1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 3
  3. DREX @ UVA
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 3

Drexel Dragons at Virginia Cavaliers

John Paul Jones Arena · at Virginia
#262DREXDrexel
@
#20UVAVirginia AP #9
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DREXThis seasonUVA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UVA 87–55 · win probability UVA 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 141.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UVA has more of the edges

DREX 0, UVA 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UVABig
DREX offense vs UVA defense
Offense 323rd of 366 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings
UVABig
UVA offense vs DREX defense
Offense 32nd of 366 against a defense 175th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
DREX has played the 199th-hardest schedule, UVA the 68th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UVABig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DREX 31.2%, UVA 37.9%. Defensive: DREX 69.0%, UVA 70.8%
UVASmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: DREX 50.6 and allows 47.1; UVA 54.6 and allows 45.8
UVASmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DREX 24%, UVA 57%. Transfers in: DREX 2, UVA 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
UVASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DREX 19.1%, UVA 16.0%. Forced: DREX 16.4%, UVA 15.4%
UVASmall
Home court
UVA at home. This season: UVA 0-0 at home, DREX 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: DREX plays 65.2 a game (341st fastest), UVA 67.6 (247th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: DREX 31.6, UVA 32.3. Allowed: DREX 35.4, UVA 32.9
Even
Three-pointers
DREX hits 35.5% and allows 30.3%; UVA hits 36.3% and allows 31.6%. Threes are 40.0% and 46.7% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UVA -31.9—
Total—141.6—
Projected score—DREX 54.9 · UVA 86.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUVA -18.8—
1H total66.3—
1H projected scoreDREX 23.7 · UVA 42.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Virginia has the better starters

Position by position: Drexel 0, Virginia 3, even 2
DrexelBetterVirginia
G J. Reed7.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 44
UVABig
G J. Dixon TR15.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 82
G A. Abram TR3.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 80
Even
G J. Vide TR12 pts · 3.1 reb · 4 ast Score 66
G D. Tingler3.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.3 ast Score 59
Even
G C. Harmon TR13.2 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 73
F P. Pagonis TR4.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 1 ast Score 6
UVABig
G S. Lewis10.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 77
F M. de LaPorterie2.9 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 12
UVABig
F T. De Ridder15.6 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 95
DrexelBetterVirginia
DREX offense323rd of 366 · -10.5
UVABig
UVA defense13th of 366 · +6.6
DREX defense175th of 366 · -3.9
UVABig
UVA offense32nd of 366 · +5.9
Backcourt-0.2 · 3 players
UVABig
Backcourt+3.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt-3.5 · 2 players
UVABig
Frontcourt+4.2 · 1 player
Bench-0.1 · 2 players
UVABig
Bench+3.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDREX betterUVA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Drexel
Guards
J. Reed19 minA. Abram11 min · TRD. Tingler10 minM. Davis2 minL. PittmanNewM. HippsNew
Forwards
P. Pagonis18 min · TRM. de LaPorterie13 minR. Akuta5 minC. EdomwonyinNewD. SimonovicNew
Virginia
Guards
J. Dixon31 min · TRJ. Vide29 min · TRC. Harmon28 min · TRS. Lewis26 minC. Mallory24 minE. Gertrude6 min
Forwards
T. De Ridder28 minC. Lang2 minK. AnyaNewS. BarksdaleNewN. AdekunleNew
Centers
J. Grunloh21 minF. IbeNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DREXUVA
Scoring
67.3 #328Points per game80.4 #57
1.03 #282Points per possession1.19 #21
65.2 #341Pace (possessions)67.6 #247
Shooting
50.6 #204Effective FG%54.6 #49
35.5 #903-point %36.3 #48
40.0 #1713-point attempt rate46.7 #36
31.6 #265Free throw rate32.3 #253
Possessions
19.1 #322Turnover rate16.0 #141
31.2 #156Offensive rebound rate37.9 #9
12.8 #226Assists per game16.3 #41
Defense
67.6 #26Points allowed68.8 #46
1.04 #64Points allowed per possession1.02 #39
47.1 #22Opponent effective FG%45.8 #8
30.3 #15Opponent 3-point %31.6 #46
16.4 #195Turnovers forced15.4 #256
69.0 #202Defensive rebound rate70.8 #120
5.8 #254Steals per game6.3 #199
3.5 #144Blocks per game6.4 #1
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Drexel

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Monmouth57–65
  • Wvs Northeastern84–77
  • L@ Hofstra51–62
  • Wvs Campbell65–60
  • Wvs Towson68–62

A week or more of rest.

Virginia

30-6 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tennessee72–79
  • Wvs Wright St82–73
  • Lvs Duke70–74
  • Wvs Miami84–62
  • Wvs NC State81–74

A week or more of rest.