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NBA · Sat, Feb 13

Warriors @ Knicks

Madison Square Garden · at Knicks
#13GSWarriors
@
#8NYKnicks
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GSThis seasonNY
4-3Record2-4
5-2ATS1-5
4-3O/U1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 115–109 · win probability NY 67%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 224.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

GS 5, NY 3 · 2026-27 so far
GSBig
Recent form
Last 5: GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0; NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4
GSSmall
NY offense vs GS defense
Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
NYSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GS 33.2%, NY 30.3%. Defensive: GS 70.4%, NY 78.7%
GSSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GS 16.7%, NY 15.2%. Forced: GS 17.6%, NY 13.2%
Context
Schedule so far
GS has played the 6th-hardest schedule, NY the 13th. A record against a soft schedule means less
GSSmall
Three-pointers
GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%; NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 47.1% and 43.2% of their shots
NYSmall
GS offense vs NY defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings
NYSmall
Home court
NY at home. This season: NY 1-2 at home, GS 2-2 away
GSSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: GS 55.3 and allows 56.0; NY 49.5 and allows 53.1
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: GS 28.8, NY 24.5. Allowed: GS 27.3, NY 25.9
Context
Tempo
About 101 possessions: GS plays 101.4 a game (25th fastest), NY 101.0 (28th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GS 100%, NY 100%. Transfers in: GS 0, NY 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelNY -6.1
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model224.3
Model edge—
Projected score
GS 109.1 · NY 115.2
Win probability
NY 67%
1st half
Spread
NY -3.3
Total
112.5
Projected score
GS 54.6 · NY 57.9
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Warriors 0, Knicks 2, even 3
WarriorsBetterKnicks
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72
Even
G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62
NYSmall
G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5
NYBig
G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78
Even
F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72
Even
C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80
WarriorsBetterKnicks
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
NYSmall
NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
GSSmall
NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
NYBig
Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
NYBig
Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
Even
Bench+5.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestGS betterNY betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Warriors
Guards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day
Knicks
Guards
J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min
Forwards
O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew
Centers
K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min
Out
J. AlvaradoOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GSNY
Scoring
117.7 #11Points per game107.0 #27
1.17 #3Points per possession1.05 #24
101.4 #25Pace (possessions)101.0 #28
Shooting
55.3 #8Effective FG%49.5 #27
40.0 #23-point %35.2 #13
47.1 #53-point attempt rate43.2 #14
28.8 #15Free throw rate24.5 #23
Possessions
16.7 #22Turnover rate15.2 #14
33.2 #1Offensive rebound rate30.3 #6
27.4 #10Assists per game26.2 #18
Defense
114.9 #16Points allowed107.7 #6
1.13 #21Points allowed per possession1.07 #12
56.0 #25Opponent effective FG%53.1 #14
35.2 #16Opponent 3-point %35.5 #18
17.6 #5Turnovers forced13.2 #29
70.4 #23Defensive rebound rate78.7 #1
9.1 #11Steals per game7.3 #23
4.1 #24Blocks per game4.0 #28
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Clippers124–112
  • Wvs Lakers112–95
  • W@ Timberwolves119–114
  • W@ Nuggets134–114
  • L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ 76ers93–98
  • W@ Bulls133–127
  • Wvs Pistons111–97
  • Lvs Magic102–111
  • L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.