American Airlines Center · at Mavericks · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 SA | This season | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 4-2 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects SA 117–112 · win probability SA 65%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 228.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: SA has more of the edges
SA 5, DAL 4 · 2026-27 so far
SABigTurnovers
Turnover rate: SA 13.1%, DAL 16.8%. Forced: SA 15.7%, DAL 14.5%
Context
Schedule so far
SA has played the 15th-hardest schedule, DAL the 2nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
DALBigThree-pointers
SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%; DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%. Threes are 39.0% and 42.1% of their shots
SABigSA offense vs DAL defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
SABigDAL offense vs SA defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
DALSmallShooting
Effective FG%: SA 53.3 and allows 52.1; DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3
SASmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SA 27.2%, DAL 27.8%. Defensive: SA 75.8%, DAL 69.4%
SASmallFree throws
Free throw rate: SA 24.5, DAL 21.4. Allowed: SA 21.7, DAL 27.2
DALSmallRecent form
Last 5: SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0; DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6
DALSmallHome court
DAL at home. This season: DAL 2-1 at home, SA 2-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: SA plays 104.3 a game (11th fastest), DAL 102.8 (18th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SA 100%, DAL 100%. Transfers in: SA 0, DAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelSA -5.4
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model228.6
Model edge—
Projected score
SA 117 · DAL 111.6
Win probability
SA 65%
1st half
Spread
SA -3.2
Total
114.5
Projected score
SA 58.8 · DAL 55.7
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% |
| DALlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22
SA 7–14 DALDAL leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · SA has won the last 6 meetings · SA 12-9 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026-27 | SA 122 @ DAL 106 | DAL +14.5 | SA W |
| Apr 10, 2025-26 | DAL 120 @ SA 139 | SA -18.5 | SA W |
| Feb 7, 2025-26 | DAL 125 @ SA 138 | SA -11.5 | SA W |
| Feb 5, 2025-26 | SA 135 @ DAL 123 | DAL +7.5 | SA W |
| Oct 22, 2025-26 | SA 125 @ DAL 92 | DAL -3.5 | SA W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Spurs
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
OKC
OKCL 104-116
−10.5
23
vs
HOU
HOUL 110-114
−8.5
24
@DAL
DALW 122-106
+1.5
27
vs
SAC
SACW 130-103
+7.5
28
@
UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−7.5
31
vs
MIN
MINW 121-111
−2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsOKC
OKCL 104-116
−9.5
23
vsHOU
HOUL 110-114
−0.5
24
@DAL
DALW 122-106
−1.5
27
vsSAC
SACW 130-103
+0.5
28
@UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−4.5
31
vsMIN
MINW 121-111
+1.5
over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Mavericks
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +10.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@HOU
HOUL 110-128
−8.5
23
@
IND
INDW 121-105
+23.5
24
vsSA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@
MIA
MIAW 113-109
+11.5
28
vsOKC
OKCW 120-96
+28.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+10.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@HOU
HOUL 110-128
+7.5
23
@IND
INDW 121-105
−15.5
24
vsSA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@MIA
MIAW 113-109
−18.5
28
vsOKC
OKCW 120-96
−11.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+3.5
over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Spurs has the better starters
Position by position: Spurs 3, Mavericks 1, even 1
SpursBetterMavericks
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast
Score 98
←SABig
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast
Score 9
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 53
→DALSmall
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 78
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast
Score 84
←SABig
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast
Score 49
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast
Score 69
=Even
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast
Score 65
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast
Score 98
←SABig
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 46
SpursBetterMavericks
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
←SABig
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
←SASmall
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
←SABig
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
←SASmall
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
←SABig
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSA betterDAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
SpursGuards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
MavericksGuards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
SA117.3 #12DAL114.3 #14Points per possession
SA1.12 #10DAL1.12 #11Pace (possessions)
SA104.3 #11DAL102.8 #18Shooting
Effective FG%
SA53.3 #16DAL56.9 #23-point %
SA34.9 #17DAL35.1 #143-point attempt rate
SA39.0 #24DAL42.1 #18Free throw rate
SA24.5 #24DAL21.4 #29Possessions
Turnover rate
SA13.1 #2DAL16.8 #23Offensive rebound rate
SA27.2 #16DAL27.8 #13Assists per game
SA27.5 #9DAL27.0 #12Defense
Points allowed
SA110.2 #12DAL111.8 #14Points allowed per possession
SA1.06 #6DAL1.08 #13Opponent effective FG%
SA52.1 #11DAL51.3 #9Opponent 3-point %
SA37.3 #23DAL29.7 #2Turnovers forced
SA15.7 #14DAL14.5 #24Defensive rebound rate
SA75.8 #7DAL69.4 #25Steals per game
SA9.2 #10DAL8.8 #16Blocks per game
SA7.0 #1DAL6.8 #2| SA | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 117.3 #12 | Points per game | 114.3 #14 |
| 1.12 #10 | Points per possession | 1.12 #11 |
| 104.3 #11 | Pace (possessions) | 102.8 #18 |
| Shooting | ||
| 53.3 #16 | Effective FG% | 56.9 #2 |
| 34.9 #17 | 3-point % | 35.1 #14 |
| 39.0 #24 | 3-point attempt rate | 42.1 #18 |
| 24.5 #24 | Free throw rate | 21.4 #29 |
| Possessions | ||
| 13.1 #2 | Turnover rate | 16.8 #23 |
| 27.2 #16 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.8 #13 |
| 27.5 #9 | Assists per game | 27.0 #12 |
| Defense | ||
| 110.2 #12 | Points allowed | 111.8 #14 |
| 1.06 #6 | Points allowed per possession | 1.08 #13 |
| 52.1 #11 | Opponent effective FG% | 51.3 #9 |
| 37.3 #23 | Opponent 3-point % | 29.7 #2 |
| 15.7 #14 | Turnovers forced | 14.5 #24 |
| 75.8 #7 | Defensive rebound rate | 69.4 #25 |
| 9.2 #10 | Steals per game | 8.8 #16 |
| 7.0 #1 | Blocks per game | 6.8 #2 |
Spurs
4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Timberwolves121–111
- W@ Jazz117–111
- Wvs Kings130–103
- W@ Mavericks122–106
- Lvs Rockets110–114
A week or more of rest.
Mavericks
4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Rockets116–111
- Wvs Thunder120–96
- W@ Heat113–109
- Lvs Spurs106–122
- W@ Pacers121–105
A week or more of rest.