New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Feb 11, 7:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · at 76ers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Knicks and 76ers
NY	This season	PHI
2-4	Record	6-1
1-5	ATS	4-3
1-5	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 109–107 · win probability NY 57%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 216.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

NY 2, PHI 4 · 2026-27 so far

NYBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NY 30.3%, PHI 19.9%. Defensive: NY 78.7%, PHI 70.8%

NYBig

PHI offense vs NY defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NY 15.2%, PHI 12.3%. Forced: NY 13.2%, PHI 17.0%

PHIBig

NY offense vs PHI defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

NY has played the 13th-hardest schedule, PHI the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PHISmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NY 49.5 and allows 53.1; PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: NY plays 101.0 a game (28th fastest), PHI 102.4 (19th). Faster games mean more points

PHISmall

Home court

PHI at home. This season: PHI 3-1 at home, NY 1-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4; PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6

Even

Three-pointers

NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%; PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 43.2% and 39.5% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NY 24.5, PHI 28.7. Allowed: NY 25.9, PHI 28.5

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NY 100%, PHI 100%. Transfers in: NY 0, PHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	0-3	—
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: NY away; PHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 13	vs GS	W110–107LU
Feb 15	@ MEM	W130–119LO
Feb 17	@ DET	W111–97WU

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 13	@ OKC	L103–123LU
Feb 15	@ DAL	W123–108WU
Feb 17	vs PHX	W109–103WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 32 since 2021-22

NY 21–11 PHINY leads · 32 games since 2021-22 · PHI has won the last 2 meetings · NY 18-14 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 30, 2026-27	NY 93 @ PHI 98	PHI +3.5	PHI W
Oct 20, 2026-27	PHI 106 @ NY 100	NY -4.5	PHI W
May 10, 2025-26	NY 144 @ PHI 114	PHI +1.5	NY W
May 8, 2025-26	NY 108 @ PHI 94	PHI -3.5	NY W
May 6, 2025-26	PHI 102 @ NY 108	NY -10.5	PHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Knicks 3, 76ers 1, even 1

KnicksBetter76ers

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

NYSmall

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

NYBig

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

PHISmall

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

NYSmall

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

Even

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

KnicksBetter76ers

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

PHIBig

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

NYBig

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

NYBig

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

NYBig

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

NYBig

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNY betterPHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NY107.0 #27

PHI108.7 #23

Points per possession

NY1.05 #24

PHI1.06 #22

Pace (possessions)

NY101.0 #28

PHI102.4 #19

Shooting

Effective FG%

NY49.5 #27

PHI50.8 #25

3-point %

NY35.2 #13

PHI34.0 #20

3-point attempt rate

NY43.2 #14

PHI39.5 #23

Free throw rate

NY24.5 #23

PHI28.7 #16

Possessions

Turnover rate

NY15.2 #14

PHI12.3 #1

Offensive rebound rate

NY30.3 #6

PHI19.9 #30

Assists per game

NY26.2 #18

PHI25.1 #22

Defense

Points allowed

NY107.7 #6

PHI104.9 #2

Points allowed per possession

NY1.07 #12

PHI1.03 #3

Opponent effective FG%

NY53.1 #14

PHI49.8 #4

Opponent 3-point %

NY35.5 #18

PHI32.1 #9

Turnovers forced

NY13.2 #29

PHI17.0 #9

Defensive rebound rate

NY78.7 #1

PHI70.8 #21

Steals per game

NY7.3 #23

PHI9.6 #7

Blocks per game

NY4.0 #28

PHI5.0 #14

NY		PHI
Scoring
107.0 #27	Points per game	108.7 #23
1.05 #24	Points per possession	1.06 #22
101.0 #28	Pace (possessions)	102.4 #19
Shooting
49.5 #27	Effective FG%	50.8 #25
35.2 #13	3-point %	34.0 #20
43.2 #14	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #23
24.5 #23	Free throw rate	28.7 #16
Possessions
15.2 #14	Turnover rate	12.3 #1
30.3 #6	Offensive rebound rate	19.9 #30
26.2 #18	Assists per game	25.1 #22
Defense
107.7 #6	Points allowed	104.9 #2
1.07 #12	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #3
53.1 #14	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #4
35.5 #18	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #9
13.2 #29	Turnovers forced	17.0 #9
78.7 #1	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #21
7.3 #23	Steals per game	9.6 #7
4.0 #28	Blocks per game	5.0 #14

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Knicks @ 76ers

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Knicks

76ers

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Knicks

76ers