Washington Wizards at Brooklyn Nets: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Feb 6, 6:00 PM ETBarclays Center · at Nets · Conference game

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wizards and Nets
WSH	This season	BKN
3-3	Record	1-5
3-3	ATS	3-3
1-5	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WSH 114–112 · win probability WSH 55%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

WSH 3, BKN 2 · 2026-27 so far

BKNBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WSH 20.9%, BKN 25.4%. Defensive: WSH 68.0%, BKN 77.8%

WSHBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1; BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: WSH 34.2, BKN 32.9. Allowed: WSH 21.8, BKN 33.5

Context

Schedule so far

WSH has played the 26th-hardest schedule, BKN the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less

WSHSmall

BKN offense vs WSH defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: WSH plays 102.3 a game (20th fastest), BKN 105.1 (10th). Faster games mean more points

BKNSmall

Home court

BKN at home. This season: BKN 0-3 at home, WSH 1-2 away

Even

WSH offense vs BKN defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4; BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0

Even

Three-pointers

WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%; BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 37.6% and 48.0% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WSH 14.6%, BKN 18.2%. Forced: WSH 13.3%, BKN 15.9%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WSH 100%, BKN 100%. Transfers in: WSH 0, BKN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	—
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	0-3	—

Venue/role: WSH away; BKN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 8	vs CHI	W124–120WU
Feb 10	vs MIA	L117–140LO
Feb 12	vs BKN	L115–121LO

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 8	@ PHI	L97–104WU
Feb 9	vs MIN	W123–107WO
Feb 12	@ WSH	W121–115WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

WSH 6–13 BKNBKN leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · BKN has won the last 2 meetings · WSH 6-12-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 5, 2025-26	WSH 115 @ BKN 121	BKN -3.5	BKN W
Feb 7, 2025-26	WSH 113 @ BKN 127	BKN -8.5	BKN W
Jan 2, 2025-26	BKN 99 @ WSH 119	WSH -2.5	WSH W
Nov 16, 2025-26	BKN 129 @ WSH 106	WSH -2.5	BKN W
Mar 29, 2024-25	BKN 115 @ WSH 112	WSH -2.5	BKN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Wizards 1, Nets 1, even 3

WizardsBetterNets

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

Even

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

Even

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

WSHBig

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

BKNBig

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

No call

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

WizardsBetterNets

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Even

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

WSHSmall

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

WSHBig

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

WSHBig

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWSH betterBKN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WSH110.5 #20

BKN108.2 #25

Points per possession

WSH1.08 #19

BKN1.03 #29

Pace (possessions)

WSH102.3 #20

BKN105.1 #10

Shooting

Effective FG%

WSH52.1 #20

BKN50.7 #26

3-point %

WSH29.3 #29

BKN35.1 #15

3-point attempt rate

WSH37.6 #28

BKN48.0 #3

Free throw rate

WSH34.2 #5

BKN32.9 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

WSH14.6 #8

BKN18.2 #27

Offensive rebound rate

WSH20.9 #29

BKN25.4 #23

Assists per game

WSH24.5 #24

BKN22.8 #28

Defense

Points allowed

WSH109.7 #11

BKN116.0 #21

Points allowed per possession

WSH1.07 #11

BKN1.11 #18

Opponent effective FG%

WSH48.1 #1

BKN55.3 #23

Opponent 3-point %

WSH28.7 #1

BKN35.8 #19

Turnovers forced

WSH13.3 #27

BKN15.9 #12

Defensive rebound rate

WSH68.0 #28

BKN77.8 #2

Steals per game

WSH7.2 #24

BKN9.0 #14

Blocks per game

WSH5.3 #9

BKN4.7 #17

WSH		BKN
Scoring
110.5 #20	Points per game	108.2 #25
1.08 #19	Points per possession	1.03 #29
102.3 #20	Pace (possessions)	105.1 #10
Shooting
52.1 #20	Effective FG%	50.7 #26
29.3 #29	3-point %	35.1 #15
37.6 #28	3-point attempt rate	48.0 #3
34.2 #5	Free throw rate	32.9 #6
Possessions
14.6 #8	Turnover rate	18.2 #27
20.9 #29	Offensive rebound rate	25.4 #23
24.5 #24	Assists per game	22.8 #28
Defense
109.7 #11	Points allowed	116.0 #21
1.07 #11	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #18
48.1 #1	Opponent effective FG%	55.3 #23
28.7 #1	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #19
13.3 #27	Turnovers forced	15.9 #12
68.0 #28	Defensive rebound rate	77.8 #2
7.2 #24	Steals per game	9.0 #14
5.3 #9	Blocks per game	4.7 #17

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Wizards @ Nets

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Wizards

Nets

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wizards

Nets