Bucknell Bison at Virginia Cavaliers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 10, 9:00 PM ETJohn Paul Jones Arena · at Virginia

#20UVAVirginia AP #9

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bucknell and Virginia
BUCK	This season	UVA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UVA 91–55 · win probability UVA 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UVA has more of the edges

BUCK 0, UVA 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UVABig

BUCK offense vs UVA defense

Offense 317th of 366 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

UVABig

Three-pointers

BUCK hits 30.6% and allows 37.0%; UVA hits 36.3% and allows 31.6%. Threes are 42.8% and 46.7% of their shots

UVABig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BUCK 48.5 and allows 54.7; UVA 54.6 and allows 45.8

UVABig

UVA offense vs BUCK defense

Offense 32nd of 366 against a defense 237th, on the model’s ratings

UVABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BUCK 27.0%, UVA 37.9%. Defensive: BUCK 68.7%, UVA 70.8%

Context

Schedule so far

BUCK has played the 227th-hardest schedule, UVA the 68th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UVASmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BUCK 29.8, UVA 32.3. Allowed: BUCK 35.3, UVA 32.9

UVASmall

Home court

UVA at home. This season: UVA 0-0 at home, BUCK 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BUCK 39%, UVA 57%. Transfers in: BUCK 2, UVA 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BUCK 18.9%, UVA 16.0%. Forced: BUCK 17.9%, UVA 15.4%

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: BUCK plays 67.7 a game (242nd fastest), UVA 67.6 (247th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UVA -36.0	—
Total	—	145.4	—
Projected score	—	BUCK 54.7 · UVA 90.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UVA -21.3	—
1H total	68.0	—
1H projected score	BUCK 23.4 · UVA 44.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUCK LWLWW	14-19	42%	7-10	—
UVA WWWLL	18-18	50%	8-9	—

Venue/role: BUCK away; UVA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUCK UOOUO	13-20	39%	10-23
UVA OUOOO	16-20	44%	30-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUCK	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
UVA	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bucknell

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	vs COLU	No recent meeting
Nov 17	vs AKR	L77–97WO
Nov 21	vs SIE	L58–71LU

Virginia

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ MD	W80–72LU
Nov 17	vs ODU	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs L-MD	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucknell

33 games played

Straight up

10-23

30% wins

Against the spread

14-19

42% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-20

39% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2330%

W W L L L L L L L L L W L L W L W W L L L L W W L L L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1942%

W W L L L L W W L W L W L L W L L W L L L W W W L L L L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-2039%

U U U O U U U U O O U U U U U U U O O O U O O U U O O U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDEL	W 78-70	-2.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 148
Nov 7	@MSM	W 73-62	+1.5	W +12.5	143.5	U 135
Nov 11	@PRIN	L 63-73	+4.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 14	vsHOF	L 77-83	+4.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 160
Nov 17	@PITT	L 50-84	+16.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 134
Nov 20	@SJU	L 49-97	+28.5	L −19.5	158.5	U 146
Nov 24	vsBGSU	L 66-71	+10.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsBUF	L 71-73	+4.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 30	vsCOR	L 72-101	+5.5	L −23.5	159.5	O 173
Dec 3	@AKR	L 77-97	+23.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 174
Dec 6	vsUMBC	L 66-73	-1.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 9	@RID	W 51-38	-2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 89
Dec 20	@IOWA	L 39-94	+25.5	L −29.5	133.5	U 133
Dec 31	@HC	L 58-65	-1.5	L −8.5	133.5	U 123
Jan 3	vsLEH	W 72-65	-4.5	W +2.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 7	@NAVY	L 55-76	+8.5	L −12.5	137.5	U 131
Jan 10	vsL-MD	W 70-67	-6.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 137
Jan 14	vsLAF	W 76-69	-2.5	W +4.5	137.5	O 145
Jan 17	@COLG	L 76-95	+8.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 21	vsARMY	L 84-87	-4.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 171
Jan 24	@L-MD	L 62-67	+2.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 129
Jan 28	@LAF	L 79-81	+4.5	W +2.5	138.5	O 160
Jan 31	vsBU	W 103-97	+1.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 200
Feb 4	@AMER	W 60-59	+7.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 119
Feb 7	vsCOLG	L 59-78	+5.5	L −13.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 9	vsNAVY	L 60-76	+6.5	L −9.5	135.5	O 136
Feb 14	@BU	L 69-82	+5.5	L −7.5	137.5	O 151
Feb 18	vsAMER	L 57-75	+3.5	L −14.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 22	vsHC	L 63-72	-2.5	L −11.5	142.5	U 135
Feb 25	@ARMY	W 75-73	+2.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 148
Feb 28	@LEH	L 79-89	+5.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 168
Mar 3	vsARMY	W 65-55	-1.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 120
Mar 5	@NAVY	L 69-74	+15.5	W +10.5	133.5	O 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

