Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Feb 6, 7:30 PM ETRocket Arena · at Cavaliers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Magic and Cavaliers
ORL	This season	CLE
2-4	Record	4-2
2-4	ATS	2-4
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 119–112 · win probability CLE 70%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

ORL 0, CLE 6 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

ORL has played the 1st-hardest schedule, CLE the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CLEBig

CLE offense vs ORL defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

CLEBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ORL 23.4%, CLE 26.7%. Defensive: ORL 68.9%, CLE 73.9%

CLEBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ORL 17.0%, CLE 14.2%. Forced: ORL 13.6%, CLE 14.1%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: ORL plays 101.9 a game (22nd fastest), CLE 106.2 (3rd). Faster games mean more points

CLESmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: ORL 31.7, CLE 28.9. Allowed: ORL 29.8, CLE 23.2

CLESmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0; CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5

CLESmall

Home court

CLE at home. This season: CLE 3-0 at home, ORL 2-1 away

Even

Three-pointers

ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%; CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 46.5% and 43.6% of their shots

Even

ORL offense vs CLE defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4; CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ORL 100%, CLE 100%. Transfers in: ORL 0, CLE 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	2-1	—
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—

Venue/role: ORL away; CLE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 8	@ MIL	W130–91WO
Feb 10	@ MEM	L109–126LO
Feb 12	vs MIA	W121–117WO

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 9	vs TOR	W114–102WO
Feb 10	@ IND	W117–108LU
Feb 12	@ TOR	W114–102WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 25 since 2021-22

ORL 8–17 CLECLE leads · 25 games since 2021-22 · ORL 11-12-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 24, 2025-26	ORL 131 @ CLE 136	CLE -10.5	ORL W
Mar 11, 2025-26	CLE 122 @ ORL 128	ORL +3.5	ORL W
Jan 26, 2025-26	ORL 98 @ CLE 114	CLE -4.5	CLE W
Jan 24, 2025-26	CLE 119 @ ORL 105	ORL -1.5	CLE W
Mar 16, 2024-25	ORL 108 @ CLE 103	CLE -10.5	ORL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Magic 0, Cavaliers 2, even 3

MagicBetterCavaliers

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

Even

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

CLEBig

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

Even

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

Even

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

CLEBig

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

MagicBetterCavaliers

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Even

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

CLEBig

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

CLEBig

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

CLEBig

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

CLEBig

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestORL betterCLE betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ORL107.7 #26

CLE121.0 #2

Points per possession

ORL1.07 #21

CLE1.14 #7

Pace (possessions)

ORL101.9 #22

CLE106.2 #3

Shooting

Effective FG%

ORL53.4 #15

CLE55.3 #7

3-point %

ORL35.4 #11

CLE37.0 #8

3-point attempt rate

ORL46.5 #6

CLE43.6 #12

Free throw rate

ORL31.7 #9

CLE28.9 #13

Possessions

Turnover rate

ORL17.0 #24

CLE14.2 #6

Offensive rebound rate

ORL23.4 #26

CLE26.7 #20

Assists per game

ORL26.3 #16

CLE28.7 #4

Defense

Points allowed

ORL116.7 #22

CLE116.0 #20

Points allowed per possession

ORL1.13 #24

CLE1.09 #14

Opponent effective FG%

ORL53.0 #13

CLE52.5 #12

Opponent 3-point %

ORL34.6 #13

CLE33.7 #11

Turnovers forced

ORL13.6 #26

CLE14.1 #25

Defensive rebound rate

ORL68.9 #26

CLE73.9 #11

Steals per game

ORL7.0 #26

CLE7.8 #22

Blocks per game

ORL4.2 #23

CLE6.3 #6

ORL		CLE
Scoring
107.7 #26	Points per game	121.0 #2
1.07 #21	Points per possession	1.14 #7
101.9 #22	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #3
Shooting
53.4 #15	Effective FG%	55.3 #7
35.4 #11	3-point %	37.0 #8
46.5 #6	3-point attempt rate	43.6 #12
31.7 #9	Free throw rate	28.9 #13
Possessions
17.0 #24	Turnover rate	14.2 #6
23.4 #26	Offensive rebound rate	26.7 #20
26.3 #16	Assists per game	28.7 #4
Defense
116.7 #22	Points allowed	116.0 #20
1.13 #24	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #14
53.0 #13	Opponent effective FG%	52.5 #12
34.6 #13	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #11
13.6 #26	Turnovers forced	14.1 #25
68.9 #26	Defensive rebound rate	73.9 #11
7.0 #26	Steals per game	7.8 #22
4.2 #23	Blocks per game	6.3 #6

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Magic @ Cavaliers

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Magic

Cavaliers

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Magic

Cavaliers