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NBA · Mon, Feb 8

Magic @ Bucks

Fiserv Forum · at Bucks · Conference game
#19ORLMagic
@
#29MILBucks
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ORLThis seasonMIL
2-4Record1-5
2-4ATS2-4
3-3O/U5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORL 118–113 · win probability ORL 64%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 230.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 224-242 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ORL has more of the edges

ORL 5, MIL 2 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
ORL has played the 1st-hardest schedule, MIL the 23rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
MILBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ORL 23.4%, MIL 29.7%. Defensive: ORL 68.9%, MIL 74.2%
ORLBig
MIL offense vs ORL defense
Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: ORL plays 101.9 a game (22nd fastest), MIL 106.2 (4th). Faster games mean more points
ORLSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0; MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4
ORLSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: ORL 31.7, MIL 23.9. Allowed: ORL 29.8, MIL 29.7
ORLSmall
ORL offense vs MIL defense
Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings
ORLSmall
Three-pointers
ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%; MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 46.5% and 45.9% of their shots
MILSmall
Home court
MIL at home. This season: MIL 1-3 at home, ORL 2-1 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ORL 17.0%, MIL 15.8%. Forced: ORL 13.6%, MIL 12.2%
Even
Recent form
Last 5: ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4; MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ORL 100%, MIL 100%. Transfers in: ORL 0, MIL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelORL -5.2
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model230.1
Model edge—
Projected score
ORL 117.6 · MIL 112.5
Win probability
ORL 64%
1st half
Spread
ORL -3.0
Total
115.2
Projected score
ORL 59.1 · MIL 56.1
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Magic has the better starters

Position by position: Magic 2, Bucks 1, even 2
MagicBetterBucks
G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62
ORLBig
G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6
G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3
Even
G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2
F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90
ORLBig
F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51
F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35
Even
F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31
C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28
MILSmall
C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56
MagicBetterBucks
ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5
ORLSmall
MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0
ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1
ORLBig
MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9
Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players
ORLBig
Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players
Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players
ORLBig
Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players
Bench-1.8 · 5 players
MILSmall
Bench-0.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestORL betterMIL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Magic
Guards
D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min
Forwards
F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min
Centers
W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min
Out
J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut
Bucks
Guards
T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min
Forwards
J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min
Centers
M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
ORLMIL
Scoring
107.7Points per game113.0
1.07Points per possession1.07
101.9Pace (possessions)106.2
Shooting
53.4Effective FG%52.0
35.43-point %33.9
46.53-point attempt rate45.9
31.7Free throw rate23.9
Possessions
17.0Turnover rate15.8
23.4Offensive rebound rate29.7
26.3Assists per game26.0
Defense
116.7Points allowed126.2
1.13Points allowed per possession1.18
53.0Opponent effective FG%55.4
34.6Opponent 3-point %34.9
13.6Turnovers forced12.2
68.9Defensive rebound rate74.2
7.0Steals per game5.7
4.2Blocks per game4.0
ORLMIL
Scoring
107.7 #26Points per game113.0 #17
1.07 #21Points per possession1.07 #20
101.9 #22Pace (possessions)106.2 #4
Shooting
53.4 #15Effective FG%52.0 #21
35.4 #113-point %33.9 #21
46.5 #63-point attempt rate45.9 #8
31.7 #9Free throw rate23.9 #25
Possessions
17.0 #24Turnover rate15.8 #18
23.4 #26Offensive rebound rate29.7 #8
26.3 #16Assists per game26.0 #20
Defense
116.7 #22Points allowed126.2 #28
1.13 #24Points allowed per possession1.18 #28
53.0 #13Opponent effective FG%55.4 #24
34.6 #13Opponent 3-point %34.9 #14
13.6 #26Turnovers forced12.2 #30
68.9 #26Defensive rebound rate74.2 #10
7.0 #26Steals per game5.7 #30
4.2 #23Blocks per game4.0 #27
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Lvs Celtics97–108
  • W@ Raptors121–114
  • L@ Raptors99–129
  • W@ Knicks111–102
  • Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Lvs Cavaliers111–136
  • Lvs Rockets100–132
  • Wvs Pacers110–102
  • L@ 76ers116–127
  • Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.