+5.5

MSM

W 73-62

+12.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−5.5

HOF

L 77-83

−1.5

PITT

L 50-84

−17.5

SJU

L 49-97

−19.5

BGSU

L 66-71

+5.5

BUF

L 71-73

+2.5

COR

L 72-101

−23.5

AKR

L 77-97

+3.5

UMBC

L 66-73

−8.5

RID

W 51-38

+10.5

IOWA

L 39-94

−29.5

L 58-65

−8.5

LEH

W 72-65

+2.5

NAVY

L 55-76

−12.5

L-MD

W 70-67

−3.5

LAF

W 76-69

+4.5

COLG

L 76-95

−10.5

ARMY

L 84-87

−7.5

L-MD

L 62-67

−2.5

LAF

L 79-81

+2.5

W 103-97

+7.5

AMER

W 60-59

+8.5

COLG

L 59-78

−13.5

NAVY

L 60-76

−9.5

L 69-82

−7.5

AMER

L 57-75

−14.5

L 63-72

−11.5

ARMY

W 75-73

+4.5

LEH

L 79-89

−4.5

ARMY

W 65-55

+8.5

NAVY

L 69-74

+10.5

covered 14didn’t cover 19avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

−1.5

MSM

W 73-62

−8.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−10.5

HOF

L 77-83

+20.5

PITT

L 50-84

−7.5

SJU

L 49-97

−12.5

BGSU

L 66-71

−7.5

BUF

L 71-73

−2.5

COR

L 72-101

+13.5

AKR

L 77-97

+16.5

UMBC

L 66-73

−4.5

RID

W 51-38

−46.5

IOWA

L 39-94

−0.5

L 58-65

−10.5

LEH

W 72-65

−0.5

NAVY

L 55-76

−6.5

L-MD

W 70-67

−6.5

LAF

W 76-69

+7.5

COLG

L 76-95

+31.5

ARMY

L 84-87

+26.5

L-MD

L 62-67

−18.5

LAF

L 79-81

+21.5

W 103-97

+61.5

AMER

W 60-59

−22.5

COLG

L 59-78

−4.5

NAVY

L 60-76

+0.5

L 69-82

+13.5

AMER

L 57-75

−8.5

L 63-72

−7.5

ARMY

W 75-73

+5.5

LEH

L 79-89

+29.5

ARMY

W 65-55

−24.5

NAVY

L 69-74

+9.5

over 13under 20avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Virginia

36 games played

Straight up

30-6

83% wins

Against the spread

18-18

50% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-20

44% overs · avg +0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

30-683%

W W W W W L W W W W W W L W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1850%

W L W W W L L W W L L W L W W W W W L L L W L L L W L W L L L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-2044%

