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NBA · Sat, Feb 6

Heat @ Timberwolves

Target Center · at Timberwolves
#18MIAHeat
@
#4MINTimberwolves
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MIAThis seasonMIN
2-5Record5-3
2-5ATS7-1
4-3O/U4-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 123–112 · win probability MIN 79%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 235.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 219-233 in 2025-26. Model numbers

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

MIA 2, MIN 6 · 2026-27 so far
MINBig
MIN offense vs MIA defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings
MINBig
Three-pointers
MIA hits 34.8% and allows 41.2%; MIN hits 37.4% and allows 31.1%. Threes are 43.3% and 43.3% of their shots
MINBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MIA 23.8%, MIN 31.1%. Defensive: MIA 72.4%, MIN 74.3%
MINBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MIA 55.5 and allows 58.3; MIN 55.1 and allows 49.9
Context
Schedule so far
MIA has played the 9th-hardest schedule, MIN the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MINSmall
Recent form
Last 5: MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +0.4; MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +4.2
MIASmall
MIA offense vs MIN defense
Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
MIASmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MIA 29.6, MIN 26.2. Allowed: MIA 23.8, MIN 26.6
MINSmall
Home court
MIN at home. This season: MIN 3-1 at home, MIA 1-2 away
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: MIA plays 105.8 a game (3rd fastest), MIN 104.8 (9th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MIA 14.7%, MIN 14.6%. Forced: MIA 15.4%, MIN 15.7%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MIA 100%, MIN 100%. Transfers in: MIA 0, MIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelMIN -11.1
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model235.7
Model edge—
Projected score
MIA 112.3 · MIN 123.4
Win probability
MIN 79%
1st half
Spread
MIN -6.1
Total
117.8
Projected score
MIA 55.8 · MIN 61.9
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model numbers › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Heat 0, Timberwolves 3, even 2
HeatBetterTimberwolves
G D. Mitchell16 pts · 1.4 reb · 8 ast Score 43
Even
G A. Dosunmu15.8 pts · 5.9 reb · 4 ast Score 40
G K. Thompson11.9 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20
MINBig
G L. Ball16.9 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.9 ast Score 92
F G. Antetokounmpo28.4 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.7 ast Score 88
Even
F J. McDaniels16.8 pts · 6 reb · 3.6 ast Score 96
F A. Wiggins10.3 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 62
MINSmall
F J. Kuminga12.3 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90
C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 8 reb · 3.4 ast Score 63
MINBig
C R. Gobert7.4 pts · 12 reb · 1.4 ast Score 98
HeatBetterTimberwolves
MIA offense1st of 30 · +5.0
MIASmall
MIN defense7th of 30 · +3.9
MIA defense29th of 30 · -6.4
MINBig
MIN offense5th of 30 · +2.9
Backcourt-1.3 · 2 players
MINBig
Backcourt+12.9 · 2 players
Frontcourt+20.4 · 3 players
MINBig
Frontcourt+45.6 · 3 players
Bench-2.5 · 5 players
MINBig
Bench+3.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMIA betterMIN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Heat
Guards
D. Mitchell33 minK. Thompson22 minP. Larsson30 minT. Hardaway18 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell5 min
Forwards
G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis22 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic12 minM. Gardner9 min
Centers
B. Adebayo31 minN. Richards15 min
Timberwolves
Guards
A. Dosunmu30 minL. Ball26 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark11 minZ. Pullin8 min
Forwards
J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga31 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer18 minT. Lyles17 minI. Evans3 min
Centers
R. Gobert30 minR. Zikarsky7 min
Out
T. ShannonDay-To-DayA. EdwardsOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
MIAMIN
Scoring
118.1Points per game119.0
1.12Points per possession1.13
105.8Pace (possessions)104.8
Shooting
55.5Effective FG%55.1
34.83-point %37.4
43.33-point attempt rate43.3
29.6Free throw rate26.2
Possessions
14.7Turnover rate14.6
23.8Offensive rebound rate31.1
28.7Assists per game26.8
Defense
123.9Points allowed107.6
1.17Points allowed per possession1.03
58.3Opponent effective FG%49.9
41.2Opponent 3-point %31.1
15.4Turnovers forced15.7
72.4Defensive rebound rate74.3
8.1Steals per game8.8
5.0Blocks per game4.9
MIAMIN
Scoring
118.1 #9Points per game119.0 #8
1.12 #14Points per possession1.13 #7
105.8 #3Pace (possessions)104.8 #9
Shooting
55.5 #6Effective FG%55.1 #9
34.8 #143-point %37.4 #7
43.3 #153-point attempt rate43.3 #14
29.6 #14Free throw rate26.2 #21
Possessions
14.7 #8Turnover rate14.6 #7
23.8 #25Offensive rebound rate31.1 #5
28.7 #4Assists per game26.8 #14
Defense
123.9 #27Points allowed107.6 #6
1.17 #26Points allowed per possession1.03 #3
58.3 #29Opponent effective FG%49.9 #4
41.2 #30Opponent 3-point %31.1 #5
15.4 #15Turnovers forced15.7 #14
72.4 #15Defensive rebound rate74.3 #9
8.1 #18Steals per game8.8 #13
5.0 #14Blocks per game4.9 #17
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Heat

2-5 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ Lakers117–138
  • Wvs Pacers145–125
  • W@ Hawks129–117
  • Lvs Mavericks109–113
  • L@ Hornets110–115

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves

5-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Bucks112–100
  • L@ Spurs111–121
  • Wvs Clippers127–101
  • Lvs Warriors114–119
  • L@ Cavaliers125–127

A week or more of rest.