Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Feb 12, 7:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena · at Raptors · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Cavaliers and Raptors
CLE	This season	TOR
4-2	Record	3-3
2-4	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 116–114 · win probability TOR 55%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 229.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

CLE 4, TOR 4 · 2026-27 so far

CLEBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CLE 28.9, TOR 27.7. Allowed: CLE 23.2, TOR 41.5

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CLE 14.2%, TOR 13.5%. Forced: CLE 14.1%, TOR 20.8%

CLEBig

Three-pointers

CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%; TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 43.6% and 38.1% of their shots

CLEBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5; TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4

TORSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CLE 26.7%, TOR 32.6%. Defensive: CLE 73.9%, TOR 73.4%

CLESmall

CLE offense vs TOR defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

TORSmall

TOR offense vs CLE defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

TORSmall

Home court

TOR at home. This season: TOR 2-1 at home, CLE 1-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

CLE has played the 24th-hardest schedule, TOR the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: CLE plays 106.2 a game (3rd fastest), TOR 105.5 (8th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6; TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CLE 100%, TOR 100%. Transfers in: CLE 0, TOR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: CLE away; TOR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 14	vs PHX	L113–126LO
Feb 16	vs MIL	W136–111WO
Feb 17	vs MIL	W136–111WO

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 14	@ BOS	L101–115LU
Feb 16	@ ATL	W118–100WU
Feb 17	@ CHA	W97–96LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 25 since 2021-22

CLE 14–11 TORCLE leads · 25 games since 2021-22 · CLE 11-14 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
May 3, 2025-26	TOR 102 @ CLE 114	CLE -8.5	CLE W
May 1, 2025-26	CLE 110 @ TOR 112	TOR +4.5	TOR W
Apr 29, 2025-26	TOR 120 @ CLE 125	CLE -9.5	TOR W
Apr 26, 2025-26	CLE 89 @ TOR 93	TOR +4.5	TOR W
Apr 23, 2025-26	CLE 104 @ TOR 126	TOR +2.5	TOR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Cavaliers 4, Raptors 1, even 0

CavaliersBetterRaptors

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

CLESmall

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

CLESmall

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

CLESmall

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

TORBig

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

CLEBig

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

CavaliersBetterRaptors

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

CLESmall

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

TORSmall

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

CLEBig

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

TORSmall

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

CLESmall

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCLE betterTOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CLE121.0 #2

TOR118.2 #10

Points per possession

CLE1.14 #7

TOR1.11 #13

Pace (possessions)

CLE106.2 #3

TOR105.5 #8

Shooting

Effective FG%

CLE55.3 #7

TOR51.0 #22

3-point %

CLE37.0 #8

TOR32.0 #24

3-point attempt rate

CLE43.6 #12

TOR38.1 #25

Free throw rate

CLE28.9 #13

TOR27.7 #18

Possessions

Turnover rate

CLE14.2 #6

TOR13.5 #3

Offensive rebound rate

CLE26.7 #20

TOR32.6 #2

Assists per game

CLE28.7 #4

TOR29.2 #2

Defense

Points allowed

CLE116.0 #20

TOR110.3 #13

Points allowed per possession

CLE1.09 #14

TOR1.05 #5

Opponent effective FG%

CLE52.5 #12

TOR53.4 #16

Opponent 3-point %

CLE33.7 #11

TOR36.7 #21

Turnovers forced

CLE14.1 #25

TOR20.8 #1

Defensive rebound rate

CLE73.9 #11

TOR73.4 #13

Steals per game

CLE7.8 #22

TOR12.7 #2

Blocks per game

CLE6.3 #6

TOR4.3 #19

CLE		TOR
Scoring
121.0 #2	Points per game	118.2 #10
1.14 #7	Points per possession	1.11 #13
106.2 #3	Pace (possessions)	105.5 #8
Shooting
55.3 #7	Effective FG%	51.0 #22
37.0 #8	3-point %	32.0 #24
43.6 #12	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #25
28.9 #13	Free throw rate	27.7 #18
Possessions
14.2 #6	Turnover rate	13.5 #3
26.7 #20	Offensive rebound rate	32.6 #2
28.7 #4	Assists per game	29.2 #2
Defense
116.0 #20	Points allowed	110.3 #13
1.09 #14	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #5
52.5 #12	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #16
33.7 #11	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #21
14.1 #25	Turnovers forced	20.8 #1
73.9 #11	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #13
7.8 #22	Steals per game	12.7 #2
6.3 #6	Blocks per game	4.3 #19

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers @ Raptors

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Cavaliers

Raptors

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Cavaliers

Raptors