Oklahoma City Thunder at Chicago Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Feb 4, 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · at Bulls

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Thunder and Bulls
OKC	This season	CHI
4-2	Record	1-5
3-3	ATS	3-3
1-5	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 121–111 · win probability OKC 76%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 211-223 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

OKC 5, CHI 1 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: OKC plays 101.1 a game (27th fastest), CHI 109.8 (1st). Faster games mean more points

OKCBig

OKC offense vs CHI defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

OKCBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0; CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0

OKCBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OKC 14.5%, CHI 16.2%. Forced: OKC 15.8%, CHI 14.7%

OKCBig

CHI offense vs OKC defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

OKC has played the 5th-hardest schedule, CHI the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less

OKCSmall

Three-pointers

OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%; CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%. Threes are 35.8% and 47.9% of their shots

CHISmall

Home court

CHI at home. This season: CHI 0-2 at home, OKC 1-2 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: OKC 21.8, CHI 38.3. Allowed: OKC 23.4, CHI 33.5

Even

Recent form

Last 5: OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OKC 28.5%, CHI 29.2%. Defensive: OKC 71.4%, CHI 69.8%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OKC 100%, CHI 100%. Transfers in: OKC 0, CHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: OKC away; CHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 5	vs IND	L114–117LO
Feb 7	vs NY	W111–100WU
Feb 9	vs POR	W124–95WU

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 6	vs NO	W134–118WO
Feb 8	@ WSH	L120–124LU
Feb 9	vs GS	W130–124WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

OKC 8–2 CHIOKC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 8 meetings · OKC 8-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 27, 2025-26	CHI 113 @ OKC 131	OKC -18.5	CHI W
Mar 3, 2025-26	OKC 116 @ CHI 108	CHI +9.5	CHI W
Mar 31, 2024-25	CHI 117 @ OKC 145	OKC -15.5	OKC W
Oct 26, 2024-25	OKC 114 @ CHI 95	CHI +9.5	OKC W
Nov 22, 2023-24	CHI 102 @ OKC 116	OKC -6.5	OKC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Thunder 4, Bulls 0, even 1

ThunderBetterBulls

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

OKCSmall

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

OKCBig

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

Even

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

OKCBig

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

OKCBig

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

ThunderBetterBulls

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

OKCBig

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

OKCSmall

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

OKCBig

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

OKCSmall

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestOKC betterCHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OKC106.5 #29

CHI113.5 #16

Points per possession

OKC1.05 #23

CHI1.04 #26

Pace (possessions)

OKC101.1 #27

CHI109.8 #1

Shooting

Effective FG%

OKC49.5 #28

CHI48.2 #30

3-point %

OKC30.9 #26

CHI28.1 #30

3-point attempt rate

OKC35.8 #29

CHI47.9 #4

Free throw rate

OKC21.8 #28

CHI38.3 #1

Possessions

Turnover rate

OKC14.5 #7

CHI16.2 #20

Offensive rebound rate

OKC28.5 #10

CHI29.2 #9

Assists per game

OKC21.7 #29

CHI24.3 #25

Defense

Points allowed

OKC107.0 #5

CHI129.3 #30

Points allowed per possession

OKC1.06 #7

CHI1.17 #27

Opponent effective FG%

OKC51.0 #6

CHI56.0 #26

Opponent 3-point %

OKC35.3 #17

CHI39.3 #28

Turnovers forced

OKC15.8 #13

CHI14.7 #21

Defensive rebound rate

OKC71.4 #18

CHI69.8 #24

Steals per game

OKC8.3 #20

CHI8.7 #17

Blocks per game

OKC6.3 #7

CHI5.0 #12

OKC		CHI
Scoring
106.5 #29	Points per game	113.5 #16
1.05 #23	Points per possession	1.04 #26
101.1 #27	Pace (possessions)	109.8 #1
Shooting
49.5 #28	Effective FG%	48.2 #30
30.9 #26	3-point %	28.1 #30
35.8 #29	3-point attempt rate	47.9 #4
21.8 #28	Free throw rate	38.3 #1
Possessions
14.5 #7	Turnover rate	16.2 #20
28.5 #10	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #9
21.7 #29	Assists per game	24.3 #25
Defense
107.0 #5	Points allowed	129.3 #30
1.06 #7	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #27
51.0 #6	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #26
35.3 #17	Opponent 3-point %	39.3 #28
15.8 #13	Turnovers forced	14.7 #21
71.4 #18	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #24
8.3 #20	Steals per game	8.7 #17
6.3 #7	Blocks per game	5.0 #12

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Thunder @ Bulls

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Thunder

Bulls

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Thunder

Bulls