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NBA · Sat, Feb 13

Mavericks @ Hornets

Spectrum Center · at Hornets
#17DALMavericks
@
#23CHAHornets
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DALThis seasonCHA
4-2Record3-4
4-2ATS3-4
2-4O/U1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAL 110–109 · win probability DAL 53%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 219.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges

DAL 4, CHA 3 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
DAL has played the 2nd-hardest schedule, CHA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
DALBig
Three-pointers
DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%; CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 42.1% and 50.8% of their shots
DALBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3; CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1
CHABig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DAL 27.8%, CHA 31.6%. Defensive: DAL 69.4%, CHA 76.6%
DALBig
CHA offense vs DAL defense
Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
CHABig
DAL offense vs CHA defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 101 possessions: DAL plays 102.8 a game (18th fastest), CHA 98.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points
DALSmall
Recent form
Last 5: DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6; CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4
CHASmall
Home court
CHA at home. This season: CHA 2-2 at home, DAL 2-1 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DAL 16.8%, CHA 18.8%. Forced: DAL 14.5%, CHA 14.5%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: DAL 21.4, CHA 18.9. Allowed: DAL 27.2, CHA 28.4
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DAL 100%, CHA 100%. Transfers in: DAL 0, CHA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDAL -1.1
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model219.7
Model edge—
Projected score
DAL 110.4 · CHA 109.3
Win probability
DAL 53%
1st half
Spread
DAL -0.8
Total
110.3
Projected score
DAL 55.6 · CHA 54.8
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Mavericks has the better starters

Position by position: Mavericks 2, Hornets 1, even 2
MavericksBetterHornets
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast Score 9
Even
G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78
DALSmall
G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast Score 49
CHASmall
F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 65
Even
F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 46
DALSmall
C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14
MavericksBetterHornets
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
CHASmall
CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
DALBig
CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
CHABig
Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
DALBig
Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
DALBig
Bench-5.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDAL betterCHA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Mavericks
Guards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
Hornets
Guards
D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew
Forwards
B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min
Centers
N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DALCHA
Scoring
114.3 #14Points per game98.3 #30
1.12 #11Points per possession0.99 #30
102.8 #18Pace (possessions)98.3 #30
Shooting
56.9 #2Effective FG%48.4 #29
35.1 #143-point %29.6 #28
42.1 #183-point attempt rate50.8 #2
21.4 #29Free throw rate18.9 #30
Possessions
16.8 #23Turnover rate18.8 #29
27.8 #13Offensive rebound rate31.6 #4
27.0 #12Assists per game21.6 #30
Defense
111.8 #14Points allowed106.4 #4
1.08 #13Points allowed per possession1.09 #15
51.3 #9Opponent effective FG%53.1 #15
29.7 #2Opponent 3-point %37.5 #24
14.5 #24Turnovers forced14.5 #23
69.4 #25Defensive rebound rate76.6 #5
8.8 #16Steals per game7.1 #25
6.8 #2Blocks per game5.0 #15
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mavericks

4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Rockets116–111
  • Wvs Thunder120–96
  • W@ Heat113–109
  • Lvs Spurs106–122
  • W@ Pacers121–105

A week or more of rest.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Lvs 76ers104–109
  • L@ Wizards79–95
  • L@ Pistons89–97
  • Wvs Wizards110–103
  • Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.