Charlotte Hornets at New York Knicks: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Feb 9, 7:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden · at Knicks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and Knicks
CHA	This season	NY
3-4	Record	2-4
3-4	ATS	1-5
1-6	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 110–101 · win probability NY 76%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 211.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

CHA 1, NY 5 · 2026-27 so far

NYBig

CHA offense vs NY defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

CHABig

NY offense vs CHA defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

NYBig

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 50.8% and 43.2% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, NY the 13th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NYSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, NY 24.5. Allowed: CHA 28.4, NY 25.9

NYSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, NY 15.2%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, NY 13.2%

NYSmall

Home court

NY at home. This season: NY 1-2 at home, CHA 1-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; NY 49.5 and allows 53.1

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, NY 30.3%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, NY 78.7%

Context

Tempo

About 100 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), NY 101.0 (28th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, NY 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, NY 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	1-2	—

Venue/role: CHA away; NY home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 11	vs MIL	L121–122WO
Feb 13	vs DAL	W117–90WU
Feb 15	vs MIN	W122–108WO

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 11	@ PHI	L93–98LU
Feb 13	vs GS	W110–107LU
Feb 15	@ MEM	W130–119LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

CHA 7–11 NYNY leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · CHA has won the last 2 meetings · CHA 8-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 12, 2025-26	CHA 110 @ NY 96	NY +14.5	NY W
Mar 26, 2025-26	NY 103 @ CHA 114	CHA -2.5	CHA W
Dec 3, 2025-26	CHA 104 @ NY 119	NY -9.5	NY W
Nov 26, 2025-26	NY 129 @ CHA 101	CHA +6.5	NY W
Mar 20, 2024-25	NY 98 @ CHA 115	CHA +7.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Hornets 0, Knicks 3, even 2

HornetsBetterKnicks

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

NYBig

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

NYSmall

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

Even

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

Even

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

NYBig

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

HornetsBetterKnicks

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

NYBig

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

CHABig

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

NYBig

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

NYBig

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

NYBig

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterNY betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHA98.3 #30

NY107.0 #27

Points per possession

CHA0.99 #30

NY1.05 #24

Pace (possessions)

CHA98.3 #30

NY101.0 #28

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHA48.4 #29

NY49.5 #27

3-point %

CHA29.6 #28

NY35.2 #13

3-point attempt rate

CHA50.8 #2

NY43.2 #14

Free throw rate

CHA18.9 #30

NY24.5 #23

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHA18.8 #29

NY15.2 #14

Offensive rebound rate

CHA31.6 #4

NY30.3 #6

Assists per game

CHA21.6 #30

NY26.2 #18

Defense

Points allowed

CHA106.4 #4

NY107.7 #6

Points allowed per possession

CHA1.09 #15

NY1.07 #12

Opponent effective FG%

CHA53.1 #15

NY53.1 #14

Opponent 3-point %

CHA37.5 #24

NY35.5 #18

Turnovers forced

CHA14.5 #23

NY13.2 #29

Defensive rebound rate

CHA76.6 #5

NY78.7 #1

Steals per game

CHA7.1 #25

NY7.3 #23

Blocks per game

CHA5.0 #15

NY4.0 #28

CHA		NY
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	107.0 #27
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.05 #24
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	101.0 #28
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	49.5 #27
29.6 #28	3-point %	35.2 #13
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	43.2 #14
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	24.5 #23
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	15.2 #14
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	30.3 #6
21.6 #30	Assists per game	26.2 #18
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	107.7 #6
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #12
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #14
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #18
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	13.2 #29
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	78.7 #1
7.1 #25	Steals per game	7.3 #23
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	4.0 #28

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Hornets @ Knicks

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Knicks

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

Knicks