FedExForum · at Grizzlies
LineNo line yet
Total—
 ORL | This season | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | Record | 6-0 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 6-0 |
| 3-3 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects MEM 116–114 · win probability MEM 56%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 229.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges
ORL 1, MEM 8 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
ORL has played the 1st-hardest schedule, MEM the 30th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MEMBigRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ORL 23.4%, MEM 30.6%. Defensive: ORL 68.9%, MEM 75.0%
MEMBigShooting
Effective FG%: ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0; MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2
MEMBigThree-pointers
ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%; MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%. Threes are 46.5% and 42.1% of their shots
MEMBigTurnovers
Turnover rate: ORL 17.0%, MEM 15.4%. Forced: ORL 13.6%, MEM 15.7%
ORLBigFree throws
Free throw rate: ORL 31.7, MEM 25.3. Allowed: ORL 29.8, MEM 31.4
MEMBigRecent form
Last 5: ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4; MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2
MEMSmallORL offense vs MEM defense
Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: ORL plays 101.9 a game (22nd fastest), MEM 103.6 (13th). Faster games mean more points
MEMSmallHome court
MEM at home. This season: MEM 2-0 at home, ORL 2-1 away
MEMSmallMEM offense vs ORL defense
Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ORL 100%, MEM 100%. Transfers in: ORL 0, MEM 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelMEM -2.2
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model229.4
Model edge—
Projected score
ORL 113.6 · MEM 115.8
Win probability
MEM 56%
1st half
Spread
MEM -1.1
Total
114.9
Projected score
ORL 56.9 · MEM 58
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORLlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% | 3-3 50% |
| MEMlast 6 | 6-0 100% | 6-0 100% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
ORL 2–8 MEMMEM leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · ORL 4-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025-26 | ORL 109 @ MEM 126 | MEM +2.5 | MEM W |
| Jan 15, 2025-26 | MEM 111 @ ORL 118 | ORL -5.5 | ORL W |
| Feb 21, 2024-25 | MEM 105 @ ORL 104 | ORL +1.5 | ORL W |
| Oct 26, 2024-25 | ORL 111 @ MEM 124 | MEM -0.5 | MEM W |
| Mar 30, 2023-24 | MEM 88 @ ORL 118 | ORL -13.5 | ORL W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Magic
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
ATL
ATLL 125-132
−9.5
23
vs
MIN
MINL 93-115
−23.5
25
@
NY
NYW 111-102
+15.5
28
@
TOR
TORL 99-129
−24.5
30
@TOR
TORW 121-114
+12.5
1
vs
BOS
BOSL 97-108
−4.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsATL
ATLL 125-132
+23.5
23
vsMIN
MINL 93-115
−26.5
25
@NY
NYW 111-102
−11.5
28
@TOR
TORL 99-129
+3.5
30
@TOR
TORW 121-114
+8.5
1
vsBOS
BOSL 97-108
−16.5
over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Grizzlies
6 games played
Straight up
6-0
100% wins
Against the spread
6-0
100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
UTAH
UTAHW 123-103
+18.5
23
@
GS
GSW 111-108
+7.5
25
@
SAC
SACW 123-112
+7.5
26
@UTAH
UTAHW 110-105
+3.5
29
@
POR
PORW 124-103
+28.5
31
vsSAC
SACW 136-105
+23.5
covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsUTAH
UTAHW 123-103
−14.5
23
@GS
GSW 111-108
−17.5
25
@SAC
SACW 123-112
+0.5
26
@UTAH
UTAHW 110-105
−22.5
29
@POR
PORW 124-103
−6.5
31
vsSAC
SACW 136-105
+11.5
over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Grizzlies has the better starters
Position by position: Magic 1, Grizzlies 4, even 0
MagicBetterGrizzlies
G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 62
→MEMBig
G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 97
G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast
Score 3
→MEMBig
F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast
Score 87
F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast
Score 90
←ORLBig
F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast
Score 33
F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 35
→MEMBig
F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast
Score 85
C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 28
→MEMBig
C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast
Score 92
MagicBetterGrizzlies
ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5
→MEMSmall
MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1
ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1
=Even
MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3
Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players
→MEMBig
Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player
Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players
→MEMBig
Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players
Bench-1.8 · 5 players
←ORLBig
Bench-18.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestORL betterMEM betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
MagicGuards
D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min
Forwards
F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min
Centers
W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min
Out
J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut
GrizzliesGuards
T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min
Forwards
C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min
Centers
Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min
Out
S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
ORL107.7 #26MEM121.2 #1Points per possession
ORL1.07 #21MEM1.16 #4Pace (possessions)
ORL101.9 #22MEM103.6 #13Shooting
Effective FG%
ORL53.4 #15MEM55.9 #53-point %
ORL35.4 #11MEM41.7 #13-point attempt rate
ORL46.5 #6MEM42.1 #19Free throw rate
ORL31.7 #9MEM25.3 #22Possessions
Turnover rate
ORL17.0 #24MEM15.4 #16Offensive rebound rate
ORL23.4 #26MEM30.6 #5Assists per game
ORL26.3 #16MEM27.0 #13Defense
Points allowed
ORL116.7 #22MEM106.0 #3Points allowed per possession
ORL1.13 #24MEM1.03 #2Opponent effective FG%
ORL53.0 #13MEM49.2 #3Opponent 3-point %
ORL34.6 #13MEM30.0 #3Turnovers forced
ORL13.6 #26MEM15.7 #15Defensive rebound rate
ORL68.9 #26MEM75.0 #9Steals per game
ORL7.0 #26MEM6.3 #28Blocks per game
ORL4.2 #23MEM5.2 #11| ORL | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 107.7 #26 | Points per game | 121.2 #1 |
| 1.07 #21 | Points per possession | 1.16 #4 |
| 101.9 #22 | Pace (possessions) | 103.6 #13 |
| Shooting | ||
| 53.4 #15 | Effective FG% | 55.9 #5 |
| 35.4 #11 | 3-point % | 41.7 #1 |
| 46.5 #6 | 3-point attempt rate | 42.1 #19 |
| 31.7 #9 | Free throw rate | 25.3 #22 |
| Possessions | ||
| 17.0 #24 | Turnover rate | 15.4 #16 |
| 23.4 #26 | Offensive rebound rate | 30.6 #5 |
| 26.3 #16 | Assists per game | 27.0 #13 |
| Defense | ||
| 116.7 #22 | Points allowed | 106.0 #3 |
| 1.13 #24 | Points allowed per possession | 1.03 #2 |
| 53.0 #13 | Opponent effective FG% | 49.2 #3 |
| 34.6 #13 | Opponent 3-point % | 30.0 #3 |
| 13.6 #26 | Turnovers forced | 15.7 #15 |
| 68.9 #26 | Defensive rebound rate | 75.0 #9 |
| 7.0 #26 | Steals per game | 6.3 #28 |
| 4.2 #23 | Blocks per game | 5.2 #11 |
Magic
2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Celtics97–108
- W@ Raptors121–114
- L@ Raptors99–129
- W@ Knicks111–102
- Lvs Timberwolves93–115
A week or more of rest.
Grizzlies
6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Kings136–105
- W@ Trail Blazers124–103
- W@ Jazz110–105
- W@ Kings123–112
- W@ Warriors111–108
A week or more of rest.