Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Feb 10, 7:30 PM ETTD Garden · at Celtics

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Warriors and Celtics
GS	This season	BOS
4-3	Record	5-1
5-2	ATS	3-3
4-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 117–109 · win probability BOS 71%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

GS 2, BOS 4 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

GS has played the 6th-hardest schedule, BOS the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BOSSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: GS 55.3 and allows 56.0; BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3

GSSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: GS 33.2%, BOS 28.3%. Defensive: GS 70.4%, BOS 68.4%

BOSSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: GS 16.7%, BOS 14.9%. Forced: GS 17.6%, BOS 17.8%

GSSmall

Recent form

Last 5: GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0; BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: GS plays 101.4 a game (25th fastest), BOS 103.0 (16th). Faster games mean more points

BOSSmall

Home court

BOS at home. This season: BOS 4-0 at home, GS 2-2 away

BOSSmall

GS offense vs BOS defense

Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: GS 28.8, BOS 32.3. Allowed: GS 27.3, BOS 31.7

Even

Three-pointers

GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%; BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 47.1% and 45.9% of their shots

Even

BOS offense vs GS defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: GS 100%, BOS 100%. Transfers in: GS 0, BOS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GS WWWWW	5-2	71%	3-1	—
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: GS away; BOS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GS OOOUO	4-3	57%	4-3
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GSlast 7	4-3 57%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Warriors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 13	@ NY	L107–110WU
Feb 15	vs IND	W114–83WU
Feb 17	vs NO	L109–113LU

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 12	vs MIN	L92–102LU
Feb 14	vs TOR	W115–101WU
Feb 17	@ OKC	W119–109WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 16 since 2021-22

GS 8–8 BOSSeries tied · 16 games since 2021-22 · BOS has won the last 3 meetings · GS 8-7-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 18, 2025-26	GS 99 @ BOS 120	BOS -11.5	BOS W
Feb 19, 2025-26	BOS 121 @ GS 110	GS +5.5	BOS W
Jan 20, 2024-25	BOS 125 @ GS 85	GS +8.5	BOS W
Nov 6, 2024-25	GS 118 @ BOS 112	BOS -6.5	GS W
Mar 3, 2023-24	GS 88 @ BOS 140	BOS -8.5	BOS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Warriors

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAL	L 105-127	+6.5	L −15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsMEM	L 108-111	-4.5	L −7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 24	@PHX	L 122-131	+9.5	W +0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@DEN	W 134-114	+6.5	W +26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@MIN	W 119-114	+3.5	W +8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAL	W 112-95	+2.5	W +19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsLAC	W 124-112	-1.5	W +10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−15.5

MEM

L 108-111

−7.5

PHX

L 122-131

+0.5

DEN

W 134-114

+26.5

MIN

W 119-114

+8.5

LAL

W 112-95

+19.5

LAC

W 124-112

+10.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−1.5

MEM

L 108-111

−17.5

PHX

L 122-131

+31.5

DEN

W 134-114

+11.5

MIN

W 119-114

+5.5

LAL

W 112-95

−27.5

LAC

W 124-112

+15.5

over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Warriors 0, Celtics 2, even 3

WarriorsBetterCeltics

G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72

BOSSmall

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62

Even

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5

BOSBig

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78

Even

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72

Even

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

WarriorsBetterCeltics

GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9

Even

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3

Even

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players

BOSBig

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

Bench+5.4 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestGS betterBOS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Warriors

Guards

B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min

Forwards

Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min

Centers

A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min

Out

S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

GS117.7 #11

BOS118.7 #8

Points per possession

GS1.17 #3

BOS1.15 #6

Pace (possessions)

GS101.4 #25

BOS103.0 #16

Shooting

Effective FG%

GS55.3 #8

BOS55.0 #10

3-point %

GS40.0 #2

BOS35.5 #10

3-point attempt rate

GS47.1 #5

BOS45.9 #7

Free throw rate

GS28.8 #15

BOS32.3 #7

Possessions

Turnover rate

GS16.7 #22

BOS14.9 #11

Offensive rebound rate

GS33.2 #1

BOS28.3 #12

Assists per game

GS27.4 #10

BOS28.0 #6

Defense

Points allowed

GS114.9 #16

BOS109.2 #9

Points allowed per possession

GS1.13 #21

BOS1.06 #9

Opponent effective FG%

GS56.0 #25

BOS51.3 #7

Opponent 3-point %

GS35.2 #16

BOS33.8 #12

Turnovers forced

GS17.6 #5

BOS17.8 #3

Defensive rebound rate

GS70.4 #23

BOS68.4 #27

Steals per game

GS9.1 #11

BOS9.2 #9

Blocks per game

GS4.1 #24

BOS4.0 #25

GS		BOS
Scoring
117.7 #11	Points per game	118.7 #8
1.17 #3	Points per possession	1.15 #6
101.4 #25	Pace (possessions)	103.0 #16
Shooting
55.3 #8	Effective FG%	55.0 #10
40.0 #2	3-point %	35.5 #10
47.1 #5	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #7
28.8 #15	Free throw rate	32.3 #7
Possessions
16.7 #22	Turnover rate	14.9 #11
33.2 #1	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #12
27.4 #10	Assists per game	28.0 #6
Defense
114.9 #16	Points allowed	109.2 #9
1.13 #21	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #9
56.0 #25	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #7
35.2 #16	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #12
17.6 #5	Turnovers forced	17.8 #3
70.4 #23	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #27
9.1 #11	Steals per game	9.2 #9
4.1 #24	Blocks per game	4.0 #25

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Clippers124–112
Wvs Lakers112–95
W@ Timberwolves119–114
W@ Nuggets134–114
L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Warriors @ Celtics

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Warriors

Celtics

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Warriors

Celtics