U U U O O U O O O O U U O U U U U U O O U U U U U O O U U U O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsRID	W 87-53	-26.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 140
Nov 7	vsNCCU	W 81-62	-34.5	L −15.5	151.5	U 143
Nov 11	vsHAMP	W 91-53	-24.5	W +13.5	148.5	U 144
Nov 15	vsMRSH	W 104-78	-20.5	W +5.5	155.5	O 182
Nov 21	vsNU	W 83-78	-4.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 161
Nov 23	vsBTLR	L 73-80	-6.5	L −13.5	155.5	U 153
Nov 28	vsQUC	W 94-69	-25.5	L −0.5	160.5	O 163
Dec 3	@TEX	W 88-69	+3.5	W +22.5	154.5	O 157
Dec 6	vsDAY	W 86-73	-5.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 159
Dec 9	vsUMES	W 84-60	-36.5	L −12.5	134.5	O 144
Dec 20	vsMD	W 80-72	-16.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 152
Dec 22	vsAMER	W 95-51	-27.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 31	@VT	L 85-95	-5.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 180
Jan 3	@NCSU	W 76-61	+4.5	W +19.5	151.5	U 137
Jan 7	vsCAL	W 84-60	-14.5	W +9.5	148.5	U 144
Jan 10	vsSTAN	W 70-55	-12.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 125
Jan 13	@LOU	W 79-70	+4.5	W +13.5	154.5	U 149
Jan 17	@SMU	W 72-68	-2.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 140
Jan 24	vsUNC	L 80-85	-6.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 165
Jan 27	@ND	W 100-97	-9.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 197
Jan 31	@BC	W 73-66	-13.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 139
Feb 3	vsPITT	W 67-47	-12.5	W +7.5	142.5	U 114
Feb 7	vsSYR	W 72-59	-13.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 131
Feb 10	@FSU	W 61-58	-8.5	L −5.5	155.5	U 119
Feb 14	vsOSU	W 70-66	-5.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 136
Feb 18	@GT	W 94-68	-13.5	W +12.5	150.5	O 162
Feb 21	vsMIA	W 86-83	-7.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 169
Feb 24	vsNCSU	W 90-61	-6.5	W +22.5	151.5	U 151
Feb 28	@DUKE	L 51-77	+9.5	L −16.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 3	vsWAKE	W 75-70	-14.5	L −9.5	150.5	U 145
Mar 7	vsVT	W 76-72	-11.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 148
Mar 12	vsNCSU	W 81-74	-6.5	W +0.5	153.5	O 155
Mar 13	vsMIA	W 84-62	-3.5	W +18.5	146.5	U 146
Mar 14	vsDUKE	L 70-74	+6.5	W +2.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 20	vsWRST	W 82-73	-17.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 155
Mar 22	vsTENN	L 72-79	+1.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RID

W 87-53

+7.5

NCCU

W 81-62

−15.5

HAMP

W 91-53

+13.5

MRSH

W 104-78

+5.5

W 83-78

+0.5

BTLR

L 73-80

−13.5

QUC

W 94-69

−0.5

TEX

W 88-69

+22.5

DAY

W 86-73

+7.5

UMES

W 84-60

−12.5

W 80-72

−8.5

AMER

W 95-51

+16.5

L 85-95

−15.5

NCSU

W 76-61

+19.5

CAL

W 84-60

+9.5

STAN

W 70-55

+2.5

LOU

W 79-70

+13.5

SMU

W 72-68

+1.5

UNC

L 80-85

−11.5

W 100-97

−6.5

W 73-66

−6.5

PITT

W 67-47

+7.5

SYR

W 72-59

−0.5

FSU

W 61-58

−5.5

OSU

W 70-66

−1.5

W 94-68

+12.5

MIA

W 86-83

−4.5

NCSU

W 90-61

+22.5

DUKE

L 51-77

−16.5

WAKE

W 75-70

−9.5

W 76-72

−7.5

NCSU

W 81-74

+0.5

MIA

W 84-62

+18.5

DUKE

L 70-74

+2.5

WRST

W 82-73

−8.5

TENN

L 72-79

−5.5

covered 18didn’t cover 18avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RID

W 87-53

−8.5

NCCU

W 81-62

−8.5

HAMP

W 91-53

−4.5

MRSH

W 104-78

+26.5

W 83-78

+11.5

BTLR

L 73-80

−2.5

QUC

W 94-69

+2.5

TEX

W 88-69

+2.5

DAY

W 86-73

+11.5

UMES

W 84-60

+9.5

W 80-72

−1.5

AMER

W 95-51

−7.5

L 85-95

+26.5

NCSU

W 76-61

−14.5

CAL

W 84-60

−4.5

STAN

W 70-55

−18.5

LOU

W 79-70

−5.5

SMU

W 72-68

−13.5

UNC

L 80-85

+12.5

W 100-97

+51.5

W 73-66

−2.5

PITT

W 67-47

−28.5

SYR

W 72-59

−16.5

FSU

W 61-58

−36.5

OSU

W 70-66

−10.5

W 94-68

+11.5

MIA

W 86-83

+23.5

NCSU

W 90-61

−0.5

DUKE

L 51-77

−15.5

WAKE

W 75-70

−5.5

W 76-72

+2.5

NCSU

W 81-74

+1.5

MIA

W 84-62

−0.5

DUKE

L 70-74

+3.5

WRST

W 82-73

+8.5

TENN

L 72-79

+13.5

over 16under 20avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Virginia has the better starters

Position by position: Bucknell 0, Virginia 4, even 1

BucknellBetterVirginia

G J. Williams7.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 4 ast Score 23

