Golden State Warriors at Chicago Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Feb 9, 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · at Bulls

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Warriors and Bulls
GS	This season	CHI
4-3	Record	1-5
5-2	ATS	3-3
4-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GS 124–116 · win probability GS 72%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 240.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

GS 6, CHI 1 · 2026-27 so far

GSBig

GS offense vs CHI defense

Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

GSBig

Three-pointers

GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%; CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%. Threes are 47.1% and 47.9% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: GS plays 101.4 a game (25th fastest), CHI 109.8 (1st). Faster games mean more points

GSBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: GS 55.3 and allows 56.0; CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0

Context

Schedule so far

GS has played the 6th-hardest schedule, CHI the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GSSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: GS 16.7%, CHI 16.2%. Forced: GS 17.6%, CHI 14.7%

GSSmall

Recent form

Last 5: GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0; CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4

GSSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: GS 33.2%, CHI 29.2%. Defensive: GS 70.4%, CHI 69.8%

CHISmall

Home court

CHI at home. This season: CHI 0-2 at home, GS 2-2 away

Even

CHI offense vs GS defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: GS 28.8, CHI 38.3. Allowed: GS 27.3, CHI 33.5

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: GS 100%, CHI 100%. Transfers in: GS 0, CHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GS WWWWW	5-2	71%	3-1	—
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: GS away; CHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GS OOOUO	4-3	57%	4-3
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GSlast 7	4-3 57%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Warriors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 10	@ BOS	L99–120LO
Feb 13	@ NY	L107–110WU
Feb 15	vs IND	W114–83WU

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 11	@ DEN	L120–136LO
Feb 14	@ POR	L112–121LU
Feb 16	@ LAL	L130–142LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

GS 7–3 CHIGS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · GS 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 10, 2025-26	CHI 130 @ GS 124	GS -6.5	CHI W
Dec 7, 2025-26	GS 123 @ CHI 91	CHI +1.5	GS W
Feb 8, 2024-25	GS 132 @ CHI 111	CHI +6.5	GS W
Jan 23, 2024-25	CHI 106 @ GS 131	GS -4.5	GS W
Mar 7, 2023-24	CHI 125 @ GS 122	GS -8.5	CHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Warriors

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAL	L 105-127	+6.5	L −15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsMEM	L 108-111	-4.5	L −7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 24	@PHX	L 122-131	+9.5	W +0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@DEN	W 134-114	+6.5	W +26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@MIN	W 119-114	+3.5	W +8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAL	W 112-95	+2.5	W +19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsLAC	W 124-112	-1.5	W +10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−15.5

MEM

L 108-111

−7.5

PHX

L 122-131

+0.5

DEN

W 134-114

+26.5

MIN

W 119-114

+8.5

LAL

W 112-95

+19.5

LAC

W 124-112

+10.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−1.5

MEM

L 108-111

−17.5

PHX

L 122-131

+31.5

DEN

W 134-114

+11.5

MIN

W 119-114

+5.5

LAL

W 112-95

−27.5

LAC

W 124-112

+15.5

over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Warriors has the better starters

Position by position: Warriors 3, Bulls 0, even 2

WarriorsBetterBulls

G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72

Even

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62

GSSmall

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5

Even

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78

GSBig

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72

GSBig

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

WarriorsBetterBulls

GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9

GSBig

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3

Even

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players

GSBig

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

Bench+5.4 · 5 players

GSBig

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestGS betterCHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Warriors

Guards

B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min

Forwards

Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min

Centers

A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min

Out

S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

GS117.7 #11

CHI113.5 #16

Points per possession

GS1.17 #3

CHI1.04 #26

Pace (possessions)

GS101.4 #25

CHI109.8 #1

Shooting

Effective FG%

GS55.3 #8

CHI48.2 #30

3-point %

GS40.0 #2

CHI28.1 #30

3-point attempt rate

GS47.1 #5

CHI47.9 #4

Free throw rate

GS28.8 #15

CHI38.3 #1

Possessions

Turnover rate

GS16.7 #22

CHI16.2 #20

Offensive rebound rate

GS33.2 #1

CHI29.2 #9

Assists per game

GS27.4 #10

CHI24.3 #25

Defense

Points allowed

GS114.9 #16

CHI129.3 #30

Points allowed per possession

GS1.13 #21

CHI1.17 #27

Opponent effective FG%

GS56.0 #25

CHI56.0 #26

Opponent 3-point %

GS35.2 #16

CHI39.3 #28

Turnovers forced

GS17.6 #5

CHI14.7 #21

Defensive rebound rate

GS70.4 #23

CHI69.8 #24

Steals per game

GS9.1 #11

CHI8.7 #17

Blocks per game

GS4.1 #24

CHI5.0 #12

GS		CHI
Scoring
117.7 #11	Points per game	113.5 #16
1.17 #3	Points per possession	1.04 #26
101.4 #25	Pace (possessions)	109.8 #1
Shooting
55.3 #8	Effective FG%	48.2 #30
40.0 #2	3-point %	28.1 #30
47.1 #5	3-point attempt rate	47.9 #4
28.8 #15	Free throw rate	38.3 #1
Possessions
16.7 #22	Turnover rate	16.2 #20
33.2 #1	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #9
27.4 #10	Assists per game	24.3 #25
Defense
114.9 #16	Points allowed	129.3 #30
1.13 #21	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #27
56.0 #25	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #26
35.2 #16	Opponent 3-point %	39.3 #28
17.6 #5	Turnovers forced	14.7 #21
70.4 #23	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #24
9.1 #11	Steals per game	8.7 #17
4.1 #24	Blocks per game	5.0 #12

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Clippers124–112
Wvs Lakers112–95
W@ Timberwolves119–114
W@ Nuggets134–114
L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Warriors @ Bulls

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Warriors

Bulls

Warriors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Warriors

Bulls