Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Feb 8, 7:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · at 76ers · Conference game

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nets and 76ers
BKN	This season	PHI
1-5	Record	6-1
3-3	ATS	4-3
3-3	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHI 116–104 · win probability PHI 80%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 219.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

BKN 1, PHI 4 · 2026-27 so far

PHIBig

BKN offense vs PHI defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BKN 18.2%, PHI 12.3%. Forced: BKN 15.9%, PHI 17.0%

BKNBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BKN 25.4%, PHI 19.9%. Defensive: BKN 77.8%, PHI 70.8%

PHIBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3; PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: BKN plays 105.1 a game (10th fastest), PHI 102.4 (19th). Faster games mean more points

PHISmall

Home court

PHI at home. This season: PHI 3-1 at home, BKN 1-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0; PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6

Even

Three-pointers

BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%; PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 48.0% and 39.5% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: BKN 32.9, PHI 28.7. Allowed: BKN 33.5, PHI 28.5

Context

Schedule so far

BKN has played the 19th-hardest schedule, PHI the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

PHI offense vs BKN defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BKN 100%, PHI 100%. Transfers in: BKN 0, PHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	3-0	—
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: BKN away; PHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 9	vs MIN	W123–107WO
Feb 12	@ WSH	W121–115WO
Feb 14	@ MIA	L110–126LO

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 11	vs NY	W98–93WU
Feb 13	@ OKC	L103–123LU
Feb 15	@ DAL	W123–108WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 24 since 2021-22

BKN 8–16 PHIPHI leads · 24 games since 2021-22 · BKN 10-14 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 14, 2025-26	BKN 97 @ PHI 104	PHI -8.5	BKN W
Dec 23, 2025-26	BKN 114 @ PHI 106	PHI -9.5	BKN W
Nov 28, 2025-26	PHI 115 @ BKN 103	BKN +7.5	PHI W
Nov 2, 2025-26	PHI 129 @ BKN 105	BKN +4.5	PHI W
Feb 22, 2024-25	BKN 105 @ PHI 103	PHI -11.5	BKN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: Nets 1, 76ers 4, even 0

NetsBetter76ers

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

PHIBig

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

PHISmall

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

PHIBig

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

BKNBig

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

PHIBig

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

NetsBetter76ers

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

PHIBig

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Even

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

PHIBig

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

PHIBig

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

BKNSmall

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBKN betterPHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BKN108.2 #25

PHI108.7 #23

Points per possession

BKN1.03 #29

PHI1.06 #22

Pace (possessions)

BKN105.1 #10

PHI102.4 #19

Shooting

Effective FG%

BKN50.7 #26

PHI50.8 #25

3-point %

BKN35.1 #15

PHI34.0 #20

3-point attempt rate

BKN48.0 #3

PHI39.5 #23

Free throw rate

BKN32.9 #6

PHI28.7 #16

Possessions

Turnover rate

BKN18.2 #27

PHI12.3 #1

Offensive rebound rate

BKN25.4 #23

PHI19.9 #30

Assists per game

BKN22.8 #28

PHI25.1 #22

Defense

Points allowed

BKN116.0 #21

PHI104.9 #2

Points allowed per possession

BKN1.11 #18

PHI1.03 #3

Opponent effective FG%

BKN55.3 #23

PHI49.8 #4

Opponent 3-point %

BKN35.8 #19

PHI32.1 #9

Turnovers forced

BKN15.9 #12

PHI17.0 #9

Defensive rebound rate

BKN77.8 #2

PHI70.8 #21

Steals per game

BKN9.0 #14

PHI9.6 #7

Blocks per game

BKN4.7 #17

PHI5.0 #14

BKN		PHI
Scoring
108.2 #25	Points per game	108.7 #23
1.03 #29	Points per possession	1.06 #22
105.1 #10	Pace (possessions)	102.4 #19
Shooting
50.7 #26	Effective FG%	50.8 #25
35.1 #15	3-point %	34.0 #20
48.0 #3	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #23
32.9 #6	Free throw rate	28.7 #16
Possessions
18.2 #27	Turnover rate	12.3 #1
25.4 #23	Offensive rebound rate	19.9 #30
22.8 #28	Assists per game	25.1 #22
Defense
116.0 #21	Points allowed	104.9 #2
1.11 #18	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #3
55.3 #23	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #4
35.8 #19	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #9
15.9 #12	Turnovers forced	17.0 #9
77.8 #2	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #21
9.0 #14	Steals per game	9.6 #7
4.7 #17	Blocks per game	5.0 #14

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Nets @ 76ers

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nets

76ers

76ers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nets

76ers