New Orleans Pelicans at Chicago Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Feb 6, 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · at Bulls

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pelicans and Bulls
NO	This season	CHI
2-4	Record	1-5
4-2	ATS	3-3
4-2	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NO 124–119 · win probability NO 63%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 242.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 224-242 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

NO 3, CHI 2 · 2026-27 so far

NOBig

NO offense vs CHI defense

Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

NOBig

Three-pointers

NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%; CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%. Threes are 32.8% and 47.9% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

NO has played the 28th-hardest schedule, CHI the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NOBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: NO 55.1 and allows 54.2; CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0

CHIBig

CHI offense vs NO defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

CHISmall

Home court

CHI at home. This season: CHI 0-2 at home, NO 0-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8; CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NO 35.3, CHI 38.3. Allowed: NO 30.6, CHI 33.5

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NO 17.4%, CHI 16.2%. Forced: NO 16.3%, CHI 14.7%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NO 24.3%, CHI 29.2%. Defensive: NO 76.4%, CHI 69.8%

Context

Tempo

About 109 possessions: NO plays 108.0 a game (2nd fastest), CHI 109.8 (1st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NO 100%, CHI 100%. Transfers in: NO 0, CHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-0	—
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: NO away; CHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO OOUOU	4-2	67%	2-4
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NOlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pelicans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 8	@ IND	L120–123LO
Feb 10	@ ATL	W121–99WU
Feb 12	vs HOU	L102–134LO

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 8	@ WSH	L120–124LU
Feb 9	vs GS	W130–124WO
Feb 11	@ DEN	L120–136LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

NO 7–4 CHINO leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · NO 7-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 31, 2025-26	NO 118 @ CHI 134	CHI -1.5	CHI W
Dec 14, 2025-26	NO 114 @ CHI 104	CHI -4.5	NO W
Nov 24, 2025-26	CHI 130 @ NO 143	NO +4.5	NO W
Jan 14, 2024-25	NO 119 @ CHI 113	CHI -1.5	NO W
Oct 23, 2024-25	CHI 111 @ NO 123	NO -5.5	NO W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pelicans

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsIND	L 120-123	+2.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	@UTAH	L 119-120	+1.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 24	@DEN	L 135-141	+11.5	W +5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 28	vsDEN	L 91-104	+4.5	L −8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 29	vsSAC	W 132-120	-6.5	W +5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	vsATL	W 121-99	+5.5	W +27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IND

L 120-123

−0.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+5.5

DEN

L 91-104

−8.5

SAC

W 132-120

+5.5

ATL

W 121-99

+27.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IND

L 120-123

+4.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+36.5

DEN

L 91-104

−46.5

SAC

W 132-120

+17.5

ATL

W 121-99

−19.5

over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pelicans has the better starters

Position by position: Pelicans 4, Bulls 1, even 0

PelicansBetterBulls

G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19

CHIBig

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81

NOBig

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

F T. Murphy14.3 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 60

NOBig

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75

NOBig

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52

NOSmall

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

PelicansBetterBulls

NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1

NOBig

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7

CHIBig

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Backcourt-3.3 · 1 player

CHIBig

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+19.9 · 4 players

NOBig

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

Bench-16.0 · 5 players

CHIBig

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNO betterCHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pelicans

Guards

J. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min

Forwards

Z. Williamson32 minT. Murphy32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min

Centers

D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min

Out

D. MurrayDay-To-DayJ. PooleOutY. MissiOut

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

CHI

Scoring

119.7Points per game113.5

1.10Points per possession1.04

108.0Pace (possessions)109.8

Shooting

55.1Effective FG%48.2

31.23-point %28.1

32.83-point attempt rate47.9

35.3Free throw rate38.3

Possessions

17.4Turnover rate16.2

24.3Offensive rebound rate29.2

25.5Assists per game24.3

Defense

117.8Points allowed129.3

1.09Points allowed per possession1.17

54.2Opponent effective FG%56.0

30.5Opponent 3-point %39.3

16.3Turnovers forced14.7

76.4Defensive rebound rate69.8

13.7Steals per game8.7

4.8Blocks per game5.0

NO		CHI
Scoring
119.7 #7	Points per game	113.5 #16
1.10 #15	Points per possession	1.04 #26
108.0 #2	Pace (possessions)	109.8 #1
Shooting
55.1 #9	Effective FG%	48.2 #30
31.2 #25	3-point %	28.1 #30
32.8 #30	3-point attempt rate	47.9 #4
35.3 #4	Free throw rate	38.3 #1
Possessions
17.4 #26	Turnover rate	16.2 #20
24.3 #25	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #9
25.5 #21	Assists per game	24.3 #25
Defense
117.8 #24	Points allowed	129.3 #30
1.09 #16	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #27
54.2 #21	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #26
30.5 #5	Opponent 3-point %	39.3 #28
16.3 #10	Turnovers forced	14.7 #21
76.4 #6	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #24
13.7 #1	Steals per game	8.7 #17
4.8 #16	Blocks per game	5.0 #12

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hawks121–99
Wvs Kings132–120
Lvs Nuggets91–104
L@ Nuggets135–141
L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Pelicans @ Bulls

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pelicans

Bulls

Pelicans has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pelicans

Bulls