Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Feb 7, 3:30 PM ETTarget Center · at Timberwolves · Conference game

#26UTAHJazz

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Jazz and Timberwolves
UTAH	This season	MIN
1-5	Record	4-3
1-5	ATS	6-1
2-4	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 125–108 · win probability MIN 89%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

UTAH 0, MIN 8 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

MIN offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

MINBig

Three-pointers

UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%; MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 41.7% and 42.8% of their shots

MINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9; MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5

MINBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UTAH 17.0%, MIN 15.1%. Forced: UTAH 13.3%, MIN 15.6%

MINBig

UTAH offense vs MIN defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

MINBig

Recent form

Last 5: UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2; MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4

MINSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UTAH 25.7%, MIN 30.0%. Defensive: UTAH 77.1%, MIN 75.4%

MINSmall

Home court

MIN at home. This season: MIN 2-1 at home, UTAH 0-1 away

Context

Schedule so far

UTAH has played the 4th-hardest schedule, MIN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: UTAH plays 104.0 a game (12th fastest), MIN 105.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: UTAH 31.6, MIN 26.1. Allowed: UTAH 33.8, MIN 28.9

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UTAH 100%, MIN 100%. Transfers in: UTAH 0, MIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	0-1	—
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	2-1	—

Venue/role: UTAH away; MIN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 9	vs HOU	L106–140LO
Feb 11	@ IND	W131–122WO
Feb 15	vs DET	W131–129WO

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 9	@ BKN	L107–123LO
Feb 12	@ BOS	W102–92WU
Feb 15	@ CHA	L108–122LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

UTAH 7–13 MINMIN leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · UTAH 8-12 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 18, 2025-26	UTAH 111 @ MIN 147	MIN -12.5	MIN W
Jan 20, 2025-26	MIN 122 @ UTAH 127	UTAH +12.5	UTAH W
Nov 10, 2025-26	MIN 120 @ UTAH 113	UTAH +7.5	UTAH W
Nov 7, 2025-26	UTAH 97 @ MIN 137	MIN -12.5	MIN W
Apr 13, 2024-25	UTAH 105 @ MIN 116	MIN -23.5	UTAH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Jazz 0, Timberwolves 4, even 1

JazzBetterTimberwolves

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

MINSmall

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

MINBig

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

MINBig

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

Even

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

MINBig

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

JazzBetterTimberwolves

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

MINBig

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

MINBig

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

MINBig

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

UTAHSmall

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUTAH betterMIN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UTAH108.7 #24

MIN120.0 #6

Points per possession

UTAH1.05 #25

MIN1.13 #8

Pace (possessions)

UTAH104.0 #12

MIN105.4 #9

Shooting

Effective FG%

UTAH51.0 #24

MIN55.8 #6

3-point %

UTAH32.6 #23

MIN37.6 #6

3-point attempt rate

UTAH41.7 #21

MIN42.8 #16

Free throw rate

UTAH31.6 #10

MIN26.1 #21

Possessions

Turnover rate

UTAH17.0 #25

MIN15.1 #12

Offensive rebound rate

UTAH25.7 #22

MIN30.0 #7

Assists per game

UTAH26.2 #19

MIN27.3 #11

Defense

Points allowed

UTAH118.8 #25

MIN108.7 #8

Points allowed per possession

UTAH1.14 #25

MIN1.04 #4

Opponent effective FG%

UTAH53.9 #18

MIN50.5 #5

Opponent 3-point %

UTAH37.6 #25

MIN31.2 #6

Turnovers forced

UTAH13.3 #28

MIN15.6 #17

Defensive rebound rate

UTAH77.1 #4

MIN75.4 #8

Steals per game

UTAH6.2 #29

MIN9.0 #13

Blocks per game

UTAH6.5 #5

MIN4.3 #20

UTAH		MIN
Scoring
108.7 #24	Points per game	120.0 #6
1.05 #25	Points per possession	1.13 #8
104.0 #12	Pace (possessions)	105.4 #9
Shooting
51.0 #24	Effective FG%	55.8 #6
32.6 #23	3-point %	37.6 #6
41.7 #21	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #16
31.6 #10	Free throw rate	26.1 #21
Possessions
17.0 #25	Turnover rate	15.1 #12
25.7 #22	Offensive rebound rate	30.0 #7
26.2 #19	Assists per game	27.3 #11
Defense
118.8 #25	Points allowed	108.7 #8
1.14 #25	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #4
53.9 #18	Opponent effective FG%	50.5 #5
37.6 #25	Opponent 3-point %	31.2 #6
13.3 #28	Turnovers forced	15.6 #17
77.1 #4	Defensive rebound rate	75.4 #8
6.2 #29	Steals per game	9.0 #13
6.5 #5	Blocks per game	4.3 #20

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Jazz @ Timberwolves

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Jazz

Timberwolves

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Jazz

Timberwolves