Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Feb 13, 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · at Wizards · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bucks and Wizards
MIL	This season	WSH
1-5	Record	3-3
2-4	ATS	3-3
5-1	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WSH 119–114 · win probability WSH 66%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

MIL 1, WSH 4 · 2026-27 so far

MILBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, WSH 68.0%

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, WSH 34.2. Allowed: MIL 29.7, WSH 21.8

WSHBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points

WSHSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, WSH 13.3%

WSHSmall

Home court

WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, MIL 0-2 away

Even

MIL offense vs WSH defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

WSH offense vs MIL defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 45.9% and 37.6% of their shots

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: MIL away; WSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 16	@ CLE	L111–136LO
Feb 17	@ CLE	L111–136LO
Feb 25	vs WSH	L116–128LO

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 15	vs PHX	L93–112LU
Feb 17	vs MIA	L117–140LO
Feb 25	@ MIL	W128–116WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

MIL 11–7 WSHMIL leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · WSH has won the last 4 meetings · MIL 6-11-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 21, 2026-27	MIL 116 @ WSH 128	WSH -4.5	WSH W
Jan 29, 2025-26	MIL 99 @ WSH 109	WSH +1.5	WSH W
Dec 31, 2025-26	WSH 114 @ MIL 113	MIL -10.5	WSH W
Dec 1, 2025-26	MIL 126 @ WSH 129	WSH +10.5	WSH W
Oct 22, 2025-26	WSH 120 @ MIL 133	MIL -8.5	MIL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Wizards has the better starters

Position by position: Bucks 0, Wizards 2, even 3

BucksBetterWizards

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

WSHSmall

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

Even

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

WSHBig

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

Even

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

No call

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

BucksBetterWizards

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

Even

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

Even

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

WSHBig

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

WSHBig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

MILBig

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIL betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIL113.0 #17

WSH110.5 #20

Points per possession

MIL1.07 #20

WSH1.08 #19

Pace (possessions)

MIL106.2 #4

WSH102.3 #20

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIL52.0 #21

WSH52.1 #20

3-point %

MIL33.9 #21

WSH29.3 #29

3-point attempt rate

MIL45.9 #8

WSH37.6 #28

Free throw rate

MIL23.9 #25

WSH34.2 #5

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIL15.8 #18

WSH14.6 #8

Offensive rebound rate

MIL29.7 #8

WSH20.9 #29

Assists per game

MIL26.0 #20

WSH24.5 #24

Defense

Points allowed

MIL126.2 #28

WSH109.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

MIL1.18 #28

WSH1.07 #11

Opponent effective FG%

MIL55.4 #24

WSH48.1 #1

Opponent 3-point %

MIL34.9 #14

WSH28.7 #1

Turnovers forced

MIL12.2 #30

WSH13.3 #27

Defensive rebound rate

MIL74.2 #10

WSH68.0 #28

Steals per game

MIL5.7 #30

WSH7.2 #24

Blocks per game

MIL4.0 #27

WSH5.3 #9

MIL		WSH
Scoring
113.0 #17	Points per game	110.5 #20
1.07 #20	Points per possession	1.08 #19
106.2 #4	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #20
Shooting
52.0 #21	Effective FG%	52.1 #20
33.9 #21	3-point %	29.3 #29
45.9 #8	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #28
23.9 #25	Free throw rate	34.2 #5
Possessions
15.8 #18	Turnover rate	14.6 #8
29.7 #8	Offensive rebound rate	20.9 #29
26.0 #20	Assists per game	24.5 #24
Defense
126.2 #28	Points allowed	109.7 #11
1.18 #28	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #11
55.4 #24	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #1
34.9 #14	Opponent 3-point %	28.7 #1
12.2 #30	Turnovers forced	13.3 #27
74.2 #10	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #28
5.7 #30	Steals per game	7.2 #24
4.0 #27	Blocks per game	5.3 #9

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Bucks @ Wizards

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bucks

Wizards

Wizards has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bucks

Wizards