Frost Bank Center · at Spurs
LineNo line yet
Total—
 ORL | This season | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | Record | 4-2 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 3-3 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects SA 119–107 · win probability SA 80%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 226.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: SA has more of the edges
ORL 1, SA 5 · 2026-27 so far
SABigTurnovers
Turnover rate: ORL 17.0%, SA 13.1%. Forced: ORL 13.6%, SA 15.7%
SABigRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ORL 23.4%, SA 27.2%. Defensive: ORL 68.9%, SA 75.8%
SABigORL offense vs SA defense
Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
ORL has played the 1st-hardest schedule, SA the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SABigSA offense vs ORL defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings
ORLSmallThree-pointers
ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%; SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%. Threes are 46.5% and 39.0% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: ORL plays 101.9 a game (22nd fastest), SA 104.3 (11th). Faster games mean more points
SASmallHome court
SA at home. This season: SA 2-2 at home, ORL 2-1 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0; SA 53.3 and allows 52.1
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: ORL 31.7, SA 24.5. Allowed: ORL 29.8, SA 21.7
Even
Recent form
Last 5: ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4; SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ORL 100%, SA 100%. Transfers in: ORL 0, SA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelSA -11.8
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model226.0
Model edge—
Projected score
ORL 107.1 · SA 118.9
Win probability
SA 80%
1st half
Spread
SA -6.5
Total
113.3
Projected score
ORL 53.4 · SA 59.9
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORLlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% | 3-3 50% |
| SAlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
ORL 5–5 SASeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · SA has won the last 2 meetings · ORL 4-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2025-26 | ORL 103 @ SA 112 | SA -4.5 | SA W |
| Dec 3, 2025-26 | SA 114 @ ORL 112 | ORL -8.5 | SA W |
| Apr 1, 2024-25 | ORL 116 @ SA 105 | SA +5.5 | ORL W |
| Feb 8, 2024-25 | SA 111 @ ORL 112 | ORL -2.5 | SA W |
| Feb 8, 2023-24 | SA 111 @ ORL 127 | ORL -10.5 | ORL W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Magic
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
ATL
ATLL 125-132
−9.5
23
vs
MIN
MINL 93-115
−23.5
25
@
NY
NYW 111-102
+15.5
28
@
TOR
TORL 99-129
−24.5
30
@TOR
TORW 121-114
+12.5
1
vs
BOS
BOSL 97-108
−4.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsATL
ATLL 125-132
+23.5
23
vsMIN
MINL 93-115
−26.5
25
@NY
NYW 111-102
−11.5
28
@TOR
TORL 99-129
+3.5
30
@TOR
TORW 121-114
+8.5
1
vsBOS
BOSL 97-108
−16.5
over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Spurs
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
OKC
OKCL 104-116
−10.5
23
vs
HOU
HOUL 110-114
−8.5
24
@
DAL
DALW 122-106
+1.5
27
vs
SAC
SACW 130-103
+7.5
28
@
UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−7.5
31
vsMIN
MINW 121-111
−2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsOKC
OKCL 104-116
−9.5
23
vsHOU
HOUL 110-114
−0.5
24
@DAL
DALW 122-106
−1.5
27
vsSAC
SACW 130-103
+0.5
28
@UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−4.5
31
vsMIN
MINW 121-111
+1.5
over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Spurs has the better starters
Position by position: Magic 0, Spurs 4, even 1
MagicBetterSpurs
G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 62
→SABig
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast
Score 98
G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast
Score 3
→SABig
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 53
F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast
Score 90
=Even
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast
Score 84
F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 35
→SASmall
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast
Score 69
C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 28
→SABig
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast
Score 98
MagicBetterSpurs
ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5
→SABig
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1
→SASmall
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players
→SABig
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players
→SASmall
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
Bench-1.8 · 5 players
→SABig
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestORL betterSA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
MagicGuards
D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min
Forwards
F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min
Centers
W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min
Out
J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut
SpursGuards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
ORL107.7 #26SA117.3 #12Points per possession
ORL1.07 #21SA1.12 #10Pace (possessions)
ORL101.9 #22SA104.3 #11Shooting
Effective FG%
ORL53.4 #15SA53.3 #163-point %
ORL35.4 #11SA34.9 #173-point attempt rate
ORL46.5 #6SA39.0 #24Free throw rate
ORL31.7 #9SA24.5 #24Possessions
Turnover rate
ORL17.0 #24SA13.1 #2Offensive rebound rate
ORL23.4 #26SA27.2 #16Assists per game
ORL26.3 #16SA27.5 #9Defense
Points allowed
ORL116.7 #22SA110.2 #12Points allowed per possession
ORL1.13 #24SA1.06 #6Opponent effective FG%
ORL53.0 #13SA52.1 #11Opponent 3-point %
ORL34.6 #13SA37.3 #23Turnovers forced
ORL13.6 #26SA15.7 #14Defensive rebound rate
ORL68.9 #26SA75.8 #7Steals per game
ORL7.0 #26SA9.2 #10Blocks per game
ORL4.2 #23SA7.0 #1| ORL | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 107.7 #26 | Points per game | 117.3 #12 |
| 1.07 #21 | Points per possession | 1.12 #10 |
| 101.9 #22 | Pace (possessions) | 104.3 #11 |
| Shooting | ||
| 53.4 #15 | Effective FG% | 53.3 #16 |
| 35.4 #11 | 3-point % | 34.9 #17 |
| 46.5 #6 | 3-point attempt rate | 39.0 #24 |
| 31.7 #9 | Free throw rate | 24.5 #24 |
| Possessions | ||
| 17.0 #24 | Turnover rate | 13.1 #2 |
| 23.4 #26 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.2 #16 |
| 26.3 #16 | Assists per game | 27.5 #9 |
| Defense | ||
| 116.7 #22 | Points allowed | 110.2 #12 |
| 1.13 #24 | Points allowed per possession | 1.06 #6 |
| 53.0 #13 | Opponent effective FG% | 52.1 #11 |
| 34.6 #13 | Opponent 3-point % | 37.3 #23 |
| 13.6 #26 | Turnovers forced | 15.7 #14 |
| 68.9 #26 | Defensive rebound rate | 75.8 #7 |
| 7.0 #26 | Steals per game | 9.2 #10 |
| 4.2 #23 | Blocks per game | 7.0 #1 |
Magic
2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Celtics97–108
- W@ Raptors121–114
- L@ Raptors99–129
- W@ Knicks111–102
- Lvs Timberwolves93–115
A week or more of rest.
Spurs
4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Timberwolves121–111
- W@ Jazz117–111
- Wvs Kings130–103
- W@ Mavericks122–106
- Lvs Rockets110–114
A week or more of rest.