Minnesota Timberwolves at Brooklyn Nets: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Feb 9, 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · at Nets

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Timberwolves and Nets
MIN	This season	BKN
4-3	Record	1-5
6-1	ATS	3-3
4-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 120–105 · win probability MIN 86%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

MIN 6, BKN 1 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

BKN offense vs MIN defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

MINBig

MIN offense vs BKN defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

MINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5; BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3

Context

Schedule so far

MIN has played the 7th-hardest schedule, BKN the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MINBig

Three-pointers

MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%; BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 42.8% and 48.0% of their shots

MINSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIN 15.1%, BKN 18.2%. Forced: MIN 15.6%, BKN 15.9%

MINSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIN 30.0%, BKN 25.4%. Defensive: MIN 75.4%, BKN 77.8%

BKNSmall

Home court

BKN at home. This season: BKN 0-3 at home, MIN 2-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4; BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIN 26.1, BKN 32.9. Allowed: MIN 28.9, BKN 33.5

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: MIN plays 105.4 a game (9th fastest), BKN 105.1 (10th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIN 100%, BKN 100%. Transfers in: MIN 0, BKN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	4-0	—
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	0-3	—

Venue/role: MIN away; BKN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 12	@ BOS	W102–92WU
Feb 15	@ CHA	L108–122LO
Feb 18	vs SA	L111–121WO

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 12	@ WSH	W121–115WO
Feb 14	@ MIA	L110–126LO
Feb 17	vs ATL	L107–141LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MIN 7–3 BKNMIN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIN 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 27, 2025-26	BKN 123 @ MIN 107	MIN -12.5	BKN W
Nov 3, 2025-26	MIN 125 @ BKN 109	BKN +9.5	MIN W
Apr 11, 2024-25	BKN 91 @ MIN 117	MIN -21.5	MIN W
Apr 3, 2024-25	MIN 105 @ BKN 90	BKN +14.5	MIN W
Feb 24, 2023-24	BKN 86 @ MIN 101	MIN -8.5	MIN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Timberwolves 4, Nets 0, even 1

TimberwolvesBetterNets

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

MINSmall

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

MINBig

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

MINBig

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

Even

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

MINBig

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

TimberwolvesBetterNets

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

MINBig

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

MINBig

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

MINBig

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

MINBig

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIN betterBKN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIN120.0 #6

BKN108.2 #25

Points per possession

MIN1.13 #8

BKN1.03 #29

Pace (possessions)

MIN105.4 #9

BKN105.1 #10

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIN55.8 #6

BKN50.7 #26

3-point %

MIN37.6 #6

BKN35.1 #15

3-point attempt rate

MIN42.8 #16

BKN48.0 #3

Free throw rate

MIN26.1 #21

BKN32.9 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIN15.1 #12

BKN18.2 #27

Offensive rebound rate

MIN30.0 #7

BKN25.4 #23

Assists per game

MIN27.3 #11

BKN22.8 #28

Defense

Points allowed

MIN108.7 #8

BKN116.0 #21

Points allowed per possession

MIN1.04 #4

BKN1.11 #18

Opponent effective FG%

MIN50.5 #5

BKN55.3 #23

Opponent 3-point %

MIN31.2 #6

BKN35.8 #19

Turnovers forced

MIN15.6 #17

BKN15.9 #12

Defensive rebound rate

MIN75.4 #8

BKN77.8 #2

Steals per game

MIN9.0 #13

BKN9.0 #14

Blocks per game

MIN4.3 #20

BKN4.7 #17

MIN		BKN
Scoring
120.0 #6	Points per game	108.2 #25
1.13 #8	Points per possession	1.03 #29
105.4 #9	Pace (possessions)	105.1 #10
Shooting
55.8 #6	Effective FG%	50.7 #26
37.6 #6	3-point %	35.1 #15
42.8 #16	3-point attempt rate	48.0 #3
26.1 #21	Free throw rate	32.9 #6
Possessions
15.1 #12	Turnover rate	18.2 #27
30.0 #7	Offensive rebound rate	25.4 #23
27.3 #11	Assists per game	22.8 #28
Defense
108.7 #8	Points allowed	116.0 #21
1.04 #4	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #18
50.5 #5	Opponent effective FG%	55.3 #23
31.2 #6	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #19
15.6 #17	Turnovers forced	15.9 #12
75.4 #8	Defensive rebound rate	77.8 #2
9.0 #13	Steals per game	9.0 #14
4.3 #20	Blocks per game	4.7 #17

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves @ Nets

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Timberwolves

Nets

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Timberwolves

Nets