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NBA · Wed, Feb 17

Knicks @ Pistons

Little Caesars Arena · at Pistons · Conference game
#8NYKnicks
@
#4DETPistons
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NYThis seasonDET
2-4Record5-1
1-5ATS5-1
1-5O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 109–106 · win probability DET 59%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 215.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

NY 2, DET 6 · 2026-27 so far
DETBig
NY offense vs DET defense
Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
NYBig
DET offense vs NY defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings
NYBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NY 30.3%, DET 27.2%. Defensive: NY 78.7%, DET 72.8%
DETBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: NY 49.5 and allows 53.1; DET 53.1 and allows 48.8
DETBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NY 15.2%, DET 15.6%. Forced: NY 13.2%, DET 17.1%
DETBig
Recent form
Last 5: NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4; DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0
DETSmall
Three-pointers
NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%; DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%. Threes are 43.2% and 43.3% of their shots
DETSmall
Home court
DET at home. This season: DET 2-0 at home, NY 1-2 away
Context
Schedule so far
NY has played the 13th-hardest schedule, DET the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: NY 24.5, DET 28.9. Allowed: NY 25.9, DET 28.1
Context
Tempo
About 101 possessions: NY plays 101.0 a game (28th fastest), DET 100.9 (29th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NY 100%, DET 100%. Transfers in: NY 0, DET 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDET -3.1
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model215.2
Model edge—
Projected score
NY 106.1 · DET 109.1
Win probability
DET 59%
1st half
Spread
DET -1.6
Total
108.2
Projected score
NY 53.3 · DET 54.9
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Knicks 2, Pistons 1, even 2
KnicksBetterPistons
G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86
NYBig
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47
G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91
Even
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79
G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75
Even
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77
F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73
DETSmall
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97
C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80
NYBig
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30
KnicksBetterPistons
NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8
DETBig
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2
NYBig
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players
NYBig
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players
DETSmall
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
Bench+5.0 · 5 players
DETBig
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNY betterDET betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Knicks
Guards
J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min
Forwards
O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew
Centers
K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min
Out
J. AlvaradoOut
Pistons
Guards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NYDET
Scoring
107.0 #27Points per game109.8 #21
1.05 #24Points per possession1.09 #18
101.0 #28Pace (possessions)100.9 #29
Shooting
49.5 #27Effective FG%53.1 #17
35.2 #133-point %36.3 #9
43.2 #143-point attempt rate43.3 #13
24.5 #23Free throw rate28.9 #14
Possessions
15.2 #14Turnover rate15.6 #17
30.3 #6Offensive rebound rate27.2 #17
26.2 #18Assists per game26.7 #15
Defense
107.7 #6Points allowed101.8 #1
1.07 #12Points allowed per possession1.01 #1
53.1 #14Opponent effective FG%48.8 #2
35.5 #18Opponent 3-point %32.5 #10
13.2 #29Turnovers forced17.1 #6
78.7 #1Defensive rebound rate72.8 #15
7.3 #23Steals per game9.0 #12
4.0 #28Blocks per game6.7 #4
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ 76ers93–98
  • W@ Bulls133–127
  • Wvs Pistons111–97
  • Lvs Magic102–111
  • L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Nets110–94
  • Wvs Hornets97–89
  • L@ Knicks97–111
  • W@ 76ers106–93
  • W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.