UVABig

G J. Dixon TR15.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 82

G A. Pachucki5.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 25

UVABig

G J. Vide TR12 pts · 3.1 reb · 4 ast Score 66

G K. Marshall TR3.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Not ranked

No call

G C. Harmon TR13.2 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 73

G J. Meachem1.5 pts · 0.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 2

UVABig

G S. Lewis10.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 77

F L. Soroa Schaller TR5.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 13

UVABig

F T. De Ridder15.6 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 95

BucknellBetterVirginia

BUCK offense317th of 366 · -10.4

UVABig

UVA defense13th of 366 · +6.6

BUCK defense237th of 366 · -6.2

UVABig

UVA offense32nd of 366 · +5.9

Backcourt-6.2 · 4 players

UVABig

Backcourt+3.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player

UVABig

Frontcourt+4.2 · 1 player

Bench-0.9 · 3 players

UVABig

Bench+3.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBUCK betterUVA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bucknell

Guards

J. Williams33 minA. Pachucki21 minK. Marshall17 min · TRJ. Meachem10 minM. Lange3 minR. LamunoNew

Forwards

L. Soroa Schaller21 min · TRP. O'Brien10 minK. Welch2 minE. Marten-ConeyNewL. BergsengNewA. RousseauNew

Centers

D. KennardNew

Virginia

Guards

J. Dixon31 min · TRJ. Vide29 min · TRC. Harmon28 min · TRS. Lewis26 minC. Mallory24 minE. Gertrude6 min

Forwards

T. De Ridder28 minC. Lang2 minK. AnyaNewS. BarksdaleNewN. AdekunleNew

Centers

J. Grunloh21 minF. IbeNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BUCK67.4 #327

UVA80.4 #57

Points per possession

BUCK0.99 #332

UVA1.19 #21

Pace (possessions)

BUCK67.7 #242

UVA67.6 #247

Shooting

Effective FG%

BUCK48.5 #304

UVA54.6 #49

3-point %

BUCK30.6 #328

UVA36.3 #48

3-point attempt rate

BUCK42.8 #123

UVA46.7 #36

Free throw rate

BUCK29.8 #314

UVA32.3 #253

Possessions

Turnover rate

BUCK18.9 #319

UVA16.0 #141

Offensive rebound rate

BUCK27.0 #295

UVA37.9 #9

Assists per game

BUCK12.7 #235

UVA16.3 #41

Defense

Points allowed

BUCK76.3 #226

UVA68.8 #46

Points allowed per possession

BUCK1.13 #289

UVA1.02 #39

Opponent effective FG%

BUCK54.7 #323

UVA45.8 #8

Opponent 3-point %

BUCK37.0 #344

UVA31.6 #46

Turnovers forced

BUCK17.9 #100

UVA15.4 #256

Defensive rebound rate

BUCK68.7 #216

UVA70.8 #120

Steals per game

BUCK7.2 #105

UVA6.3 #199

Blocks per game

BUCK1.8 #354

UVA6.4 #1

BUCK		UVA
Scoring
67.4 #327	Points per game	80.4 #57
0.99 #332	Points per possession	1.19 #21
67.7 #242	Pace (possessions)	67.6 #247
Shooting
48.5 #304	Effective FG%	54.6 #49
30.6 #328	3-point %	36.3 #48
42.8 #123	3-point attempt rate	46.7 #36
29.8 #314	Free throw rate	32.3 #253
Possessions
18.9 #319	Turnover rate	16.0 #141
27.0 #295	Offensive rebound rate	37.9 #9
12.7 #235	Assists per game	16.3 #41
Defense
76.3 #226	Points allowed	68.8 #46
1.13 #289	Points allowed per possession	1.02 #39
54.7 #323	Opponent effective FG%	45.8 #8
37.0 #344	Opponent 3-point %	31.6 #46
17.9 #100	Turnovers forced	15.4 #256
68.7 #216	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #120
7.2 #105	Steals per game	6.3 #199
1.8 #354	Blocks per game	6.4 #1

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bucknell

10-23 in 2025-26 overall · 7-13 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Navy69–74
Wvs Army65–55
L@ Lehigh79–89
W@ Army75–73
Lvs Holy Cross63–72

A week or more of rest.

Virginia

30-6 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Tennessee72–79
Wvs Wright St82–73
Lvs Duke70–74
Wvs Miami84–62
Wvs NC State81–74

A week or more of rest.

Bucknell Bison at Virginia Cavaliers

What could decide it: UVA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Bucknell

Virginia

Virginia has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bucknell

Virginia