Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Feb 12, 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · at Wizards · Conference game

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nets and Wizards
BKN	This season	WSH
1-5	Record	3-3
3-3	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WSH 116–110 · win probability WSH 67%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

BKN 1, WSH 4 · 2026-27 so far

BKNBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BKN 25.4%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: BKN 77.8%, WSH 68.0%

WSHBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: BKN 32.9, WSH 34.2. Allowed: BKN 33.5, WSH 21.8

Context

Schedule so far

BKN has played the 19th-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

WSHSmall

BKN offense vs WSH defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: BKN plays 105.1 a game (10th fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points

WSHSmall

Home court

WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, BKN 1-2 away

Even

WSH offense vs BKN defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4

Even

Three-pointers

BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 48.0% and 37.6% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BKN 18.2%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: BKN 15.9%, WSH 13.3%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BKN 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: BKN 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	3-0	—
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: BKN away; WSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 14	@ MIA	L110–126LO
Feb 17	vs ATL	L107–141LO
Feb 25	vs PHI	L97–104WU

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 13	vs MIL	W128–116WO
Feb 15	vs PHX	L93–112LU
Feb 17	vs MIA	L117–140LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

BKN 13–6 WSHBKN leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · BKN has won the last 2 meetings · BKN 12-6-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 5, 2025-26	WSH 115 @ BKN 121	BKN -3.5	BKN W
Feb 7, 2025-26	WSH 113 @ BKN 127	BKN -8.5	BKN W
Jan 2, 2025-26	BKN 99 @ WSH 119	WSH -2.5	WSH W
Nov 16, 2025-26	BKN 129 @ WSH 106	WSH -2.5	BKN W
Mar 29, 2024-25	BKN 115 @ WSH 112	WSH -2.5	BKN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Nets 1, Wizards 1, even 3

NetsBetterWizards

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

Even

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

Even

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

WSHBig

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

BKNBig

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

No call

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

NetsBetterWizards

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

WSHSmall

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Even

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

WSHBig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

WSHBig

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBKN betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BKN108.2 #25

WSH110.5 #20

Points per possession

BKN1.03 #29

WSH1.08 #19

Pace (possessions)

BKN105.1 #10

WSH102.3 #20

Shooting

Effective FG%

BKN50.7 #26

WSH52.1 #20

3-point %

BKN35.1 #15

WSH29.3 #29

3-point attempt rate

BKN48.0 #3

WSH37.6 #28

Free throw rate

BKN32.9 #6

WSH34.2 #5

Possessions

Turnover rate

BKN18.2 #27

WSH14.6 #8

Offensive rebound rate

BKN25.4 #23

WSH20.9 #29

Assists per game

BKN22.8 #28

WSH24.5 #24

Defense

Points allowed

BKN116.0 #21

WSH109.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

BKN1.11 #18

WSH1.07 #11

Opponent effective FG%

BKN55.3 #23

WSH48.1 #1

Opponent 3-point %

BKN35.8 #19

WSH28.7 #1

Turnovers forced

BKN15.9 #12

WSH13.3 #27

Defensive rebound rate

BKN77.8 #2

WSH68.0 #28

Steals per game

BKN9.0 #14

WSH7.2 #24

Blocks per game

BKN4.7 #17

WSH5.3 #9

BKN		WSH
Scoring
108.2 #25	Points per game	110.5 #20
1.03 #29	Points per possession	1.08 #19
105.1 #10	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #20
Shooting
50.7 #26	Effective FG%	52.1 #20
35.1 #15	3-point %	29.3 #29
48.0 #3	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #28
32.9 #6	Free throw rate	34.2 #5
Possessions
18.2 #27	Turnover rate	14.6 #8
25.4 #23	Offensive rebound rate	20.9 #29
22.8 #28	Assists per game	24.5 #24
Defense
116.0 #21	Points allowed	109.7 #11
1.11 #18	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #11
55.3 #23	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #1
35.8 #19	Opponent 3-point %	28.7 #1
15.9 #12	Turnovers forced	13.3 #27
77.8 #2	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #28
9.0 #14	Steals per game	7.2 #24
4.7 #17	Blocks per game	5.3 #9

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Nets @ Wizards

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nets

Wizards

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nets

Wizards