Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Feb 4, 7:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden · at Knicks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Raptors and Knicks
TOR	This season	NY
3-3	Record	2-4
3-3	ATS	1-5
3-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 112–108 · win probability NY 60%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 219.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

TOR 2, NY 5 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOR 13.5%, NY 15.2%. Forced: TOR 20.8%, NY 13.2%

TORBig

NY offense vs TOR defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

NYBig

TOR offense vs NY defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: TOR plays 105.5 a game (8th fastest), NY 101.0 (28th). Faster games mean more points

NYSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOR 27.7, NY 24.5. Allowed: TOR 41.5, NY 25.9

Context

Schedule so far

TOR has played the 21st-hardest schedule, NY the 13th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NYSmall

Three-pointers

TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%; NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 38.1% and 43.2% of their shots

NYSmall

Home court

NY at home. This season: NY 1-2 at home, TOR 1-2 away

NYSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOR 32.6%, NY 30.3%. Defensive: TOR 73.4%, NY 78.7%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8; NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4; NY 49.5 and allows 53.1

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOR 100%, NY 100%. Transfers in: TOR 0, NY 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	1-2	—

Venue/role: TOR away; NY home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 6	vs MIL	W122–94WU
Feb 7	vs CHA	W97–96LU
Feb 9	@ CLE	L102–114LO

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 7	@ OKC	L100–111LU
Feb 9	vs CHA	L96–110WU
Feb 11	@ PHI	L93–98LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22

TOR 6–15 NYNY leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · NY has won the last 13 meetings · TOR 7-14 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 10, 2025-26	TOR 95 @ NY 112	NY -6.5	NY W
Mar 3, 2025-26	NY 111 @ TOR 95	TOR +2.5	NY W
Jan 28, 2025-26	NY 119 @ TOR 92	TOR -1.5	NY W
Dec 9, 2025-26	NY 117 @ TOR 101	TOR +6.5	NY W
Nov 30, 2025-26	TOR 94 @ NY 116	NY -8.5	NY W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Raptors 1, Knicks 3, even 1

RaptorsBetterKnicks

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

NYBig

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

NYSmall

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

Even

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

TORSmall

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

NYSmall

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

RaptorsBetterKnicks

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

NYBig

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

TORBig

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

NYBig

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

TORSmall

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

NYSmall

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTOR betterNY betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOR118.2 #10

NY107.0 #27

Points per possession

TOR1.11 #13

NY1.05 #24

Pace (possessions)

TOR105.5 #8

NY101.0 #28

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOR51.0 #22

NY49.5 #27

3-point %

TOR32.0 #24

NY35.2 #13

3-point attempt rate

TOR38.1 #25

NY43.2 #14

Free throw rate

TOR27.7 #18

NY24.5 #23

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOR13.5 #3

NY15.2 #14

Offensive rebound rate

TOR32.6 #2

NY30.3 #6

Assists per game

TOR29.2 #2

NY26.2 #18

Defense

Points allowed

TOR110.3 #13

NY107.7 #6

Points allowed per possession

TOR1.05 #5

NY1.07 #12

Opponent effective FG%

TOR53.4 #16

NY53.1 #14

Opponent 3-point %

TOR36.7 #21

NY35.5 #18

Turnovers forced

TOR20.8 #1

NY13.2 #29

Defensive rebound rate

TOR73.4 #13

NY78.7 #1

Steals per game

TOR12.7 #2

NY7.3 #23

Blocks per game

TOR4.3 #19

NY4.0 #28

TOR		NY
Scoring
118.2 #10	Points per game	107.0 #27
1.11 #13	Points per possession	1.05 #24
105.5 #8	Pace (possessions)	101.0 #28
Shooting
51.0 #22	Effective FG%	49.5 #27
32.0 #24	3-point %	35.2 #13
38.1 #25	3-point attempt rate	43.2 #14
27.7 #18	Free throw rate	24.5 #23
Possessions
13.5 #3	Turnover rate	15.2 #14
32.6 #2	Offensive rebound rate	30.3 #6
29.2 #2	Assists per game	26.2 #18
Defense
110.3 #13	Points allowed	107.7 #6
1.05 #5	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #12
53.4 #16	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #14
36.7 #21	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #18
20.8 #1	Turnovers forced	13.2 #29
73.4 #13	Defensive rebound rate	78.7 #1
12.7 #2	Steals per game	7.3 #23
4.3 #19	Blocks per game	4.0 #28

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Raptors @ Knicks

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Raptors

Knicks

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Raptors

Knicks