Milwaukee Bucks at Charlotte Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Feb 11, 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · at Hornets · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bucks and Hornets
MIL	This season	CHA
1-5	Record	3-4
2-4	ATS	3-4
5-1	O/U	1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CHA 115–106 · win probability CHA 72%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 220.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CHA has more of the edges

MIL 1, CHA 3 · 2026-27 so far

CHABig

MIL offense vs CHA defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), CHA 98.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points

MILSmall

Three-pointers

MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 45.9% and 50.8% of their shots

CHASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, CHA 31.6%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, CHA 76.6%

CHASmall

Home court

CHA at home. This season: CHA 2-2 at home, MIL 0-2 away

Even

CHA offense vs MIL defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, CHA 18.8%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, CHA 14.5%

Context

Schedule so far

MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, CHA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, CHA 18.9. Allowed: MIL 29.7, CHA 28.4

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, CHA 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, CHA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: MIL away; CHA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 13	@ WSH	L116–128LO
Feb 16	@ CLE	L111–136LO
Feb 17	@ CLE	L111–136LO

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 13	vs DAL	W117–90WU
Feb 15	vs MIN	W122–108WO
Feb 17	vs TOR	L96–97WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

MIL 13–5 CHAMIL leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · MIL has won the last 3 meetings · MIL 9-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 2, 2025-26	CHA 121 @ MIL 122	MIL -5.5	CHA W
Dec 29, 2025-26	MIL 123 @ CHA 113	CHA +2.5	MIL W
Nov 14, 2025-26	CHA 134 @ MIL 147	MIL -9.5	MIL W
Nov 12, 2025-26	MIL 100 @ CHA 111	CHA +2.5	CHA W
Feb 5, 2024-25	MIL 112 @ CHA 102	CHA +8.5	MIL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hornets has the better starters

Position by position: Bucks 1, Hornets 4, even 0

BucksBetterHornets

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

CHASmall

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

CHABig

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

CHASmall

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

CHABig

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

MILBig

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

BucksBetterHornets

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

CHABig

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

Even

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

CHABig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

CHASmall

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

MILBig

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIL betterCHA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIL113.0 #17

CHA98.3 #30

Points per possession

MIL1.07 #20

CHA0.99 #30

Pace (possessions)

MIL106.2 #4

CHA98.3 #30

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIL52.0 #21

CHA48.4 #29

3-point %

MIL33.9 #21

CHA29.6 #28

3-point attempt rate

MIL45.9 #8

CHA50.8 #2

Free throw rate

MIL23.9 #25

CHA18.9 #30

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIL15.8 #18

CHA18.8 #29

Offensive rebound rate

MIL29.7 #8

CHA31.6 #4

Assists per game

MIL26.0 #20

CHA21.6 #30

Defense

Points allowed

MIL126.2 #28

CHA106.4 #4

Points allowed per possession

MIL1.18 #28

CHA1.09 #15

Opponent effective FG%

MIL55.4 #24

CHA53.1 #15

Opponent 3-point %

MIL34.9 #14

CHA37.5 #24

Turnovers forced

MIL12.2 #30

CHA14.5 #23

Defensive rebound rate

MIL74.2 #10

CHA76.6 #5

Steals per game

MIL5.7 #30

CHA7.1 #25

Blocks per game

MIL4.0 #27

CHA5.0 #15

MIL		CHA
Scoring
113.0 #17	Points per game	98.3 #30
1.07 #20	Points per possession	0.99 #30
106.2 #4	Pace (possessions)	98.3 #30
Shooting
52.0 #21	Effective FG%	48.4 #29
33.9 #21	3-point %	29.6 #28
45.9 #8	3-point attempt rate	50.8 #2
23.9 #25	Free throw rate	18.9 #30
Possessions
15.8 #18	Turnover rate	18.8 #29
29.7 #8	Offensive rebound rate	31.6 #4
26.0 #20	Assists per game	21.6 #30
Defense
126.2 #28	Points allowed	106.4 #4
1.18 #28	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #15
55.4 #24	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #15
34.9 #14	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #24
12.2 #30	Turnovers forced	14.5 #23
74.2 #10	Defensive rebound rate	76.6 #5
5.7 #30	Steals per game	7.1 #25
4.0 #27	Blocks per game	5.0 #15

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Bucks @ Hornets

What could decide it: CHA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bucks

Hornets

Hornets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bucks

Hornets