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NBA · Wed, Feb 10

Pistons @ Suns

Mortgage Matchup Center · at Suns
#4DETPistons
@
#21PHXSuns
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DETThis seasonPHX
5-1Record1-3
5-1ATS0-4
2-4O/U3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 114–108 · win probability DET 67%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 222.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 224-242 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

DET 7, PHX 1 · 2026-27 so far
DETBig
PHX offense vs DET defense
Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
DET has played the 17th-hardest schedule, PHX the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
DETBig
Three-pointers
DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%; PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%. Threes are 43.3% and 45.1% of their shots
DETBig
Recent form
Last 4: DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0; PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5
DETBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: DET 53.1 and allows 48.8; PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7
DETBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: DET 28.9, PHX 22.8. Allowed: DET 28.1, PHX 31.1
DETSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DET 27.2%, PHX 28.3%. Defensive: DET 72.8%, PHX 65.1%
PHXSmall
Home court
PHX at home. This season: PHX 1-1 at home, DET 3-1 away
DETSmall
DET offense vs PHX defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 101 possessions: DET plays 100.9 a game (29th fastest), PHX 101.3 (26th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DET 15.6%, PHX 15.2%. Forced: DET 17.1%, PHX 17.1%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DET 100%, PHX 100%. Transfers in: DET 0, PHX 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDET -6.1
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model222.3
Model edge—
Projected score
DET 114.2 · PHX 108.1
Win probability
DET 67%
1st half
Spread
DET -3.6
Total
111.5
Projected score
DET 57.5 · PHX 54
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Pistons has the better starters

Position by position: Pistons 3, Suns 1, even 1
PistonsBetterSuns
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47
PHXBig
G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79
DETBig
G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77
DETBig
F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97
DETBig
F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30
Even
C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16
PistonsBetterSuns
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
Even
PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
DETBig
PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
Even
Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
DETBig
Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
DETBig
Bench+1.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDET betterPHX betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Pistons
Guards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
Suns
Guards
D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min
Forwards
M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min
Centers
K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams
DETPHX
Scoring
109.8Points per game112.0
1.09Points per possession1.12
100.9Pace (possessions)101.3
Shooting
53.1Effective FG%54.4
36.33-point %35.0
43.33-point attempt rate45.1
28.9Free throw rate22.8
Possessions
15.6Turnover rate15.2
27.2Offensive rebound rate28.3
26.7Assists per game27.5
Defense
101.8Points allowed124.5
1.01Points allowed per possession1.21
48.8Opponent effective FG%58.7
32.5Opponent 3-point %43.9
17.1Turnovers forced17.1
72.8Defensive rebound rate65.1
9.0Steals per game9.0
6.7Blocks per game5.3
DETPHX
Scoring
109.8 #21Points per game112.0 #19
1.09 #18Points per possession1.12 #12
100.9 #29Pace (possessions)101.3 #26
Shooting
53.1 #17Effective FG%54.4 #13
36.3 #93-point %35.0 #16
43.3 #133-point attempt rate45.1 #10
28.9 #14Free throw rate22.8 #27
Possessions
15.6 #17Turnover rate15.2 #15
27.2 #17Offensive rebound rate28.3 #11
26.7 #15Assists per game27.5 #8
Defense
101.8 #1Points allowed124.5 #27
1.01 #1Points allowed per possession1.21 #30
48.8 #2Opponent effective FG%58.7 #29
32.5 #10Opponent 3-point %43.9 #30
17.1 #6Turnovers forced17.1 #7
72.8 #15Defensive rebound rate65.1 #30
9.0 #12Steals per game9.0 #15
6.7 #4Blocks per game5.3 #10
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Nets110–94
  • Wvs Hornets97–89
  • L@ Knicks97–111
  • W@ 76ers106–93
  • W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Lvs Nuggets120–127
  • L@ Thunder114–125
  • Wvs Warriors131–122
  • L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.