Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Feb 4, 7:30 PM ETKaseya Center · at Heat · Conference game

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bucks and Heat
MIL	This season	MIA
1-5	Record	2-4
2-4	ATS	2-4
5-1	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIA 124–114 · win probability MIA 77%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 238.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

MIL 2, MIA 4 · 2026-27 so far

MIABig

MIA offense vs MIL defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

MIABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, MIA 14.1%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, MIA 15.4%

Context

Schedule so far

MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, MIA the 11th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MILBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, MIA 24.5%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, MIA 72.3%

MIABig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, MIA 27.3. Allowed: MIL 29.7, MIA 23.2

MILSmall

Three-pointers

MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%. Threes are 45.9% and 41.7% of their shots

MIASmall

Home court

MIA at home. This season: MIA 1-3 at home, MIL 0-2 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), MIA 106.2 (5th). Faster games mean more points

Even

MIL offense vs MIA defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, MIA 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, MIA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: MIL away; MIA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 6	@ TOR	L94–122LU
Feb 8	vs ORL	L91–130LO
Feb 9	vs SAC	W115–98WU

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 6	@ MIN	L106–131LU
Feb 8	@ ATL	W129–117WO
Feb 10	@ WSH	W140–117WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 23 since 2021-22

MIL 12–11 MIAMIL leads · 23 games since 2021-22 · MIL 12-10-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 12, 2025-26	MIL 105 @ MIA 112	MIA -5.5	MIA W
Feb 24, 2025-26	MIA 117 @ MIL 128	MIL +6.5	MIL W
Nov 26, 2025-26	MIL 103 @ MIA 106	MIA -10.5	MIL W
Apr 5, 2024-25	MIL 121 @ MIA 115	MIA -0.5	MIL W
Feb 23, 2024-25	MIA 113 @ MIL 120	MIL -3.5	MIL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Heat has the better starters

Position by position: Bucks 0, Heat 4, even 1

BucksBetterHeat

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

MIABig

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

MIASmall

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

MIABig

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

MIASmall

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

Even

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

BucksBetterHeat

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

Even

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

MIABig

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

MIABig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

MIABig

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

MILSmall

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIL betterMIA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIL113.0 #17

MIA118.3 #9

Points per possession

MIL1.07 #20

MIA1.11 #14

Pace (possessions)

MIL106.2 #4

MIA106.2 #5

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIL52.0 #21

MIA54.6 #12

3-point %

MIL33.9 #21

MIA34.1 #19

3-point attempt rate

MIL45.9 #8

MIA41.7 #20

Free throw rate

MIL23.9 #25

MIA27.3 #19

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIL15.8 #18

MIA14.1 #5

Offensive rebound rate

MIL29.7 #8

MIA24.5 #24

Assists per game

MIL26.0 #20

MIA28.8 #3

Defense

Points allowed

MIL126.2 #28

MIA121.5 #26

Points allowed per possession

MIL1.18 #28

MIA1.15 #26

Opponent effective FG%

MIL55.4 #24

MIA56.8 #27

Opponent 3-point %

MIL34.9 #14

MIA40.6 #29

Turnovers forced

MIL12.2 #30

MIA15.4 #18

Defensive rebound rate

MIL74.2 #10

MIA72.3 #17

Steals per game

MIL5.7 #30

MIA8.3 #19

Blocks per game

MIL4.0 #27

MIA5.0 #13

MIL		MIA
Scoring
113.0 #17	Points per game	118.3 #9
1.07 #20	Points per possession	1.11 #14
106.2 #4	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #5
Shooting
52.0 #21	Effective FG%	54.6 #12
33.9 #21	3-point %	34.1 #19
45.9 #8	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #20
23.9 #25	Free throw rate	27.3 #19
Possessions
15.8 #18	Turnover rate	14.1 #5
29.7 #8	Offensive rebound rate	24.5 #24
26.0 #20	Assists per game	28.8 #3
Defense
126.2 #28	Points allowed	121.5 #26
1.18 #28	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #26
55.4 #24	Opponent effective FG%	56.8 #27
34.9 #14	Opponent 3-point %	40.6 #29
12.2 #30	Turnovers forced	15.4 #18
74.2 #10	Defensive rebound rate	72.3 #17
5.7 #30	Steals per game	8.3 #19
4.0 #27	Blocks per game	5.0 #13

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Bucks @ Heat

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bucks

Heat

Heat has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bucks

Heat