Orlando Magic at Oklahoma City Thunder: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Feb 15, 8:00 PM ETPaycom Center · at Thunder

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Magic and Thunder
ORL	This season	OKC
2-4	Record	4-2
2-4	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 114–108 · win probability OKC 68%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 222.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

ORL 1, OKC 4 · 2026-27 so far

OKCBig

ORL offense vs OKC defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

OKCBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ORL 17.0%, OKC 14.5%. Forced: ORL 13.6%, OKC 15.8%

OKCBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ORL 23.4%, OKC 28.5%. Defensive: ORL 68.9%, OKC 71.4%

ORLBig

Three-pointers

ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%; OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 46.5% and 35.8% of their shots

OKCSmall

Home court

OKC at home. This season: OKC 3-0 at home, ORL 2-1 away

Context

Schedule so far

ORL has played the 1st-hardest schedule, OKC the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: ORL 31.7, OKC 21.8. Allowed: ORL 29.8, OKC 23.4

Even

OKC offense vs ORL defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0; OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: ORL plays 101.9 a game (22nd fastest), OKC 101.1 (27th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4; OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ORL 100%, OKC 100%. Transfers in: ORL 0, OKC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	2-1	—
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: ORL away; OKC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 17	vs DAL	W138–127WO
Feb 25	vs CHA	W121–90WU
Feb 28	vs ATL	L125–132LO

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 17	vs BOS	L109–119LO
Feb 25	@ NY	W111–100WU
Feb 27	@ DET	W114–110LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

ORL 2–8 OKCOKC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 6 meetings · ORL 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 17, 2025-26	OKC 113 @ ORL 108	ORL +9.5	ORL W
Feb 3, 2025-26	ORL 92 @ OKC 128	OKC -11.5	OKC W
Dec 19, 2024-25	OKC 105 @ ORL 99	ORL +6.5	ORL W
Nov 4, 2024-25	ORL 86 @ OKC 102	OKC -12.5	OKC W
Feb 13, 2023-24	OKC 127 @ ORL 113	ORL +2.5	OKC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Magic 1, Thunder 3, even 1

MagicBetterThunder

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

OKCSmall

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

OKCBig

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

ORLBig

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

Even

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

OKCBig

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

MagicBetterThunder

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

OKCBig

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

Even

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

ORLSmall

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

ORLSmall

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestORL betterOKC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ORL107.7 #26

OKC106.5 #29

Points per possession

ORL1.07 #21

OKC1.05 #23

Pace (possessions)

ORL101.9 #22

OKC101.1 #27

Shooting

Effective FG%

ORL53.4 #15

OKC49.5 #28

3-point %

ORL35.4 #11

OKC30.9 #26

3-point attempt rate

ORL46.5 #6

OKC35.8 #29

Free throw rate

ORL31.7 #9

OKC21.8 #28

Possessions

Turnover rate

ORL17.0 #24

OKC14.5 #7

Offensive rebound rate

ORL23.4 #26

OKC28.5 #10

Assists per game

ORL26.3 #16

OKC21.7 #29

Defense

Points allowed

ORL116.7 #22

OKC107.0 #5

Points allowed per possession

ORL1.13 #24

OKC1.06 #7

Opponent effective FG%

ORL53.0 #13

OKC51.0 #6

Opponent 3-point %

ORL34.6 #13

OKC35.3 #17

Turnovers forced

ORL13.6 #26

OKC15.8 #13

Defensive rebound rate

ORL68.9 #26

OKC71.4 #18

Steals per game

ORL7.0 #26

OKC8.3 #20

Blocks per game

ORL4.2 #23

OKC6.3 #7

ORL		OKC
Scoring
107.7 #26	Points per game	106.5 #29
1.07 #21	Points per possession	1.05 #23
101.9 #22	Pace (possessions)	101.1 #27
Shooting
53.4 #15	Effective FG%	49.5 #28
35.4 #11	3-point %	30.9 #26
46.5 #6	3-point attempt rate	35.8 #29
31.7 #9	Free throw rate	21.8 #28
Possessions
17.0 #24	Turnover rate	14.5 #7
23.4 #26	Offensive rebound rate	28.5 #10
26.3 #16	Assists per game	21.7 #29
Defense
116.7 #22	Points allowed	107.0 #5
1.13 #24	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #7
53.0 #13	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #6
34.6 #13	Opponent 3-point %	35.3 #17
13.6 #26	Turnovers forced	15.8 #13
68.9 #26	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #18
7.0 #26	Steals per game	8.3 #20
4.2 #23	Blocks per game	6.3 #7

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Magic @ Thunder

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Magic

Thunder

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Magic

Thunder