU 115 @ DEN 101	DEN +1.5	HOU W
Dec 15, 2025-26	HOU 125 @ DEN 128	DEN +1.5	DEN W
Nov 21, 2025-26	DEN 112 @ HOU 109	HOU -3.5	DEN W
Apr 13, 2024-25	DEN 126 @ HOU 111	HOU +5.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Nuggets 1, Rockets 2, even 2

NuggetsBetterRockets

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

HOUSmall

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

HOUSmall

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

Even

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

DENSmall

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

Even

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

NuggetsBetterRockets

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Even

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

HOUBig

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

HOUBig

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterHOU betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN114.0 #15

HOU120.7 #3

Points per possession

DEN1.13 #9

HOU1.20 #1

Pace (possessions)

DEN102.1 #21

HOU101.6 #24

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN54.7 #11

HOU56.6 #3

3-point %

DEN37.4 #7

HOU39.0 #3

3-point attempt rate

DEN40.9 #22

HOU38.1 #26

Free throw rate

DEN31.3 #11

HOU31.9 #8

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN16.4 #21

HOU15.1 #13

Offensive rebound rate

DEN27.5 #15

HOU32.4 #3

Assists per game

DEN26.8 #14

HOU28.1 #5

Defense

Points allowed

DEN115.2 #18

HOU108.3 #7

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.12 #20

HOU1.06 #8

Opponent effective FG%

DEN54.2 #20

HOU52.1 #10

Opponent 3-point %

DEN35.0 #15

HOU30.2 #4

Turnovers forced

DEN15.9 #11

HOU15.7 #16

Defensive rebound rate

DEN70.5 #22

HOU73.2 #14

Steals per game

DEN10.2 #5

HOU9.7 #6

Blocks per game

DEN4.4 #18

HOU5.9 #8

DEN		HOU
Scoring
114.0 #15	Points per game	120.7 #3
1.13 #9	Points per possession	1.20 #1
102.1 #21	Pace (possessions)	101.6 #24
Shooting
54.7 #11	Effective FG%	56.6 #3
37.4 #7	3-point %	39.0 #3
40.9 #22	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #26
31.3 #11	Free throw rate	31.9 #8
Possessions
16.4 #21	Turnover rate	15.1 #13
27.5 #15	Offensive rebound rate	32.4 #3
26.8 #14	Assists per game	28.1 #5
Defense
115.2 #18	Points allowed	108.3 #7
1.12 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #8
54.2 #20	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #10
35.0 #15	Opponent 3-point %	30.2 #4
15.9 #11	Turnovers forced	15.7 #16
70.5 #22	Defensive rebound rate	73.2 #14
10.2 #5	Steals per game	9.7 #6
4.4 #18	Blocks per game	5.9 #8

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets @ Rockets

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Rockets

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

Rockets