New Orleans Pelicans at Indiana Pacers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Feb 8, 7:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · at Pacers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pelicans and Pacers
NO	This season	IND
2-4	Record	2-5
4-2	ATS	3-4
4-2	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NO 119–117 · win probability NO 54%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 235.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

NO 5, IND 1 · 2026-27 so far

NOBig

NO offense vs IND defense

Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

NOSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: NO 35.3, IND 31.2. Allowed: NO 30.6, IND 32.1

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: NO plays 108.0 a game (2nd fastest), IND 103.1 (15th). Faster games mean more points

NOSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NO 24.3%, IND 23.1%. Defensive: NO 76.4%, IND 72.7%

NOSmall

Recent form

Last 5: NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8; IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8

INDSmall

Home court

IND at home. This season: IND 0-3 at home, NO 0-2 away

NOSmall

Three-pointers

NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%; IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%. Threes are 32.8% and 43.1% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NO 17.4%, IND 14.8%. Forced: NO 16.3%, IND 14.9%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: NO 55.1 and allows 54.2; IND 53.9 and allows 53.9

Context

Schedule so far

NO has played the 28th-hardest schedule, IND the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

IND offense vs NO defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NO 100%, IND 100%. Transfers in: NO 0, IND 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-0	—
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: NO away; IND home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO OOUOU	4-2	67%	2-4
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NOlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pelicans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 10	@ ATL	W121–99WU
Feb 12	vs HOU	L102–134LO
Feb 14	vs LAC	W105–99WU

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 10	vs CLE	L108–117WU
Feb 11	vs UTAH	L122–131LO
Feb 13	vs SAC	L109–114LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 12 since 2021-22

NO 5–7 INDIND leads · 12 games since 2021-22 · IND has won the last 2 meetings · NO 6-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 21, 2026-27	IND 123 @ NO 120	NO +2.5	IND W
Jan 16, 2025-26	NO 119 @ IND 127	IND -4.5	IND W
Dec 20, 2025-26	IND 109 @ NO 128	NO -2.5	NO W
Dec 15, 2024-25	NO 104 @ IND 119	IND -7.5	IND W
Nov 25, 2024-25	NO 110 @ IND 114	IND -7.5	NO W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pelicans

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsIND	L 120-123	+2.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	@UTAH	L 119-120	+1.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 24	@DEN	L 135-141	+11.5	W +5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 28	vsDEN	L 91-104	+4.5	L −8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 29	vsSAC	W 132-120	-6.5	W +5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	vsATL	W 121-99	+5.5	W +27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IND

L 120-123

−0.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+5.5

DEN

L 91-104

−8.5

SAC

W 132-120

+5.5

ATL

W 121-99

+27.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IND

L 120-123

+4.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+36.5

DEN

L 91-104

−46.5

SAC

W 132-120

+17.5

ATL

W 121-99

−19.5

over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pelicans has the better starters

Position by position: Pelicans 2, Pacers 1, even 2

PelicansBetterPacers

G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45

INDSmall

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19

Even

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81

NOSmall

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75

Even

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52

NOBig

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

PelicansBetterPacers

NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1

NOBig

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7

Even

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

INDBig

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players

NOBig

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

Bench-16.0 · 5 players

NOBig

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNO betterIND betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pelicans

Guards

D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min

Forwards

Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min

Centers

D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min

Out

J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NO119.7 #7

IND112.9 #18

Points per possession

NO1.10 #15

IND1.10 #17

Pace (possessions)

NO108.0 #2

IND103.1 #15

Shooting

Effective FG%

NO55.1 #9

IND53.9 #14

3-point %

NO31.2 #25

IND34.1 #18

3-point attempt rate

NO32.8 #30

IND43.1 #15

Free throw rate

NO35.3 #4

IND31.2 #12

Possessions

Turnover rate

NO17.4 #26

IND14.8 #10

Offensive rebound rate

NO24.3 #25

IND23.1 #27

Assists per game

NO25.5 #21

IND28.0 #7

Defense

Points allowed

NO117.8 #24

IND116.7 #23

Points allowed per possession

NO1.09 #16

IND1.13 #23

Opponent effective FG%

NO54.2 #21

IND53.9 #19

Opponent 3-point %

NO30.5 #5

IND35.9 #20

Turnovers forced

NO16.3 #10

IND14.9 #19

Defensive rebound rate

NO76.4 #6

IND72.7 #16

Steals per game

NO13.7 #1

IND6.9 #27

Blocks per game

NO4.8 #16

IND4.0 #26

NO		IND
Scoring
119.7 #7	Points per game	112.9 #18
1.10 #15	Points per possession	1.10 #17
108.0 #2	Pace (possessions)	103.1 #15
Shooting
55.1 #9	Effective FG%	53.9 #14
31.2 #25	3-point %	34.1 #18
32.8 #30	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #15
35.3 #4	Free throw rate	31.2 #12
Possessions
17.4 #26	Turnover rate	14.8 #10
24.3 #25	Offensive rebound rate	23.1 #27
25.5 #21	Assists per game	28.0 #7
Defense
117.8 #24	Points allowed	116.7 #23
1.09 #16	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #23
54.2 #21	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #19
30.5 #5	Opponent 3-point %	35.9 #20
16.3 #10	Turnovers forced	14.9 #19
76.4 #6	Defensive rebound rate	72.7 #16
13.7 #1	Steals per game	6.9 #27
4.8 #16	Blocks per game	4.0 #26

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hawks121–99
Wvs Kings132–120
Lvs Nuggets91–104
L@ Nuggets135–141
L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Pelicans @ Pacers

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pelicans

Pacers

Pelicans has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pelicans

Pacers