Minnesota Timberwolves at Boston Celtics: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Feb 12, 8:00 PM ETTD Garden · at Celtics

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Timberwolves and Celtics
MIN	This season	BOS
4-3	Record	5-1
6-1	ATS	3-3
4-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 112–112 · win probability BOS 52%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 224.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

MIN 3, BOS 2 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

MIN has played the 7th-hardest schedule, BOS the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MINBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIN 30.0%, BOS 28.3%. Defensive: MIN 75.4%, BOS 68.4%

BOSSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIN 15.1%, BOS 14.9%. Forced: MIN 15.6%, BOS 17.8%

MINSmall

BOS offense vs MIN defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

MINSmall

Three-pointers

MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%; BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 42.8% and 45.9% of their shots

BOSSmall

Home court

BOS at home. This season: BOS 4-0 at home, MIN 2-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: MIN plays 105.4 a game (9th fastest), BOS 103.0 (16th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5; BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4; BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIN 26.1, BOS 32.3. Allowed: MIN 28.9, BOS 31.7

Even

MIN offense vs BOS defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIN 100%, BOS 100%. Transfers in: MIN 0, BOS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	4-0	—
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: MIN away; BOS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 15	@ CHA	L108–122LO
Feb 18	vs SA	L111–121WO
Feb 26	vs IND	W124–104WU

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 14	vs TOR	W115–101WU
Feb 17	@ OKC	W119–109WO
Feb 18	@ MEM	W117–112LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MIN 4–6 BOSBOS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings · MIN 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 22, 2025-26	MIN 102 @ BOS 92	BOS -10.5	MIN W
Nov 29, 2025-26	BOS 115 @ MIN 119	MIN -5.5	BOS W
Jan 2, 2024-25	BOS 118 @ MIN 115	MIN +2.5	BOS W
Nov 24, 2024-25	MIN 105 @ BOS 107	BOS -8.5	MIN W
Jan 10, 2023-24	MIN 120 @ BOS 127	BOS -10.5	MIN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Timberwolves 3, Celtics 1, even 1

TimberwolvesBetterCeltics

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

BOSBig

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

MINSmall

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

Even

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

MINSmall

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

MINBig

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

TimberwolvesBetterCeltics

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

Even

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

MINSmall

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIN betterBOS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIN120.0 #6

BOS118.7 #8

Points per possession

MIN1.13 #8

BOS1.15 #6

Pace (possessions)

MIN105.4 #9

BOS103.0 #16

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIN55.8 #6

BOS55.0 #10

3-point %

MIN37.6 #6

BOS35.5 #10

3-point attempt rate

MIN42.8 #16

BOS45.9 #7

Free throw rate

MIN26.1 #21

BOS32.3 #7

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIN15.1 #12

BOS14.9 #11

Offensive rebound rate

MIN30.0 #7

BOS28.3 #12

Assists per game

MIN27.3 #11

BOS28.0 #6

Defense

Points allowed

MIN108.7 #8

BOS109.2 #9

Points allowed per possession

MIN1.04 #4

BOS1.06 #9

Opponent effective FG%

MIN50.5 #5

BOS51.3 #7

Opponent 3-point %

MIN31.2 #6

BOS33.8 #12

Turnovers forced

MIN15.6 #17

BOS17.8 #3

Defensive rebound rate

MIN75.4 #8

BOS68.4 #27

Steals per game

MIN9.0 #13

BOS9.2 #9

Blocks per game

MIN4.3 #20

BOS4.0 #25

MIN		BOS
Scoring
120.0 #6	Points per game	118.7 #8
1.13 #8	Points per possession	1.15 #6
105.4 #9	Pace (possessions)	103.0 #16
Shooting
55.8 #6	Effective FG%	55.0 #10
37.6 #6	3-point %	35.5 #10
42.8 #16	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #7
26.1 #21	Free throw rate	32.3 #7
Possessions
15.1 #12	Turnover rate	14.9 #11
30.0 #7	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #12
27.3 #11	Assists per game	28.0 #6
Defense
108.7 #8	Points allowed	109.2 #9
1.04 #4	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #9
50.5 #5	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #7
31.2 #6	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #12
15.6 #17	Turnovers forced	17.8 #3
75.4 #8	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #27
9.0 #13	Steals per game	9.2 #9
4.3 #20	Blocks per game	4.0 #25

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves @ Celtics

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Timberwolves

Celtics

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Timberwolves

Celtics