Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Feb 8, 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · at Hawks · Conference game

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Heat and Hawks
MIA	This season	ATL
2-4	Record	3-4
2-4	ATS	3-4
3-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ATL 121–117 · win probability ATL 60%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 237.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

MIA 2, ATL 4 · 2026-27 so far

ATLBig

ATL offense vs MIA defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

MIABig

MIA offense vs ATL defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

MIABig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIA 27.3, ATL 23.4. Allowed: MIA 23.2, ATL 32.1

ATLBig

Three-pointers

MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%; ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 41.7% and 44.7% of their shots

ATLSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIA 14.1%, ATL 13.8%. Forced: MIA 15.4%, ATL 18.3%

ATLSmall

Home court

ATL at home. This season: ATL 1-2 at home, MIA 1-1 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2; ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIA 24.5%, ATL 27.1%. Defensive: MIA 72.3%, ATL 70.9%

Context

Schedule so far

MIA has played the 11th-hardest schedule, ATL the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: MIA plays 106.2 a game (5th fastest), ATL 105.6 (7th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8; ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIA 100%, ATL 100%. Transfers in: MIA 0, ATL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	—
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: MIA away; ATL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 10	@ WSH	W140–117WO
Feb 12	@ ORL	L117–121LO
Feb 14	vs BKN	W126–110WO

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 10	vs NO	L99–121LU
Feb 12	vs PHX	W110–103WU
Feb 14	vs SAC	W123–113LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 28 since 2021-22

MIA 20–8 ATLMIA leads · 28 games since 2021-22 · MIA has won the last 3 meetings · MIA 18-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 28, 2026-27	MIA 129 @ ATL 117	ATL -2.5	MIA W
Apr 12, 2025-26	ATL 117 @ MIA 143	MIA -10.5	MIA W
Feb 20, 2025-26	MIA 128 @ ATL 97	ATL +3.5	MIA W
Feb 3, 2025-26	ATL 127 @ MIA 115	MIA -1.5	ATL W
Dec 26, 2025-26	MIA 126 @ ATL 111	ATL -2.5	MIA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hawks has the better starters

Position by position: Heat 2, Hawks 3, even 0

HeatBetterHawks

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

ATLSmall

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

ATLBig

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

MIASmall

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

ATLSmall

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

MIABig

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

HeatBetterHawks

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

MIABig

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

ATLBig

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

ATLBig

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

MIABig

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

MIASmall

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIA betterATL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIA118.3 #9

ATL116.3 #13

Points per possession

MIA1.11 #14

ATL1.10 #16

Pace (possessions)

MIA106.2 #5

ATL105.6 #7

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIA54.6 #12

ATL52.6 #19

3-point %

MIA34.1 #19

ATL32.8 #22

3-point attempt rate

MIA41.7 #20

ATL44.7 #11

Free throw rate

MIA27.3 #19

ATL23.4 #26

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIA14.1 #5

ATL13.8 #4

Offensive rebound rate

MIA24.5 #24

ATL27.1 #18

Assists per game

MIA28.8 #3

ATL30.7 #1

Defense

Points allowed

MIA121.5 #26

ATL115.4 #19

Points allowed per possession

MIA1.15 #26

ATL1.10 #17

Opponent effective FG%

MIA56.8 #27

ATL54.5 #22

Opponent 3-point %

MIA40.6 #29

ATL31.9 #7

Turnovers forced

MIA15.4 #18

ATL18.3 #2

Defensive rebound rate

MIA72.3 #17

ATL70.9 #19

Steals per game

MIA8.3 #19

ATL9.4 #8

Blocks per game

MIA5.0 #13

ATL3.7 #29

MIA		ATL
Scoring
118.3 #9	Points per game	116.3 #13
1.11 #14	Points per possession	1.10 #16
106.2 #5	Pace (possessions)	105.6 #7
Shooting
54.6 #12	Effective FG%	52.6 #19
34.1 #19	3-point %	32.8 #22
41.7 #20	3-point attempt rate	44.7 #11
27.3 #19	Free throw rate	23.4 #26
Possessions
14.1 #5	Turnover rate	13.8 #4
24.5 #24	Offensive rebound rate	27.1 #18
28.8 #3	Assists per game	30.7 #1
Defense
121.5 #26	Points allowed	115.4 #19
1.15 #26	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #17
56.8 #27	Opponent effective FG%	54.5 #22
40.6 #29	Opponent 3-point %	31.9 #7
15.4 #18	Turnovers forced	18.3 #2
72.3 #17	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #19
8.3 #19	Steals per game	9.4 #8
5.0 #13	Blocks per game	3.7 #29

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Heat @ Hawks

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Heat

Hawks

Hawks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Heat

Hawks